Some afternoon selling spoiled a strong day for stocks on Thursday as the Dow, up nearly 200-points early, ended the day down 91. The S&P 500 also turned a modest gain into a loss. Small caps, which were up 1.2% in the early afternoon, tanked late and gave away most of that, although the S-fund did close with a gain. Bonds and the dollar were up on the day.
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Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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First things first. I normally don't post a commentary if the TSP is closed, but I’m actually still not 100% sure if they are processing transactions today. The website made no indication either way and they normally do post the closing announcement a week in advance. But one of our forum members posted that they called and was told that they were closed. So I called and they also told me that they were closed, but when I told them that the website did not indicate that, they just responded with, "You're right, that's odd."
So I’m not sure. The stock market has NYSE rule 7.2, which says when a holiday falls on a Saturday, the market will close on the preceding Friday -- unless, "unusual business conditions exist, such as the ending of a monthly or yearly accounting period."
So maybe, complete speculation on my part, the TSP has a similar rule and will process electronic transactions, but because many of the employees are off and won't be available for customer service, they assume it is close? Again, I'm not sure.
Anyway, let's take a quick look at the charts:
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was up early and enough to put in another new intraday all time high, but the afternoon sell off pushed it lower and it actually created a negative outside reversal day. Today's trading won't be "normal" by any means, so it's questionable what that negative setup means for the new few days, being that a New Year can start off with a bang or a bust. The index is up against some resistance that could ignite some selling, but again, next week new money could be coming in, or we could see some selling from those who did not want to put gains on their 2021's tax returns, and selling on Monday would defer that owed tax for a year.
The Dow made a new high, but it turned out to be a false breakout - at least so far, and we could be seeing a double top here.
The small caps (S-fund) were having a big day early as it challenged Tuesday's highs, but the late selling pushed it back down, and this chart has a lot of resistance near 2225, both in the short and longer term charts.
The I-fund was down, and the dollar was up so that didn't help. Digesting the big rally off the lows from the 20th is not the worst thing that can happen here, but it is stalling at the top of a parallel channel, which may be a bear flag, but that is a stretch at this point since it is near the prior highs.
BND (bonds / F-fund) moved higher and attempted to fill in an open gap, which it nearly did. It remains in that wedge like formation below its moving averages. Wednesday's breakdown was quickly repaired, but this is pre-holiday action and the technical analysis may not be as reliable
Admin Note: The AutoTracker will rollover to the New Year this weekend. If you haven't logged in in a while, this would be a good time to do so to avoid having your account go into inactive mode. Also, if you are not on the AutoTracker, this is a good time to start so that we track your full year in 2022. I did find a bug that may have been preventing new users from creating an account, but that has been fixed. Really sorry if that effected you.
More: https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/rules-tos-and-info-please-read/9658-autotracker-rules-how-get-started.html#post320464
So I’m not sure. The stock market has NYSE rule 7.2, which says when a holiday falls on a Saturday, the market will close on the preceding Friday -- unless, "unusual business conditions exist, such as the ending of a monthly or yearly accounting period."
So maybe, complete speculation on my part, the TSP has a similar rule and will process electronic transactions, but because many of the employees are off and won't be available for customer service, they assume it is close? Again, I'm not sure.
Anyway, let's take a quick look at the charts:
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was up early and enough to put in another new intraday all time high, but the afternoon sell off pushed it lower and it actually created a negative outside reversal day. Today's trading won't be "normal" by any means, so it's questionable what that negative setup means for the new few days, being that a New Year can start off with a bang or a bust. The index is up against some resistance that could ignite some selling, but again, next week new money could be coming in, or we could see some selling from those who did not want to put gains on their 2021's tax returns, and selling on Monday would defer that owed tax for a year.
The Dow made a new high, but it turned out to be a false breakout - at least so far, and we could be seeing a double top here.
The small caps (S-fund) were having a big day early as it challenged Tuesday's highs, but the late selling pushed it back down, and this chart has a lot of resistance near 2225, both in the short and longer term charts.
The I-fund was down, and the dollar was up so that didn't help. Digesting the big rally off the lows from the 20th is not the worst thing that can happen here, but it is stalling at the top of a parallel channel, which may be a bear flag, but that is a stretch at this point since it is near the prior highs.
BND (bonds / F-fund) moved higher and attempted to fill in an open gap, which it nearly did. It remains in that wedge like formation below its moving averages. Wednesday's breakdown was quickly repaired, but this is pre-holiday action and the technical analysis may not be as reliable
Admin Note: The AutoTracker will rollover to the New Year this weekend. If you haven't logged in in a while, this would be a good time to do so to avoid having your account go into inactive mode. Also, if you are not on the AutoTracker, this is a good time to start so that we track your full year in 2022. I did find a bug that may have been preventing new users from creating an account, but that has been fixed. Really sorry if that effected you.
More: https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/rules-tos-and-info-please-read/9658-autotracker-rules-how-get-started.html#post320464
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
