Weekly TSP Wrap-up from TSP Talk
Happy New Year!
Thursday saw the end of a week, a month, a quarter, a year, and a decade for the stock market. How did it go for you? Are you ready to start the next chapter on the right foot?
The last decade was not a favorable one for stocks. Did you know that the S&P 500 closed out the 1990's at 1469? It is now 1115.
A 24% loss over a ten year period is not what most of us had in mind for our retirement accounts. Of course we were able to dollar cost average into the TSP by making new deposits each pay period, so your account did not actually do that bad, but any money that you had in the C-fund, for example, in 1999 and stayed there the entire decade of the 2000's, was reduced by about 24%.
That's one reason that I am not a big fan of "buy and hold" because there were several large rallies during that time, and a couple of nasty bear markets that could have been "played". You could have moved your money around to at least try to do better. Timing the market is not easy and might not always work, but I like to have some control rather than being at the mercy of the market.
Last week the I-fund was the only stock fund to close in positive territory (+0.41%) as the pullback in the U.S. dollar helped, and because the very late sell-off in U.S. stocks on Thursday did not give the I-fund enough time to react. That negative fair value should roll into Monday for the I-fund.
The S-fund dropped 1.41% and the C-fund slipped 0.96% for the week, while the F-fund (bonds) lost 0.02%, and the G-fund picked up 0.06%.
For the month of December, the F-fund lost 1.55%, but all of the stock funds were higher. The S-fund led the way being up 6.57% while the C and I funds were up 1.94% and 1.43% respectively.
You can see below that the S&P 500 continues to struggle to get above the rising wedge formation, and because the apex of the wedge is shrinking quickly, is nearly at the bottom of the wedge already.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The technical picture is still OK, and it was a positive that Thursday's late sell-off closed at 1115. The old closing high before the breakout (blue parallel channel) was 1114. Old resistance could act as support, or at least it did on Thursday, but that will be tested on Monday. The S&P is now at a pretty critical point. The short-term could get bumpy this week if we don't see a quick rebound.
Happy New Year! Let's hope 2010 can bring us gains like we saw in 2009. It may be a little too much to ask, so lets hope for the best, but be prepared for the worst.
Raising my glass.. May you be in the market while it's going up, and out while it's going down.
Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up.
Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
--------------------------------------
TSP Talk does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report, nor does TSPtalk.com assume any liability for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice and are for general information only.
The information contained on this website is for educational purposes only and not intended to be recommendations, and may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed without prior written consent from TSPtalk.com. Full Disclaimer
Happy New Year!
Thursday saw the end of a week, a month, a quarter, a year, and a decade for the stock market. How did it go for you? Are you ready to start the next chapter on the right foot?
The last decade was not a favorable one for stocks. Did you know that the S&P 500 closed out the 1990's at 1469? It is now 1115.
A 24% loss over a ten year period is not what most of us had in mind for our retirement accounts. Of course we were able to dollar cost average into the TSP by making new deposits each pay period, so your account did not actually do that bad, but any money that you had in the C-fund, for example, in 1999 and stayed there the entire decade of the 2000's, was reduced by about 24%.
That's one reason that I am not a big fan of "buy and hold" because there were several large rallies during that time, and a couple of nasty bear markets that could have been "played". You could have moved your money around to at least try to do better. Timing the market is not easy and might not always work, but I like to have some control rather than being at the mercy of the market.
Last week the I-fund was the only stock fund to close in positive territory (+0.41%) as the pullback in the U.S. dollar helped, and because the very late sell-off in U.S. stocks on Thursday did not give the I-fund enough time to react. That negative fair value should roll into Monday for the I-fund.
The S-fund dropped 1.41% and the C-fund slipped 0.96% for the week, while the F-fund (bonds) lost 0.02%, and the G-fund picked up 0.06%.
For the month of December, the F-fund lost 1.55%, but all of the stock funds were higher. The S-fund led the way being up 6.57% while the C and I funds were up 1.94% and 1.43% respectively.
You can see below that the S&P 500 continues to struggle to get above the rising wedge formation, and because the apex of the wedge is shrinking quickly, is nearly at the bottom of the wedge already.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The technical picture is still OK, and it was a positive that Thursday's late sell-off closed at 1115. The old closing high before the breakout (blue parallel channel) was 1114. Old resistance could act as support, or at least it did on Thursday, but that will be tested on Monday. The S&P is now at a pretty critical point. The short-term could get bumpy this week if we don't see a quick rebound.
Happy New Year! Let's hope 2010 can bring us gains like we saw in 2009. It may be a little too much to ask, so lets hope for the best, but be prepared for the worst.
Raising my glass.. May you be in the market while it's going up, and out while it's going down.
Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up.
Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
--------------------------------------
TSP Talk does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report, nor does TSPtalk.com assume any liability for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice and are for general information only.
The information contained on this website is for educational purposes only and not intended to be recommendations, and may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed without prior written consent from TSPtalk.com. Full Disclaimer
