A relief sell-off in oil prices gave way to a rally in stocks that lasted the rest of the week. Momentum buying rolled through the rest of the week as the underinvested feared missing out on gains. Indices rolled on to higher highs through Thursday and Friday giving the S&P 500 (C-fund) its best week since November 2020. The S and I-fund outperformed the large cap C-fund with both finishing with more than 7% in gains while the C-fund was up 'just' 6.19%.
This rally came alongside the Federal Reserve raising rates for the first time since 2018 and suggesting six more rate hikes this year. Now either investors are really worried about inflation and invite a hawkish Fed, or the worst was already priced in, and buyers were eager to get back in at the sign of life early in the week. There is potential that this weekend could kill the momentum and it's reasonable to expect relief selling next week. But this week's rally has lifted spirits enough that good foundations for support were established and dip buyer will be looking for their next fix. There also lives the possibility of this rally continues with enough cash at hand and FOMO keeping it going. But there is still a war going on, inflation is still at multiple decades highs, and there is another covid outbreak in China. There is enough uncertainty to spook investors, but this week gave some credibility to the bulls.
Downward resistant trend lines were broken in the TSP stock fund charts. The technical expectation is for those trend lines to next be tested as support before a real leg forward can continue. But beware that these are volatile and emotional times in the market and the action may not be clear cut.
Bonds fell deeper this week while stocks rallied. The F-fund lost 0.37% for the week.
Looking for an edge on your TSP return? Get the Last Look Report for as low as $4.19 / month. The report is a daily email on the TSP AutoTracker moves, news, forum threads, and more before the IFT deadline. The service is aimed to help you make your own IFT decisions by giving you relative information 30 min prior to the deadline including where the members of TSP Talk are moving their money.
Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending March 18:
SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) broke through multiple lines of resistance this week. Three major moving averages were surpassed in the last three days of trading: the 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, and the 200-day EMA. The ETF also traded above declining resistance that starts from the high at the beginning of the year. This will give the bulls some confidence going forward, and those previous resistance markers may become support if tested. The C-fund gained 6.19% yet lagged the S and I-funds for the week.
The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) broke above its 20 and 50-day EMAs this week and broke through declining resistance of the last three months' peaks. However, the rally did end at the highs of the trading surrounding the beginning of March. This may not be too significant but could give investors a reason to take profits from the latest rally. An open gap was also left behind Wednesday. The S-fund gained 7.09% for the week.
EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) jumped up Wednesday forming an open gap but ended the day above its 20-day EMA. Instead of filling the open gap, momentum pushed the ETF up to its 50-day EMA where it ended at its high for the week. The I-fund led the TSP funds this week with a 7.25%. The I-fund still remains down 0.08% for March.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) gapped down to start the week and slowly rose to mostly fill that open gap. It was ten cents off from the previous Friday's low. Previous lows earlier in March lined up to act as a line of resistance that may keep this ETF in a trading channel. The F-fund lagged the TSP funds this week with a loss of 0.37%.
Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.
Thomas A Crowley
wwww.tsptalk.com
Last Look Report
Facebook | Twitter
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
This rally came alongside the Federal Reserve raising rates for the first time since 2018 and suggesting six more rate hikes this year. Now either investors are really worried about inflation and invite a hawkish Fed, or the worst was already priced in, and buyers were eager to get back in at the sign of life early in the week. There is potential that this weekend could kill the momentum and it's reasonable to expect relief selling next week. But this week's rally has lifted spirits enough that good foundations for support were established and dip buyer will be looking for their next fix. There also lives the possibility of this rally continues with enough cash at hand and FOMO keeping it going. But there is still a war going on, inflation is still at multiple decades highs, and there is another covid outbreak in China. There is enough uncertainty to spook investors, but this week gave some credibility to the bulls.
Downward resistant trend lines were broken in the TSP stock fund charts. The technical expectation is for those trend lines to next be tested as support before a real leg forward can continue. But beware that these are volatile and emotional times in the market and the action may not be clear cut.
Bonds fell deeper this week while stocks rallied. The F-fund lost 0.37% for the week.
Looking for an edge on your TSP return? Get the Last Look Report for as low as $4.19 / month. The report is a daily email on the TSP AutoTracker moves, news, forum threads, and more before the IFT deadline. The service is aimed to help you make your own IFT decisions by giving you relative information 30 min prior to the deadline including where the members of TSP Talk are moving their money.
Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending March 18:
SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) broke through multiple lines of resistance this week. Three major moving averages were surpassed in the last three days of trading: the 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, and the 200-day EMA. The ETF also traded above declining resistance that starts from the high at the beginning of the year. This will give the bulls some confidence going forward, and those previous resistance markers may become support if tested. The C-fund gained 6.19% yet lagged the S and I-funds for the week.
The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) broke above its 20 and 50-day EMAs this week and broke through declining resistance of the last three months' peaks. However, the rally did end at the highs of the trading surrounding the beginning of March. This may not be too significant but could give investors a reason to take profits from the latest rally. An open gap was also left behind Wednesday. The S-fund gained 7.09% for the week.
EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) jumped up Wednesday forming an open gap but ended the day above its 20-day EMA. Instead of filling the open gap, momentum pushed the ETF up to its 50-day EMA where it ended at its high for the week. The I-fund led the TSP funds this week with a 7.25%. The I-fund still remains down 0.08% for March.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) gapped down to start the week and slowly rose to mostly fill that open gap. It was ten cents off from the previous Friday's low. Previous lows earlier in March lined up to act as a line of resistance that may keep this ETF in a trading channel. The F-fund lagged the TSP funds this week with a loss of 0.37%.
Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.
Thomas A Crowley
wwww.tsptalk.com
Last Look Report
Facebook | Twitter
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
