It was as if we were back in June yesterday with large cap tech leading the way, and small caps lagging. The back and forth whipsawing continued as S&P made another attempt at a new high, but remains below the breakout level, and the rest of the market couldn't keep up with tech. The charts look good but they haven't made the move yet. The I-fund lagged as Hong Kong's stock market crashed 9.4% on Tuesday.
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Again, I want to apologize for the downtime in the forum recently. I may have to go in a different direction if support doesn't pick up the pace. Unfortunately that means we will probably have to go through this again.
I thought yesterday could help give us some direction after the back and forth that we have been seeing while the S&P 500 continues to flirt with new highs. The action was a head scratcher as all of a sudden large cap tech stocks came back to life while the broader indices were rather flat. The Nasdaq, which led with a gain of 1.45%, actually saw more stocks down than up on the day, and there were 133 new 52-week lows made in that index vs. just 99 new highs. What's going on?
The QQQ is the ETF tracking the top 100 Nasdaq stocks, and you can see it had a day. It had been lagging in recent months with the Mag 7 stocks slowing down, but the chart may be on the brink of a breakout as the formation looks very strong. But does it need another dose October volatility before investors can get comfortable?
Smalls caps are lagging again, but that blue bull flag does look appealing, assuming it can breakout eventually as bull flags tend to do.
But there's so much going on right now with multiple wars going on, political strife in the US as we head to the final stretch of the election, yields are flying higher suggesting the Fed may not be as dovish on cutting interest rates, and the economy possibly slowing, but we're seeing conflicting information on that as the Atlanta Fed just raised their 3rd quarter GDP estimate to +3.2%. Did a mention another major hurricane about to make landfall? The market seem to enjoy climbing this wall of worry.<br>
As I mentioned above, Hong' Kong's Hang Seng Index crashed 9.4% yesterday, but apparently that didn't matter to the US stock market which obviously looked the other way.
The 10-year Treasury Yield slowed its roll but still moved slightly higher yesterday and remains above 4%.
The Dow Transportation Index posted a solid gain yesterday but the fact that it is holding again at the major moving averages tells us there are buyers still willing to buy this dipping market leader at support. Bull markets need the Transports to participate.
Based on the charts, I am feeling quite bullish and that worries me. Again, I am not yet positioned as if I am very bullish because I am respecting the negative October seasonality and the alarming headlines, but it's tough not to like the strength we are seeing in the face of all the headwinds. And if I'm excited, I know it probably means sentiment may be getting overly bullish.
On Thursday we will get the CPI report, and Friday the PPI report, both of which is expected to reiterate what we've been seeing for months - that inflation is under control.
Holiday Monday! The TSP will be closed on Monday October 14, for Columbus Day. They will not be processing transactions so we will also take the day off here at TSP Talk.
Admin Note: In the coming weeks we may be working on a server and software upgrade, starting with the forum, that could disrupt the website periodically. I've procrastinated long enough and it's time to get it done. The maintenance could take part or all of the website down at times, but it will not impact Premium Service email and text alerts. I'll keep you posted.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) gained back Monday's losses as the back and forth continued. It has been coiling up in tight range since September 19th, but it has thus far not made any real attempt at filling the open gap near 5620 between the close on the 18th and the lows since. The PMO indicator on the bottom is still sliding lower but just holding above its moving average in red.
DWCPF (S-fund) is also trading in a tight range and it's actually a pretty good looking bull flag. Again, this looks bullish but no moves from the bulls yet to make new highs.
The I-fund: The EFA was down 0.16% and ACWX was down 0.95%%, and the "ex USA ex China ex Hong Kong Index" was down 0.59%. I write these commentary before the TSP posts the prices, but my guess is the I-fund return will be somewhere near the -0.55% area, but you can see the TSP's eventual final daily price and return posted on our site each evening.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) was up yesterday after a sharp pull back over the last week. The 50-day EMA has been broken and the 75-day EMA is the next line of support. There's a large open gap up by 74.60, and that could be a rebound target.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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Again, I want to apologize for the downtime in the forum recently. I may have to go in a different direction if support doesn't pick up the pace. Unfortunately that means we will probably have to go through this again.
I thought yesterday could help give us some direction after the back and forth that we have been seeing while the S&P 500 continues to flirt with new highs. The action was a head scratcher as all of a sudden large cap tech stocks came back to life while the broader indices were rather flat. The Nasdaq, which led with a gain of 1.45%, actually saw more stocks down than up on the day, and there were 133 new 52-week lows made in that index vs. just 99 new highs. What's going on?
The QQQ is the ETF tracking the top 100 Nasdaq stocks, and you can see it had a day. It had been lagging in recent months with the Mag 7 stocks slowing down, but the chart may be on the brink of a breakout as the formation looks very strong. But does it need another dose October volatility before investors can get comfortable?
Smalls caps are lagging again, but that blue bull flag does look appealing, assuming it can breakout eventually as bull flags tend to do.
But there's so much going on right now with multiple wars going on, political strife in the US as we head to the final stretch of the election, yields are flying higher suggesting the Fed may not be as dovish on cutting interest rates, and the economy possibly slowing, but we're seeing conflicting information on that as the Atlanta Fed just raised their 3rd quarter GDP estimate to +3.2%. Did a mention another major hurricane about to make landfall? The market seem to enjoy climbing this wall of worry.<br>
As I mentioned above, Hong' Kong's Hang Seng Index crashed 9.4% yesterday, but apparently that didn't matter to the US stock market which obviously looked the other way.
The 10-year Treasury Yield slowed its roll but still moved slightly higher yesterday and remains above 4%.
The Dow Transportation Index posted a solid gain yesterday but the fact that it is holding again at the major moving averages tells us there are buyers still willing to buy this dipping market leader at support. Bull markets need the Transports to participate.
Based on the charts, I am feeling quite bullish and that worries me. Again, I am not yet positioned as if I am very bullish because I am respecting the negative October seasonality and the alarming headlines, but it's tough not to like the strength we are seeing in the face of all the headwinds. And if I'm excited, I know it probably means sentiment may be getting overly bullish.
On Thursday we will get the CPI report, and Friday the PPI report, both of which is expected to reiterate what we've been seeing for months - that inflation is under control.
Holiday Monday! The TSP will be closed on Monday October 14, for Columbus Day. They will not be processing transactions so we will also take the day off here at TSP Talk.
Admin Note: In the coming weeks we may be working on a server and software upgrade, starting with the forum, that could disrupt the website periodically. I've procrastinated long enough and it's time to get it done. The maintenance could take part or all of the website down at times, but it will not impact Premium Service email and text alerts. I'll keep you posted.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) gained back Monday's losses as the back and forth continued. It has been coiling up in tight range since September 19th, but it has thus far not made any real attempt at filling the open gap near 5620 between the close on the 18th and the lows since. The PMO indicator on the bottom is still sliding lower but just holding above its moving average in red.
DWCPF (S-fund) is also trading in a tight range and it's actually a pretty good looking bull flag. Again, this looks bullish but no moves from the bulls yet to make new highs.
The I-fund: The EFA was down 0.16% and ACWX was down 0.95%%, and the "ex USA ex China ex Hong Kong Index" was down 0.59%. I write these commentary before the TSP posts the prices, but my guess is the I-fund return will be somewhere near the -0.55% area, but you can see the TSP's eventual final daily price and return posted on our site each evening.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) was up yesterday after a sharp pull back over the last week. The 50-day EMA has been broken and the 75-day EMA is the next line of support. There's a large open gap up by 74.60, and that could be a rebound target.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
