Last week was a tale of two halves, as the end of 2013 saw typical holiday bullish action, while 2014 started with a thud. Whether it was profit taking and delaying the taxman by a year, or something more, remains to be seen. But as we talked about in our daily commentary this past week, the first few days in January can be an excellent barometer for the entire year, particularly when it is negative.
Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns through Friday, January 3...
And if you missed it, here were the final numbers for December and the extraordinary annual returns for 2013.
The S&P 500 (SPY / C-fund) was consistently positive all of 2013 with no corrections (10% or more). But it starts 2014 with some weakness after hitting the top of a rising trading channel. If you are bullish, this cannot be very be overly exciting for you. If 2014 is going to be a good year, perhaps a little backing and filling, and creating stronger support levels first, would be healthy.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The small caps have also backed off from some overhead resistance although there is some possible support just above 114 on this chart. The pessimist in me would be more inclined to think that the bottom of the rising trading channel (red) might need to get tested before we see any more significant upside.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The bond (F-fund) charts have been very bearish, although they showed some life toward the end of the week. Sell-offs in stocks will have that affect as investors look for a little more safety.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I don't know how safe bonds will be in 2014. The charts look awful and many believe interest rates will move higher this year, which is bearish for bonds. But bond sentiment is so bearish that contrarians would say that it may be time for rebound in bonds, even if temporary.
Good luck,and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at TSP Talk Market Commentary.
Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
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Thelegal stuff: This information is foreducational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. Wedo not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy,sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. Wemay trade these funds differently than discussed above. We useadditional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
