Stocks were mixed on Friday after a disappointing jobs report which missed by about a half million jobs. But, the unemployment rate fell to 5.2% so that is getting low enough for the Fed to seriously consider tapering their bond buying, and they are running out of excuses for continuing that program. The Dow lost 75-points, the S&P 500 was flat, and the Nasdaq rallied. The small caps of the Russell 2000 were down sharply, but the S-fund, along with their midcaps, held up better. The dollar was down 0.20% and the I-fund was up 0.20% - go figure.
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Internally the numbers were fairly negative on Friday, even on the Nasdaq, which was up on the day.
The yield on the 10-year rallied after the jobs report, closing just above the moving averages, but remaining in that pennant formation. Why yields rallied on weak economic data, I'm not so sure. The market seems to be trying to figure out if the economy is growing, or slowing.
The dollar was down again, falling below one key moving average, and resting on a support line (blue) coming off the recent lows. There is also an open gap down near 24.60 that could attract some attention.
As vacations wind down after the long holiday weekend, this week is generally a slower than normal week volume-wise. That is unless something eventful happens, and nowadays anyone can trade from their mobile devices, so it may not be the same as 20 years ago when Wall Street was pretty quiet this week.
One thing that does happen this week is that two primary programs of the government’s Covid protection package are ending or have recently ended. Starting yesterday, an estimated 8.9 million people will lose all unemployment benefits, and a federal eviction moratorium already has expired. Will this impact the market? Maybe not, since it is not a surprise, but it is something can can slow down consumer spending.
Admin Note: It's time for our annual NFL Survivor Pool. It's free and anyone can join. The games start on Thursday of this week, but the deadline to join is Sunday the 12th before the first game. Go here for more info: [url]https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/site-news-and-announcements/37405-nfl-last-man-standing-2021-a.html
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The S&P 500 (C-fund) was flat again so the old resistance has continued to hold as support since it broke out last Monday. Yes, it is stretched. Yes, the momentum is on the bulls' side. Seasonality may be on the bears' side, but that didn't help them in August. It is flying high above all of the major moving averages, but there is an open gap just below 4450.
The weekly chart going back 10 years shows that eventually long periods of upside movement lead to either long periods of consolidation or sharp corrections. When, is the question.
The DWCPF (S-fund) was down slightly on Friday as it approached the top of one of its longer term trading channels, and in doing so it is getting further away from those open gaps, which we assume will get filled at some point.
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) had a big day on Friday as the dollar fell yet again, helping the I-fund become the best performing fund for the day, and the week. It has now closed above its resistance line for two straight days. A couple more closes above 81.50 and this could be a confirmed breakout, but with so many open gaps below, that seems questionable.
The Dow Transportation Index gave back Thursday's gains on Friday, and it closed back below the 50-day moving average. This has been in what looks like a healthy consolidation after July's low, and breaking the downtrend in August, but it does have to get above, and stay above, those moving averages.
The BND (bonds / F-fund) fell sharply after the weak jobs report, which as I mentioned above, didn't seem like the normal reaction to weak data. It remains in that range between the 50-day EMA and the top of that trading channel.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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Internally the numbers were fairly negative on Friday, even on the Nasdaq, which was up on the day.
The yield on the 10-year rallied after the jobs report, closing just above the moving averages, but remaining in that pennant formation. Why yields rallied on weak economic data, I'm not so sure. The market seems to be trying to figure out if the economy is growing, or slowing.
The dollar was down again, falling below one key moving average, and resting on a support line (blue) coming off the recent lows. There is also an open gap down near 24.60 that could attract some attention.
As vacations wind down after the long holiday weekend, this week is generally a slower than normal week volume-wise. That is unless something eventful happens, and nowadays anyone can trade from their mobile devices, so it may not be the same as 20 years ago when Wall Street was pretty quiet this week.
One thing that does happen this week is that two primary programs of the government’s Covid protection package are ending or have recently ended. Starting yesterday, an estimated 8.9 million people will lose all unemployment benefits, and a federal eviction moratorium already has expired. Will this impact the market? Maybe not, since it is not a surprise, but it is something can can slow down consumer spending.
Admin Note: It's time for our annual NFL Survivor Pool. It's free and anyone can join. The games start on Thursday of this week, but the deadline to join is Sunday the 12th before the first game. Go here for more info: [url]https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/site-news-and-announcements/37405-nfl-last-man-standing-2021-a.html
[/URL]
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was flat again so the old resistance has continued to hold as support since it broke out last Monday. Yes, it is stretched. Yes, the momentum is on the bulls' side. Seasonality may be on the bears' side, but that didn't help them in August. It is flying high above all of the major moving averages, but there is an open gap just below 4450.
The weekly chart going back 10 years shows that eventually long periods of upside movement lead to either long periods of consolidation or sharp corrections. When, is the question.
The DWCPF (S-fund) was down slightly on Friday as it approached the top of one of its longer term trading channels, and in doing so it is getting further away from those open gaps, which we assume will get filled at some point.
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) had a big day on Friday as the dollar fell yet again, helping the I-fund become the best performing fund for the day, and the week. It has now closed above its resistance line for two straight days. A couple more closes above 81.50 and this could be a confirmed breakout, but with so many open gaps below, that seems questionable.
The Dow Transportation Index gave back Thursday's gains on Friday, and it closed back below the 50-day moving average. This has been in what looks like a healthy consolidation after July's low, and breaking the downtrend in August, but it does have to get above, and stay above, those moving averages.
The BND (bonds / F-fund) fell sharply after the weak jobs report, which as I mentioned above, didn't seem like the normal reaction to weak data. It remains in that range between the 50-day EMA and the top of that trading channel.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
