Volatility picked up for U.S. Stocks last week, and we saw some big reversal days in both directions, but by the close on Friday the indices were about where they started. Investor's sentiment turned a little more bearish but they were still buying the dips by the end of the week.
Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending June 27:
Bonds led and the I-fund lagged, but the dollar has been in a new downtrend and that should help the I-fund try to play catch up next week.
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) has been chopping around the last week or so and this could either be a consolidation before another push higher, or the indecision and back and forth from investors in the current area could be a sign of topping action. The current rising trading channel gives the benefit of the doubt to the bulls, but if that support breaks, we could see a quick change in character for the market.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Here is the historical performance chart surrounding Independence Day, which is this coming Friday. Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday look good this coming week, with Tuesday being less bullish. Of course seasonality is rarely a primary indicator, but it does have its affect. Folks are on vacation and volume is usually lighter, and the bias tends to be bullish, although there is also a tendency for reversals around the holidays so the action is tough to trust.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Bonds have been rebounding since the IEF found support at the 50-day EMA. This looks bullish for bonds but there's enough resistance out there to put some doubt in any further upside for bonds. We should get that answered this week.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Good luck and thanks for reading! We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at TSP Talk Market Commentary. If you need some help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our premium services can help.
Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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