Stocks were mixed yesterday, although mostly higher as the S&P, Nasdaq and small caps rallied, while the Dow posted a triple digit loss extended its losing streak to 8 days, and it has only been up once in December so far. The Transportation Index also continues its nasty tailspin, so once again it is big tech to the rescue. Bonds were up as yields finally paused.
The Dow's losing streak of 8 days is the longest losing streak for the index in 6 years? Really? More than during the Covid crash or the 2022 bear market? Meanwhile the Nasdaq made a new all time closing high and the S&P 500 is within a stone's throw. What's happening?
Unitedhealth Group lost 4.36% yesterday. It had been the largest weighted stock in the Dow until its recent plummet from 620 to below 500 this month alone. That is weighing on the Dow. It is still #2 with Goldman Sachs moving to #1. Home Depot is #4 on the list and it was down 1.46%.
The good news:
The broader market held onto gains despite some selling into the closing bell yesterday as we head into this week's FOMC meeting, which will likely include another 0.25% interest rate cut, but it could be the final rate cut from the Fed for a while. The bears are building up reasons to be bearish but the bulls have the calendar on their side for a couple of more weeks. Gains this time of year are not a guarantee, but that is the way the current tends to flow.
One of the red flags recently has been the weakness in the market leading Dow Transportation Index which continued its sell off posting its 9th loss in 10 trading days yesterday. It did fill in that post-election day open gap so, for the bulls' sake, hopefully that isn't a prelude to filling the gaps in the S&P 500 and small caps' charts which will directly impact the TSP funds.
The advance / decline line - number of stocks up vs. the number down in a given day, was negative for the 11th straight day yesterday. According to zerohedge's X account, that was the first that had happened since September 11th, 2001.
OK, now I'm listening. I have been saying for many years that the fact that the Dow had been down 10% in the two weeks leading up to the 9/11 terrorist attacks was the market listening to the world. A mastermind, if you will, that sensed pending doom, despite most of us having no clue what was about to happen. The market has a sixth sense.
This may sound irresponsible, and I hope that is all it is. I'm not a news guy, I'm just an opinion guy, and I don't even know if I will react to this, but I feel like I can't keep it to myself. Something is up and we've seen something like this before, and it didn't end well. Does it tie into the drones or are the drones just this generations War of the Worlds hoax making us all paranoid?
Also, watch for a major negative jobs revision headline this week (Wed?) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, similar to the one we saw reported in August. That's rearview mirror information as it already occurred, but let's see what happens when the public hears more about it.
The FOMC meeting starts today and concludes Wednesday with a policy statement and decision on interest rates at 2 PM ET, and then a Jerome Powell press conference shortly afterward.
Admin Note: Sign up for (or sign into) the AutoTracker before the end of the year to make sure you get in before the start of the new year when we starts tracking the 2025 returns.
Also, RevShark wanted to pass this along to all TSP Talk Readers: End-of-year tax planning notes
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was up but the consolidation continues. It could be a bull flag, which would not be unusual, but if my paranoid rant above turns out to have any truth in it, we could see it go the way of that market leading Dow Transportation Index chart in the top section.
DWCPF (S-fund) is back above the 20-day EMA after a solid rally yesterday, and it is hanging above other rising support, but those two open gaps are still looming below. I didn't expect that lower gap to get filled until after the new year, but again my paranoia above has me hedging a little on that now.
ACWX (The I-fund tracking index) was down 0.29% yesterday, the I-fund was given a 0.21% loss. It's falling below more support, and when I see chart falling for no apparent reason, I get a little more concerned that I am missing something.
You can see the updated I-fund and other TSP share prices and returns, usually posted daily by 8:30 PM ET here: https://www.tsptalk.com/tsp_share_prices.php
BND (bonds / F-fund) was up for a change. This may be the light at the end of the tunnel as if there was a major geopolitical event looming out there, we would probably be seeing bonds rallying instead of rolling over. Gold as well. It has been falling and bonds and gold have been the world's safe havens historically when investors sell stocks.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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This is going to be a gloomy report so if you don't like that sort of thing, you may want to stop reading now. And this is coming from someone who has been very bullish on stocks for the last few months.The Dow's losing streak of 8 days is the longest losing streak for the index in 6 years? Really? More than during the Covid crash or the 2022 bear market? Meanwhile the Nasdaq made a new all time closing high and the S&P 500 is within a stone's throw. What's happening?
Unitedhealth Group lost 4.36% yesterday. It had been the largest weighted stock in the Dow until its recent plummet from 620 to below 500 this month alone. That is weighing on the Dow. It is still #2 with Goldman Sachs moving to #1. Home Depot is #4 on the list and it was down 1.46%.
The good news:
The broader market held onto gains despite some selling into the closing bell yesterday as we head into this week's FOMC meeting, which will likely include another 0.25% interest rate cut, but it could be the final rate cut from the Fed for a while. The bears are building up reasons to be bearish but the bulls have the calendar on their side for a couple of more weeks. Gains this time of year are not a guarantee, but that is the way the current tends to flow.
One of the red flags recently has been the weakness in the market leading Dow Transportation Index which continued its sell off posting its 9th loss in 10 trading days yesterday. It did fill in that post-election day open gap so, for the bulls' sake, hopefully that isn't a prelude to filling the gaps in the S&P 500 and small caps' charts which will directly impact the TSP funds.
The advance / decline line - number of stocks up vs. the number down in a given day, was negative for the 11th straight day yesterday. According to zerohedge's X account, that was the first that had happened since September 11th, 2001.
OK, now I'm listening. I have been saying for many years that the fact that the Dow had been down 10% in the two weeks leading up to the 9/11 terrorist attacks was the market listening to the world. A mastermind, if you will, that sensed pending doom, despite most of us having no clue what was about to happen. The market has a sixth sense.
This may sound irresponsible, and I hope that is all it is. I'm not a news guy, I'm just an opinion guy, and I don't even know if I will react to this, but I feel like I can't keep it to myself. Something is up and we've seen something like this before, and it didn't end well. Does it tie into the drones or are the drones just this generations War of the Worlds hoax making us all paranoid?
Also, watch for a major negative jobs revision headline this week (Wed?) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, similar to the one we saw reported in August. That's rearview mirror information as it already occurred, but let's see what happens when the public hears more about it.
The FOMC meeting starts today and concludes Wednesday with a policy statement and decision on interest rates at 2 PM ET, and then a Jerome Powell press conference shortly afterward.
Admin Note: Sign up for (or sign into) the AutoTracker before the end of the year to make sure you get in before the start of the new year when we starts tracking the 2025 returns.
Also, RevShark wanted to pass this along to all TSP Talk Readers: End-of-year tax planning notes
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was up but the consolidation continues. It could be a bull flag, which would not be unusual, but if my paranoid rant above turns out to have any truth in it, we could see it go the way of that market leading Dow Transportation Index chart in the top section.
DWCPF (S-fund) is back above the 20-day EMA after a solid rally yesterday, and it is hanging above other rising support, but those two open gaps are still looming below. I didn't expect that lower gap to get filled until after the new year, but again my paranoia above has me hedging a little on that now.
ACWX (The I-fund tracking index) was down 0.29% yesterday, the I-fund was given a 0.21% loss. It's falling below more support, and when I see chart falling for no apparent reason, I get a little more concerned that I am missing something.
You can see the updated I-fund and other TSP share prices and returns, usually posted daily by 8:30 PM ET here: https://www.tsptalk.com/tsp_share_prices.php
BND (bonds / F-fund) was up for a change. This may be the light at the end of the tunnel as if there was a major geopolitical event looming out there, we would probably be seeing bonds rallying instead of rolling over. Gold as well. It has been falling and bonds and gold have been the world's safe havens historically when investors sell stocks.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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