The bulls and bear fought for direction the first half of the week, but the bulls came out on top to finish the week further building on the gains produced the previous week. The S&P 500 (C-fund) was up 1.81% for the week. The small cap S-fund ended just above even for the week holding onto the previous week's gains after giving up 0.27% on Friday. Meanwhile the foreign market I-fund fell 0.50% for the week.
Many are trying to explain the market's action over the last couple weeks. What is the market pricing in exactly? At face value the market continues to face a war that involves one of the world's largest oil suppliers along with a hawkish Fed set to raise rates aggressively over the next year to combat inflation. The economic consequences of Russia's invasion of Ukraine leave too much uncertainty for the market to be comfortable, and the Federal Reserve is on a campaign to deliberately slow down the economy. Yet the S&P 500 is up more than 8.1% over the last two weeks.
As bad as things can get, the economy is still hot and investors still have money to put to work. Stocks spent the first two and a half months pricing in the worst and it left stocks at a discounted price and investors are holding cash that is valuably detrimental to hold onto while the rate of inflation is at multi decade highs. Momentum of the last two weeks has given the bulls creditability and that is enough to persuade more to take on risky assets when a higher return is necessary. I wouldn't expect a direct climb to new highs in the indices but the fight for value in stock prices will be more competitive for both buyers and sellers.
Bond prices have dropped at phenomenal weekly rates for an asset that is typical sought out for its stability. The F-fund is now underperforming the C-fund for the year with a 6.74% loss in less than three months compared to the C-fund's 4.34% loss.
Looking for an edge on your TSP return? Get the Last Look Report for as low as $4.19 / month. The report is a daily email on the TSP AutoTracker moves, news, forum threads, and more before the IFT deadline. The service is aimed to help you make your own IFT decisions by giving you relative information 30 min prior to the deadline including where the members of TSP Talk are moving their money.
Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending March 25:
SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) is on the rise again but its rate decelerated this week as its heads towards the highs of February. That will be a significant technical challenge if price continue higher next week. At the same time the major moving averages will likely be tested for support. The last week and a half has been the first stretch for this ETF above its 50-day EMA since the beginning of 2022. The C-fund led the TSP funds for the week with a 1.8% gain, its two week return is 8.1%, and its return for 2022 is now -4.34%.
The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) flattened out from last week's big stretch higher. The index spent the week jumping around its 50-day EMA. It was a draw between the bulls and bears but the bulls were able to hold onto the gains of the previous week while the bears kept from the price building on itself despite the rise in large cap stock prices. There is an open gap below that technical analysts will keep an eye on for a price to watch. The S-fund gained 0.06% for the week.
EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) ended the previous week at its 50-day EMA and could not break above it this week. EFA has not spent multiple days above its 50-day EMA since early January. There is also an open gap left behind that is under its 20-day EMA but off the March lows. The I-fund lagged the TSP stock funds for the week with a 0.50% loss.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) has an ugly chart over the last three months. Nobody is attracted to a chart that starts in the top left corner and ends in the bottom right corner. Bond prices have slipped from the bulls and the weekly drops have become unreasonable to typical bond market movement. Three open gaps sit above the current price and despite no attempt to inch toward them, they will be on investors minds if the ETF makes a comeback. The ETF did end the week even with a trend line that may hold as support. The F-fund fell 1.81% for the week and now lags the C-fund for its yearly return that has grown to -6.74% against the C-fund 4.34% loss.
Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.
Thomas A Crowley
wwww.tsptalk.com
Last Look Report
Facebook | Twitter
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Many are trying to explain the market's action over the last couple weeks. What is the market pricing in exactly? At face value the market continues to face a war that involves one of the world's largest oil suppliers along with a hawkish Fed set to raise rates aggressively over the next year to combat inflation. The economic consequences of Russia's invasion of Ukraine leave too much uncertainty for the market to be comfortable, and the Federal Reserve is on a campaign to deliberately slow down the economy. Yet the S&P 500 is up more than 8.1% over the last two weeks.
As bad as things can get, the economy is still hot and investors still have money to put to work. Stocks spent the first two and a half months pricing in the worst and it left stocks at a discounted price and investors are holding cash that is valuably detrimental to hold onto while the rate of inflation is at multi decade highs. Momentum of the last two weeks has given the bulls creditability and that is enough to persuade more to take on risky assets when a higher return is necessary. I wouldn't expect a direct climb to new highs in the indices but the fight for value in stock prices will be more competitive for both buyers and sellers.
Bond prices have dropped at phenomenal weekly rates for an asset that is typical sought out for its stability. The F-fund is now underperforming the C-fund for the year with a 6.74% loss in less than three months compared to the C-fund's 4.34% loss.
Looking for an edge on your TSP return? Get the Last Look Report for as low as $4.19 / month. The report is a daily email on the TSP AutoTracker moves, news, forum threads, and more before the IFT deadline. The service is aimed to help you make your own IFT decisions by giving you relative information 30 min prior to the deadline including where the members of TSP Talk are moving their money.
Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending March 25:
SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) is on the rise again but its rate decelerated this week as its heads towards the highs of February. That will be a significant technical challenge if price continue higher next week. At the same time the major moving averages will likely be tested for support. The last week and a half has been the first stretch for this ETF above its 50-day EMA since the beginning of 2022. The C-fund led the TSP funds for the week with a 1.8% gain, its two week return is 8.1%, and its return for 2022 is now -4.34%.
The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) flattened out from last week's big stretch higher. The index spent the week jumping around its 50-day EMA. It was a draw between the bulls and bears but the bulls were able to hold onto the gains of the previous week while the bears kept from the price building on itself despite the rise in large cap stock prices. There is an open gap below that technical analysts will keep an eye on for a price to watch. The S-fund gained 0.06% for the week.
EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) ended the previous week at its 50-day EMA and could not break above it this week. EFA has not spent multiple days above its 50-day EMA since early January. There is also an open gap left behind that is under its 20-day EMA but off the March lows. The I-fund lagged the TSP stock funds for the week with a 0.50% loss.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) has an ugly chart over the last three months. Nobody is attracted to a chart that starts in the top left corner and ends in the bottom right corner. Bond prices have slipped from the bulls and the weekly drops have become unreasonable to typical bond market movement. Three open gaps sit above the current price and despite no attempt to inch toward them, they will be on investors minds if the ETF makes a comeback. The ETF did end the week even with a trend line that may hold as support. The F-fund fell 1.81% for the week and now lags the C-fund for its yearly return that has grown to -6.74% against the C-fund 4.34% loss.
Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.
Thomas A Crowley
wwww.tsptalk.com
Last Look Report
Facebook | Twitter
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
