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tsptalk's Market Talk
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bmneveu
Well-known member
10-Year Treasury Yield now over 2.9%...
Rising rates are not typically good for the housing or stock markets, right?
It didn't seem to hurt in the market 2013, but theoretically, a guaranteed 3% return could be a draw for some investors.
Lakebound
Member
Let me guess ... Bull Flag. ;swear
Still possible, and it sure looks like one, but no breakout yet. Something tells me Monday will be a big day -- just don't know if it will be up or down.
Lakebound
Member
Still possible, and it sure looks like one, but no breakout yet. Something tells me Monday will be a big day -- just don't know if it will be up or down.
Futures are pointing North so far.
Nice intraday bounce, but here comes the last hour.
The Dow is still lagging, down 180+, but the S&P is flat and small caps are showing strong relative strength.
I am hardly ever surprised when the market does the opposite of the obvious, so heading into the weekend we might expect some selling, so maybe we should expect the opposite?
The opposite: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q40IwQF65a4&t=65s
The Dow is still lagging, down 180+, but the S&P is flat and small caps are showing strong relative strength.
I am hardly ever surprised when the market does the opposite of the obvious, so heading into the weekend we might expect some selling, so maybe we should expect the opposite?
The opposite: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q40IwQF65a4&t=65s
After a series of more minor economic reports coming in lighter than expected while yields were rising, investors and the market were acting tepidly. Now this strong jobs report, coupled with a non-threatening wage gain, gave the tepid bulls an excuse to buy today.
Historically however, when jobs reports came in 50,000 above or below estimates the ensuing rally or sell-off that came with it, had a tendency to reverse in the coming days. Whether that's the case this time, I don't know. We saw what happened in 2017 where we needed to throw "historically" out the window.
Historically however, when jobs reports came in 50,000 above or below estimates the ensuing rally or sell-off that came with it, had a tendency to reverse in the coming days. Whether that's the case this time, I don't know. We saw what happened in 2017 where we needed to throw "historically" out the window.
We had a couple of interesting intra-day breakdowns by the S&P and Nasdaq as far as support lines. The S&P 500 is clinging to the 50-day EMA so far, but if that goes, there's not much support below that. Is this the big bear flags starting to break?
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yesterdaysnews
New member
Looks like it may be the historical retesting of the low from Feb. If it dips lower and goes on, guessing we are entering a recession.
weatherweenie
Well-known member
Yikes. Closed at 1348 and change.
The Small caps (s-fund) are desperately holding at some key support. If it fails, next stop would be 1340, but 1360 is the key level now.
The 200-day moving averages are being given great respect so far. As mentioned in today's commentary there is also some decent longer-term support rising and landing in the same area as these MA's. Can the low be this clean, or do we need another washout?
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