We are really starting to see the bear market percolate as stocks took another tumble on Friday capping off a very difficult week for the stock funds. The Dow lost 486-points but there was some late buying as the indices approached the June lows so perhaps this week we'll see some kind of oversold / double bottom rebound. Bonds were down as short term yield moved higher again.
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Admin note: Just a reminder that I am on vacation this week. I will check in every day but the commentaries will be brief because of some personal plans, and working on my laptop to me is like running in peanut butter compared to my PC. If something major happens I'll try to address that the best I can. My schedule will be completely off being in a different time zone so I'll apologize in advance, and appreciate your patience if I respond late to emails, or post reports and update the AutoTracker later than usual. Premium alerts will go out as needed.
There were several technical developments last week that are starting show the severity of the bear market, but we're also seeing signs of some downside extremes that could contribute to some short-term relief. The difficult part is knowing if a double bottom bounce is temporary, or something more sustainable like we saw in June. If the head and shoulders pattern can hold we could see a right shoulder develop, although there's no law that says it can't just break down now.
Some of the market leaders are failing so that could be a sign that the double bottom won't hold as the Transportation Index did breakdown last week, as did the price of oil which sounds like a good thing, but it may also be a sign of the market starting to price in a recession.
Aggressive investors might take a shot at a short term bounce but I don't have to remind you just how vulnerable the market is in this kind of environment as we wait for the next shoe to drop in the form of earnings estimate adjustments because of the higher interest rates.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks so much for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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Admin note: Just a reminder that I am on vacation this week. I will check in every day but the commentaries will be brief because of some personal plans, and working on my laptop to me is like running in peanut butter compared to my PC. If something major happens I'll try to address that the best I can. My schedule will be completely off being in a different time zone so I'll apologize in advance, and appreciate your patience if I respond late to emails, or post reports and update the AutoTracker later than usual. Premium alerts will go out as needed.
There were several technical developments last week that are starting show the severity of the bear market, but we're also seeing signs of some downside extremes that could contribute to some short-term relief. The difficult part is knowing if a double bottom bounce is temporary, or something more sustainable like we saw in June. If the head and shoulders pattern can hold we could see a right shoulder develop, although there's no law that says it can't just break down now.
Some of the market leaders are failing so that could be a sign that the double bottom won't hold as the Transportation Index did breakdown last week, as did the price of oil which sounds like a good thing, but it may also be a sign of the market starting to price in a recession.
Aggressive investors might take a shot at a short term bounce but I don't have to remind you just how vulnerable the market is in this kind of environment as we wait for the next shoe to drop in the form of earnings estimate adjustments because of the higher interest rates.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks so much for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
