TSP Talk - So far so good for the holiday rally

Stocks opened lower on Wednesday but battled back to close near flat as the bears hibernate during this light news holiday week. Small caps led thanks to a negative reversal day in the 10-year Treasury Yield, which also gave the F-fund a small gain. A pullback in the dollar helped the I-fund to a modest gain.

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A major news story could flip this market on its head because of the light trading volume, but absent that, the market is in the typically quiet, bullish biased trading Santa Claus rally period, which still has five more trading days left.

Once again, I'm taking advantage of the quiet action by keeping the commentary to a minimum while enjoying my visiting family members who have come in from out of town for the holidays.

The 10-Year Treasury Yield pushed higher early yesterday and we saw stocks open on the downside, but that negative reversal day in yields not only helped stocks bounce back yesterday, but the chart pattern may help turn the yield ship around, but this chart still has some support it must break below first.

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The S&P 500 (C-fund) was flat but the bears have not been able to reverse the upside holiday rebound yet. You can see trading volume drying up, which is generally an asset to the bulls, but a news event could provoke large moves when volume is low, so there are still risks.

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DWCPF (S-fund) led yesterday with yields rolling over. Small caps are still well behind the large caps this month and have a lot of ground to make up. The C-fund is already approaching the early December highs, and you can see this S-fund chart has a long way to go to fix this chart.

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I hope some of you have been able to relax this holiday season, although sometimes a quiet day at work can be more relaxing than the hustle and bustle of the holidays. :)




ACWX (the I-fund tracking index) was up 0.18% yesterday, and the I-fund was given a gain of just 0.06%.


BND (bonds / F-fund) was up slightly after the negative reversal in yields. Support is trying to hold near the recent lows. This could be a spot for a relief rally, but if that's the case, stocks could easily do better.

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You can see the updated TSP share prices and returns, usually posted daily by 8:30 PM ET here: https://www.tsptalk.com/tsp_share_prices.php

Thanks so much for reading! Happy Holidays to all! Have a great weekend!

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