Trying to bottom
It was a wild week on Wall Street last week, with the major indices posting modest gains after some wide daily swings. Oil, the Middle East, and the February jobs report provided much of the excitement and confusion for many investors.
For the TSP, the C-fund gained 0.12% on the week, the S-fund was up 0.30%, and the I-fund led the way with a gain of 0.91% as the dollar continued its slide. Bonds (F-fund) slipped 0.05 on the week, and the G-fund was up 0.06%.
It is quite noticeable how volatile the action has become recently compared to the slow and steady rise we had experienced since early December. A volatile market can be a dangerous market, but the S&P 500 remains above all of the major moving averages that we follow (20, 50, and 200) and the parallel trading channel seems to have just widened – which is not necessarily a bad thing.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
It is the unrest in the Middle East and its impact on the price of oil that has been the catalyst for the recent action. The price of a barrel of oil reached $105 this week, and while $100+ may not be a deal breaker, the market seems to be able to handle that, it is the prospects of the price hitting $125, $150, or higher that has investors concerned.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
All eyes are on Saudi Arabia and March 11 when protestors have scheduled a “day of rage”. A disruption in oil supply from Libya is small potatoes in comparison to the impact unrest Saudi Arabia could cause.
We are seeing investors getting nervous over this possible event but I suspect this concern is already priced into the stock market. The market looks forward and the fact that the indices are holding up in the face of this continued unrest, is a testament to how strong the market is.
The strong jobs report was not enough to keep the rally going on Friday as the Dow lost 88-points, but I believe we saw a “sell the news” reaction to Thursday’s “buy the rumor” 190-point advance in the Dow.
I like the prospects for the market this week, but of course it doesn't what I think. What matters is that the S&P 500 needs to stay above the support line of the ascending trading channel, the 50-day EMA, and we will want to see the low near 1294 hold on any pullbacks.
Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up.
Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
It was a wild week on Wall Street last week, with the major indices posting modest gains after some wide daily swings. Oil, the Middle East, and the February jobs report provided much of the excitement and confusion for many investors.
For the TSP, the C-fund gained 0.12% on the week, the S-fund was up 0.30%, and the I-fund led the way with a gain of 0.91% as the dollar continued its slide. Bonds (F-fund) slipped 0.05 on the week, and the G-fund was up 0.06%.
It is quite noticeable how volatile the action has become recently compared to the slow and steady rise we had experienced since early December. A volatile market can be a dangerous market, but the S&P 500 remains above all of the major moving averages that we follow (20, 50, and 200) and the parallel trading channel seems to have just widened – which is not necessarily a bad thing.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
It is the unrest in the Middle East and its impact on the price of oil that has been the catalyst for the recent action. The price of a barrel of oil reached $105 this week, and while $100+ may not be a deal breaker, the market seems to be able to handle that, it is the prospects of the price hitting $125, $150, or higher that has investors concerned.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
All eyes are on Saudi Arabia and March 11 when protestors have scheduled a “day of rage”. A disruption in oil supply from Libya is small potatoes in comparison to the impact unrest Saudi Arabia could cause.
We are seeing investors getting nervous over this possible event but I suspect this concern is already priced into the stock market. The market looks forward and the fact that the indices are holding up in the face of this continued unrest, is a testament to how strong the market is.
The strong jobs report was not enough to keep the rally going on Friday as the Dow lost 88-points, but I believe we saw a “sell the news” reaction to Thursday’s “buy the rumor” 190-point advance in the Dow.
I like the prospects for the market this week, but of course it doesn't what I think. What matters is that the S&P 500 needs to stay above the support line of the ascending trading channel, the 50-day EMA, and we will want to see the low near 1294 hold on any pullbacks.
Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up.
Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
