The bulls fought back against the bear market this week, but do they have the stamina to turn the market higher long-term? We've been in a bear market for some time now but even in bear markets there are opportunities to buy. The buyers went to work early this week to start the TSP stock funds with a gains over 2% and more than 3% for the S-fund on Monday alone. There was follow through by the bulls on Tuesday but it was a battle for direction for the rest of the week up to Friday where the bulls took control for the second half of the day lifting the TSP funds to more than 3% for the week with the C-fund leading with a gain of 4.75%.
It was a hard week for those in the market looking for entry and exits points, the market didn't always follow through on its initial action. For example, at the TSP trading deadline on Thursday October 20th, the S&P 500 was off its highs but still held a gain of 0.46%, yet the C-fund ended the day down 0.78%. This type of action makes it difficult to make short-term trades in the TSP. But does this sign of strength by the bulls entice us to believe a leg higher underway?
It's very possible but hard to hold as likely. The market as essentially flattened and in a trading channel since gapping up to start October. The Federal Reserve is still a problem for would be long-term investors. Inflation numbers are still high yet many are questioning if they are raising rates too aggressively and doing more damage than good. They may not see it that way and we hope they are smarter than the average economists. Either way there will be no let up in the near future. The is nearly a 100% probability at this point of a 0.75% rate increase by the Fed coming at the beginning of November.
However, this week showed us the bulls are hungry for action. We're seeing an increase in optimism towards the near future of market. Buy low, sell high right? Well we are low; all three TSP stock funds are down more than 20% even after the gains this week. The action is volatile and choppy right now but in that is opportunity. Pay attention, make a plan, and be smart. I recommend reading the Tom's Market Commentary for great insight everyday.
Looking for an edge on your TSP return? Get the Last Look Report for as low as $4.19 / month. The report is a daily email on the TSP Talk AutoTracker moves, news, forum threads, and more before the IFT deadline. The service is aimed to help you make your own IFT decisions by giving you relative information 30 min prior to the deadline including where the members of TSP Talk are moving their money.
Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending October 21:
SPY (C-fund) went for another test of the 20-day EMA this week and was able to close above it for the first time in over a month. This took an initial gap up on Monday to start the week off with strength that carried for most of the week. The ETF closed near its highs but those highs were established initially intraday Tuesday so it was a rollercoaster of a week to get back there. The C-fund led the TSP funds with a gain of 4.75%.
The Dow Jones US Completion Index (S-fund) had a similar with with the additional technical move of a open gap filled on Tuesday. The index also closed above its 20-day EMA for the week. The S-fund did underperform the C-fund by 1% and ended the week with a gain of 3.75%.
EFA (I-fund) had a similar performance to the S-fund yet closed for the week with a gain of 3.52%. This is really good if you don't compare to the gains of the C and S-funds. There is still an open gap above to remember but the ETF will need a real change in character to fill it any time soon.
Continually underperforming itself is the BND (F-fund). The F-fund closed this week down 1.06% for its tenth straight week of losses. The ETF BND is even falling further from its 20-day EMA.
Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.
Thomas A Crowley
wwww.tsptalk.com
Last Look Report
Facebook | Twitter
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
It was a hard week for those in the market looking for entry and exits points, the market didn't always follow through on its initial action. For example, at the TSP trading deadline on Thursday October 20th, the S&P 500 was off its highs but still held a gain of 0.46%, yet the C-fund ended the day down 0.78%. This type of action makes it difficult to make short-term trades in the TSP. But does this sign of strength by the bulls entice us to believe a leg higher underway?
It's very possible but hard to hold as likely. The market as essentially flattened and in a trading channel since gapping up to start October. The Federal Reserve is still a problem for would be long-term investors. Inflation numbers are still high yet many are questioning if they are raising rates too aggressively and doing more damage than good. They may not see it that way and we hope they are smarter than the average economists. Either way there will be no let up in the near future. The is nearly a 100% probability at this point of a 0.75% rate increase by the Fed coming at the beginning of November.
However, this week showed us the bulls are hungry for action. We're seeing an increase in optimism towards the near future of market. Buy low, sell high right? Well we are low; all three TSP stock funds are down more than 20% even after the gains this week. The action is volatile and choppy right now but in that is opportunity. Pay attention, make a plan, and be smart. I recommend reading the Tom's Market Commentary for great insight everyday.
Looking for an edge on your TSP return? Get the Last Look Report for as low as $4.19 / month. The report is a daily email on the TSP Talk AutoTracker moves, news, forum threads, and more before the IFT deadline. The service is aimed to help you make your own IFT decisions by giving you relative information 30 min prior to the deadline including where the members of TSP Talk are moving their money.
Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending October 21:
SPY (C-fund) went for another test of the 20-day EMA this week and was able to close above it for the first time in over a month. This took an initial gap up on Monday to start the week off with strength that carried for most of the week. The ETF closed near its highs but those highs were established initially intraday Tuesday so it was a rollercoaster of a week to get back there. The C-fund led the TSP funds with a gain of 4.75%.
The Dow Jones US Completion Index (S-fund) had a similar with with the additional technical move of a open gap filled on Tuesday. The index also closed above its 20-day EMA for the week. The S-fund did underperform the C-fund by 1% and ended the week with a gain of 3.75%.
EFA (I-fund) had a similar performance to the S-fund yet closed for the week with a gain of 3.52%. This is really good if you don't compare to the gains of the C and S-funds. There is still an open gap above to remember but the ETF will need a real change in character to fill it any time soon.
Continually underperforming itself is the BND (F-fund). The F-fund closed this week down 1.06% for its tenth straight week of losses. The ETF BND is even falling further from its 20-day EMA.
Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.
Thomas A Crowley
wwww.tsptalk.com
Last Look Report
Facebook | Twitter
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
