Stocks opened lower and closed well again yesterday, and also once again the indices were mixed. The Dow had been lagging but it led the big three indices on the upside yesterday, but it was the small caps that led the TSP funds again. Bonds were down as yields bounced back from Tuesday's decline. The much anticipated earnings report from Nvidia was released last night and the futures were close to flat after that release.
The stock had ramped up on Tuesday and yesterday it was mostly flat, and it was just off the all time highs when it reported, so this had the set up, and an excuse, for a sell the news reaction if it wasn't a perfect report. The fact that it is nearly flat after hours with analysts initially underwhelmed by the report, is saying something, which I interpret as people do not want to sell this company. Again, that could change after the conference call.
We still have the indices trading in a range near support so it will be interesting to see if this news triggers selling below the support in the S&P 500 (C-fund), or can it spur buying above the recent resistance to keep the rally going, because something is going to have to give in this chart? If Nvidia doesn't push it down, it may be tough to keep the bulls from taking charge again as we head into a very strong seasonal period for the stock market.
Here is the average return over the last 73 years during the 9-day trading period between the final six trading days in November, and the first three in December: 56 up, 17 down. I'm guessing the other three were flat.
Data courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
The 10-year Treasury Yield was up yesterday after Tuesday's breakdown. It's not unusual to see a retest of the broken support, but as we talked about yesterday, it doesn't have to mean yields are coming down. It could mean it trades in a range and digests these recent gains for a while.
The dollar bounced back yesterday as well, after its 3-day pullback. That put pressure on the I-fund yet again.
We get the weekly jobless claims today and tomorrow is the Michigan Consumer Sentiment report, but other than that, there's not much going on.
Admin Note: For those of you who like to browse or participate in the TSP Talk Forums, we were able to get the TapaTalk mobile version of the forum working with the new software. I know some of you had become accustomed to that. However, I think the new forum software actually looks great on mobile devises without a special app. That was part of the appeal of the new software. Just go straight to https://forum.tsptalk.com/
Stockcharts.com had not updated the $DWCPF chart yesterday for some reason, but the ETF VXF tracks the S-fund very similarly. DWCPF has been very accurate and it was up 0.41% yesterday while VXF gained 0.44%, so it was close and I will use that chart until stockcharts.com hopefully fixes the DWCPF chart.
ACWX was down 0.22% yesterday, so let's see what return the TSP gives the I-fund. We still don't have a great ETF or index representation for the price of the I-fund, but for now ACWX will have to do. You can see the updated TSP prices and returns posted by about 8:15 PM ET daily here: https://www.tsptalk.com/tsp_share_prices.php
The chart remains in a downtrend but continues to hold at a key support level.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was down again yesterday, so no breakout yet as resistance continues to hold. As I mentioned above regarding the 10-year Yield, it could stop going up but that doesn't mean it will come down. Bonds could stabilize in a range if yields chop around without making new highs. Bonds and the F-fund move counter to the direction of yields.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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Nvidia reported earnings after the bell on Wednesday and they beat estimates as usual, but perhaps not to the degree investors were expecting. The stock was trading flat to down a percent or two in the first hour of after hours of trading last night. That's surprisingly quiet considering the options market was expecting an 8% move one way or the other.The stock had ramped up on Tuesday and yesterday it was mostly flat, and it was just off the all time highs when it reported, so this had the set up, and an excuse, for a sell the news reaction if it wasn't a perfect report. The fact that it is nearly flat after hours with analysts initially underwhelmed by the report, is saying something, which I interpret as people do not want to sell this company. Again, that could change after the conference call.
We still have the indices trading in a range near support so it will be interesting to see if this news triggers selling below the support in the S&P 500 (C-fund), or can it spur buying above the recent resistance to keep the rally going, because something is going to have to give in this chart? If Nvidia doesn't push it down, it may be tough to keep the bulls from taking charge again as we head into a very strong seasonal period for the stock market.
Here is the average return over the last 73 years during the 9-day trading period between the final six trading days in November, and the first three in December: 56 up, 17 down. I'm guessing the other three were flat.
Data courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
The 10-year Treasury Yield was up yesterday after Tuesday's breakdown. It's not unusual to see a retest of the broken support, but as we talked about yesterday, it doesn't have to mean yields are coming down. It could mean it trades in a range and digests these recent gains for a while.
The dollar bounced back yesterday as well, after its 3-day pullback. That put pressure on the I-fund yet again.
We get the weekly jobless claims today and tomorrow is the Michigan Consumer Sentiment report, but other than that, there's not much going on.
Admin Note: For those of you who like to browse or participate in the TSP Talk Forums, we were able to get the TapaTalk mobile version of the forum working with the new software. I know some of you had become accustomed to that. However, I think the new forum software actually looks great on mobile devises without a special app. That was part of the appeal of the new software. Just go straight to https://forum.tsptalk.com/
Stockcharts.com had not updated the $DWCPF chart yesterday for some reason, but the ETF VXF tracks the S-fund very similarly. DWCPF has been very accurate and it was up 0.41% yesterday while VXF gained 0.44%, so it was close and I will use that chart until stockcharts.com hopefully fixes the DWCPF chart.
ACWX was down 0.22% yesterday, so let's see what return the TSP gives the I-fund. We still don't have a great ETF or index representation for the price of the I-fund, but for now ACWX will have to do. You can see the updated TSP prices and returns posted by about 8:15 PM ET daily here: https://www.tsptalk.com/tsp_share_prices.php
The chart remains in a downtrend but continues to hold at a key support level.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was down again yesterday, so no breakout yet as resistance continues to hold. As I mentioned above regarding the 10-year Yield, it could stop going up but that doesn't mean it will come down. Bonds could stabilize in a range if yields chop around without making new highs. Bonds and the F-fund move counter to the direction of yields.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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