The recipe is still, buy the dips
It was another positive week for the U.S. stocks funds despite the recent unrest in Egypt, but the market embraced the positive direction this geopolitical event has taken. International stocks did fine also, but the rebound in the dollar kept the I-fund down.
For the TSP, the C-fund gained 1.46% on the week, the S-fund was up 2.51%, and the I-fund picked up 0.10% as the dollar bounced back some. Bonds (F-fund) were basically flat gaining 0.01%, and the G-fund added 0.05%.
February is doing a fine job following up on January’s gains. For the month, the C-fund is up 3.45%, the S-fund has gained 4.71%, and the I-fund is holding onto a 1.74% gain. Bonds (F-fund) are down 1.0%, and the G-fund is up 0.09%.
For the last 11-weeks, since this recent rally started in early December, buying the dips on every 2 or 3 day pullback has worked well. It seems logical to say stick with this game plan until the market tells us otherwise, but many of us are seeing signs of the indices being very much extended. Having the S&P 500 trading 146-points above its 200-day EMA is an eye opener.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
If you have been following our TSP Talk Sentiment Survey you know that market sentiment is actually leaning more toward being overly bearish than overly bullish. Since sentiment is a contrarian indicator, this is a positive sign for stocks and proves again that sentiment is a powerful indicator. Despite the relentless strength in the market, most folks seem to be expecting a pullback and that could be the very reason we are not seeing one.
The I-fund lagged last week and that was mostly because the U.S. dollar finally saw a relief rally.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
The question is, will the old support level near 78.75 act as resistance on the way up? It did on Friday so it will be interesting to see if the dollar resumes the longer-term downtrend next week. If so, look for the I-fund to perform a little better.
Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up.
Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
It was another positive week for the U.S. stocks funds despite the recent unrest in Egypt, but the market embraced the positive direction this geopolitical event has taken. International stocks did fine also, but the rebound in the dollar kept the I-fund down.
For the TSP, the C-fund gained 1.46% on the week, the S-fund was up 2.51%, and the I-fund picked up 0.10% as the dollar bounced back some. Bonds (F-fund) were basically flat gaining 0.01%, and the G-fund added 0.05%.
February is doing a fine job following up on January’s gains. For the month, the C-fund is up 3.45%, the S-fund has gained 4.71%, and the I-fund is holding onto a 1.74% gain. Bonds (F-fund) are down 1.0%, and the G-fund is up 0.09%.
For the last 11-weeks, since this recent rally started in early December, buying the dips on every 2 or 3 day pullback has worked well. It seems logical to say stick with this game plan until the market tells us otherwise, but many of us are seeing signs of the indices being very much extended. Having the S&P 500 trading 146-points above its 200-day EMA is an eye opener.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
If you have been following our TSP Talk Sentiment Survey you know that market sentiment is actually leaning more toward being overly bearish than overly bullish. Since sentiment is a contrarian indicator, this is a positive sign for stocks and proves again that sentiment is a powerful indicator. Despite the relentless strength in the market, most folks seem to be expecting a pullback and that could be the very reason we are not seeing one.
The I-fund lagged last week and that was mostly because the U.S. dollar finally saw a relief rally.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
The question is, will the old support level near 78.75 act as resistance on the way up? It did on Friday so it will be interesting to see if the dollar resumes the longer-term downtrend next week. If so, look for the I-fund to perform a little better.
Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up.
Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
