This week, stock prices were kicked around, including a >2% market sell-off on Wednesday. The S-fund outperformed the other TSP funds for the third consecutive week, and it was the second straight week where the S-fund provided the only positive return among the TSP stock funds (C, S, I).
Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending July 12:
Underwhelming earnings reports from Alphabet and Tesla kick-started a tech sell-off on Wednesday that bled into the broader market. The S-fund lost 2.50% on the day, lagging behind the C-fund’s 2.31% loss. This would be the only day of the week the S-fund lagged the C-fund or recorded a loss. The C-fund followed up Wednesday’s loss by slipping another 0.51% on Thursday but showed life again on Friday with a gain of over 1%. The C-fund lagged all the other TSP funds for the week with an accumulative loss of 0.82%.
Key Highlights:
Economic Indicators: On Friday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauge rose 2.5% in June compared to a year earlier. This is slower than May’s 2.6% PCE and is in line with the Federal Reserve’s inflation expectations.
Earnings Reports:
- Tesla’s earnings report came Tuesday after the bell and showed a slip in profits for a second straight quarter.
- Alphabet’s (Google) earnings also came Tuesday after the bell and showed a slowdown in growth for the company’s advertising sales, its primary revenue source.
Political Event: On Sunday, President Joe Biden announced he was dropping out of the upcoming Presidential Election and endorsed Kamala Harris to take his place as the Democratic nominee.
Chart of the Week
Posted in Friday’s Market Commentary, Tom highlighted a chart showing the return rate ratio between the S-fund and the C-fund. This abrupt change in returns over the last three weeks has shaken up our TSP Talk AutoTracker, lifting a handful of members above the 2024 C-fund herd who have crowded the top of the standings for most of the year.
There are now 10 members outperforming the C-fund for the year. Former top member Timberwoof is currently at the number nine spot in the standings and is the only top ten member not holding any S-fund allocations.
Top 2024 Performers:
- Johnny (18.14%)
- Badkharma (17.69%)
- Bullet (17.66%)
- TSP Talk Plus System (-.--%)
- gitkrunk (17.36%)
- Danno (16.70%)
- pjjc55 (16.65%)
- bkc2a (15.85%)
- Timberwoof (15.68%)
- joe6 (15.66%)
- C-fund (15.33%)
The TSP Talk Premium Service TSP Talk Plus is currently sitting at 4[SUP]th[/SUP] overall in the TSP Talk AutoTracker Standings.
Bkc2a (8) was sitting in the C-fund all year but distinguished themselves from the C-fund herd this week by moving to the S-fund on Thursday. This was a move we caught on The Last Look Report and one that pushed them to the above the C-fund for the year.
The Best IFT of the Week
After an impressive exit the previous week, Nospin reentered the S-fund on Wednesday to give them the best return among all TSP Talk AutoTracker members last week. The move gave them a 2.73% gain for the week, beating the S-fund’s 1.97% weekly return. This impressive market timing by Nospin has given them a July return of 6.97% putting them in second place for the July AutoTracker Contest only behind Fit2bol with three days left in the month.
TSP Talk Average Allocation Change
Nospin wasn’t alone in moving to the S-fund this week. The entire non-premium TSP Talk AutoTracker shifted into the S-fund over the week and reduced their exposure to the other four TSP funds. The average allocation of the S-fund is still less than that of each of the G and C-funds’ average allocations among the 700+ members, but it has climbed higher over the last two weeks while that of the G and C-fund have dwindled.
The top half of the 2024 standings are much more stock heavy with an average C-fund exposure of more than 50% and an average G-fund allocation of less than 10%.
Next Week
The market, and especially the C-fund, will face more earnings reports from more of the Magnificent Seven. Microsoft, META, Apple, and Amazon all release earnings next week. Also, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet and release a policy statement on Wednesday. Although they are not expected to cut rates, their language will likely set the market up for a September rate cut. To end the week, the July jobs report is published Friday to supplement or counter the FOMC’s policy statement on Wednesday.
Final Thoughts
Thank you for being a part of the TSP Talk community. Your engagement and feedback are the lifeline to our great community. Subscribe to my daily email The Last Look Report to see how TSP Talk members spend their last IFTs of July and their first IFTs of August this week.
You can support TSP Talk for free by signing up for the TSP Talk AutoTracker, where you can track your TSP performance and compare with peers.
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Thomas Crowley
(TommyIV)
www.tsptalk.com
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
