Typical correction behavior
Stocks bounced around quite a bit last week sending TSP account balances for quite a ride if you were in the stock funds. It was the first positive week for the major indices after four consecutive losing weeks.
The TSP stock funds saw very respectable gains on the week as the C-fund gained 4.77%, the S-fund made 5.76%,and the I-fund added 2.89%. Bonds (F-fund) lost 0.57%, and the G-fund was up 0.04%.
We still have big losses for the month of August. The C-fund is down 8.75%, the S-fund has lost 12.41%, the I-fund has given up 12.21%, the F-fund still has a gain of 1.39%, and the G-fund is up 0.16%.
The S&P 500 had a good day on Friday, and a good week last week, but There isn'tt a lot of good coming out of the charts. This is going to be a very light volume week as Wall Street vacations peak around this time of year. That means anything can happen and the markets can get pushed around rather easily. Expect volatility to remain high.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
That red pennant above is a continuation formation and unfortunately, since the market was heading down before the pennant formed, that may be the direction in which it breaks.
I still think we could be seeing a bottoming formation in the indices, but that may mean another test, and possible quick break of the prior lows near 1100. This past week in our daily market commentary I have been showing prior market corrections and bear market bottoms. This chart from late 2007 / early 2008 shows the breakdown from a large head and shoulders pattern, and the volatile for months that followed. We seem to be in an environment like the red box below.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com,analysis by TSP Talk
I show more examples in Friday’s commentary.
Who knows what will actually happen, but if I had to pick a scenario of how this plays out, I would say look for more volatile with the S&P 500 trading in the 1100 to 1200 range in the coming weeks to months, with a possible break of 1100 on the down side (currently 1177). The question will be whether this break is a capitulation-type bottom, or the start of another leg down for the indies. We’ll have to cross that bridge when we get there.
Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up.
Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks bounced around quite a bit last week sending TSP account balances for quite a ride if you were in the stock funds. It was the first positive week for the major indices after four consecutive losing weeks.
The TSP stock funds saw very respectable gains on the week as the C-fund gained 4.77%, the S-fund made 5.76%,and the I-fund added 2.89%. Bonds (F-fund) lost 0.57%, and the G-fund was up 0.04%.
We still have big losses for the month of August. The C-fund is down 8.75%, the S-fund has lost 12.41%, the I-fund has given up 12.21%, the F-fund still has a gain of 1.39%, and the G-fund is up 0.16%.
The S&P 500 had a good day on Friday, and a good week last week, but There isn'tt a lot of good coming out of the charts. This is going to be a very light volume week as Wall Street vacations peak around this time of year. That means anything can happen and the markets can get pushed around rather easily. Expect volatility to remain high.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
That red pennant above is a continuation formation and unfortunately, since the market was heading down before the pennant formed, that may be the direction in which it breaks.
I still think we could be seeing a bottoming formation in the indices, but that may mean another test, and possible quick break of the prior lows near 1100. This past week in our daily market commentary I have been showing prior market corrections and bear market bottoms. This chart from late 2007 / early 2008 shows the breakdown from a large head and shoulders pattern, and the volatile for months that followed. We seem to be in an environment like the red box below.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com,analysis by TSP Talk
I show more examples in Friday’s commentary.
Who knows what will actually happen, but if I had to pick a scenario of how this plays out, I would say look for more volatile with the S&P 500 trading in the 1100 to 1200 range in the coming weeks to months, with a possible break of 1100 on the down side (currently 1177). The question will be whether this break is a capitulation-type bottom, or the start of another leg down for the indies. We’ll have to cross that bridge when we get there.
Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up.
Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
