TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

Despite a nice rally on Thursday, stocks had a bit of a rough week last week, although so far it looks to be a fairly healthy pullback. There is strong support below on the indices, but October is shaping up to be a potentially volatile month with so much going on.

Here are the TSP fund returns for the week of September 24 through September 28, plus the final numbers for September, and the up to date annual returns.

There is reason to believe that the recent pullback may be over, just based on the new trendlines connecting recent lows. The 20-day EMA is also there to lend some support.

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

A longer-term view shows that the highs made in early April and August connect to give the S&P 500 another possible level of support. Then, if we connect the lows since the bottom in June, that trend line intersects the other near 1425 - 1430. That intersection would come into play in another 5 or so trading days and by then the rising 50-day EMA, currently at 1416, could be up near 1425 giving even stronger support.

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Nasdaq has pulled back as well and reversed back up just before hitting the 50-day EMA. This chart looks like it needs a strong positive day, otherwise a continued slow move higher would create a bearish looking bear flag.

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

With the jobs report coming up this Friday, and 3rd quarter earnings season kicking off this month, we may get many of our questions answered about the pullback, support, and this current bull market rally.

The election is now a little more than a month away and the results could have a big impact on the market. With the polls still very close, this month's debates could also be market movers, particularly if they move the polls. The first debate is on Wednesday. I have a feeling the market is going to be quite volatile this month.

This could be our last Weekly Wrap-Up, I'm not sure yet. I used to trade articles with another website and I was giving them a copy of this Wrap-Up, but we've decided to take a break from that arrangement for a while. The Wrap-Ups started to make Monday's commentary redundant, not to mention keeping me from doing a few other things with the family on Saturday mornings. We'll see. Perhaps it will just be less consistent - only posting after more interesting weeks in the market.

Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up.

Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff:
This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

 

[Cactus]

I understand the Family Time on Saturday mornings. This stuff can easily take way too much of our time. I'd just like to thank you for the Weekly Wrap-Ups you have provided and all you've done with this site. Thank You.

 

[tsptalk]

Thanks. As some know, my wife and I run an art and antiques gallery and Fridays and Saturdays are the busiest days. Having to do the weekly wrap ups has been somewhat of an inconvenience, but TSP Talk should come first (my wife makes the gallery her priority.)

Like I said, Monday's commentary was getting a little too redundant to what I said in the Wrap Ups so I don't think anyone will miss it. Perhaps I will just post the share prices and skip the analysis. We'll see.

 

[OnTarget]

I wanted to echo the comment from Cactus and to say thank you for all the time and effort you put into the Weekly Wrap-ups. Many, many of us benefit from your perspective of the market. Thanks for sharing.