Good Evening Warn88. Thank you for your interest. There are 4 components:
1. First Component is The Trend, 8 presidential/political years. 1styear it is usually the lowest. 2nd year better. 3er year muchexcellent. 4th year outstanding to gain re-election. 5th year keep theinertia, 6th year begin decline, 7th year continue decline, 8th year is usuallycorrected. This political cycle had heavy turmoil specially this year with theCOVID-19. Based on these cycles we may compare all the historical 1st years with1st years, 2nd years with 2nd year, 3er years with 3er year.... and seewhich dates goes up on all of them and forecast which dates to enter get in andwhich dates to exit get out.
2. Second Component is The Cycle: The Moon Cycles have significant effect inthe investors executions. FEAR, GREED due to the tie of the 70-80% body's liquidsand hormones. The bottomline is to BUY in or during the New Moonafter a "W" signal and SELL in or during the Full Moon without delaynor being greedy. : - )
3. Third Component is The Seasonal: There are many of them... Christmas,Spring, Summer, School, Fiscal Year, allergies, FOMC Meetings etc.the bottom line you BUY in Halloween (October 31) and SELL in April Full (1st).Tom also used to provide Seasonality Charts in the pass. There are many other Charts too. Wonder if all the technical analysis get into this component.
4. Fourth Component is the Random One, Noises from the News, such a Vaccinesfrom Pfizer, MODERNA, Others... New Administration, the 737 Airplane forBoeing, Oil, Energy, Unemployment, New Houses Permits, and many News Indicators. Thiscomponent move also the market and we must be informed investors.
Once these Four Components get SYNTHESIZED the combination is VERYPROFITABLE with MINIMUM LOSES.
Not sure if was able to answer your question(s), buthope these ideas provide some enhancements to the TSPTalk Team for conversation. Please do not hesitate to keep in touch. Greatly appreciated. Have aVery Profitable 2021.