TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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This week can be divided into two chapters; the strong rally in stocks Monday and Tuesday, followed by the three straight day of losses to end the week. For all TSP stock funds, the three days of losses were not enough to erase the cumulative losses produce Monday and Tuesday. The S-fund was the most impressive with a gain over 7% between Monday and Tuesday yet ended the week with just a 2.54%.

Friday was a defining day for the week with the release of the September Jobs Report. Bulls were hopeful for a lackluster report that would persuade a slow down in rate increase from the Federal Reserve, rather the report was strong enough to pretty much lock in another 0.75 rate hike at the beginning of November. The S-fund fell 3.2% on Friday yet still held the best return for the week among the TSP funds.

Next week investors will be anticipation the Consumer Price Index coming on Thursday. The year over year increase is expected to drop from the previous month.

Third quarter earnings are around the corner and will put the market to the test soon.


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Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending October 7:

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S&P 500 (C-fund) rallied early in the week until it reached its 20-day EMA. The gains were steep and quick so there was a sigh of relief selling that continued to end the week. The C-fund rose 5.74% in just the first two days of the week. Over the next three days the C-fund fell 3.95% to leave an overall gain of 1.56% from the initial rally.

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DWCPF (S-fund) gapped up Tuesday and did close above its 20-day EMA. Like the S&P 500, DWCPF gave back a majority of the gains produced Monday and Tuesday over the last three days. The S-fund gained a remarkable 7.02% between Monday and Tuesday, but then gave back 4.21% from Wednesday through Friday. With that, the S-fund led the TSP funds for the week with a 2.54% net gain.

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EFA (I-fund) also gapped up Tuesday and filled that gap before the week was over. The I-fund was up 6.30% in the first two days of the week and followed that by declining 4.39% over the last three days of the week. That netted the I-fund with a 1.63% gain for the week to outperform the C-fund.

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Bonds followed stocks this week with two days of gains followed by three days of losses. The difference is the losses out sized the early gains. BND (F-fund) gapped down Wednesday sending the price back below the resistance it had passed the day before. The F-fund lagged the TSP funds with a loss of 0.23%. The F-fund has now declined eight straight weeks.

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Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley

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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
 
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