Well, that relief rally didn't last long, and in typical bear market fashion, the market gives the bulls some hope and then pulls the rug out from under them. Some bear market rallies last weeks, some days, and some just hours, you never know. Yesterday gave back nearly 500 Dow points, and the S&P 500 actually made a new intraday low for 2022 but the late buying took the indices off those lows once again.
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Admin note: Just a reminder that I am on vacation this week. I will check in every day but the commentaries will be brief because of some personal plans. If something major happens I'll try to address that the best I can. My schedule will be completely off being in a different time zone so I'll apologize in advance, and appreciate your patience if I respond late to emails, or post reports and update the AutoTracker later than usual. Premium alerts will go out as needed.
September is keeping its reputation intact as the worst month for stocks during the year, following August which was no picnic either. Those months followed July which saw 9% and 10% gains in the C and S funds respectively, so we know even bear markets will giveth once in while. When, is the question.
Next week we will leave September behind, but October can be a mixed bag. We've seen some very poor ones in the past, particularly in bear markets, but often October can mark the lows before a November / December rally.
The charts don't look great but they are mostly holding at the lows right now and there is a chance of a right shoulder forming on the S&P 500 chart that could give more sustained relief, but it doesn't have to. So risk remain high, rewards can be fruitful, but any buying attempts probably need to be hit and run style until the internals start to improve.
With the Fed still raising rates however, it may not be that easy this year. Other than that, I honestly haven't seen a lot of headlines while on vacation but I do watch the indices and the charts to get a feel for what is going on.
I'll be back in the office next week, and on my regular schedule. Thanks again for putting up with my limited analysis this week!
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Thanks so much for reading. Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
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