I did watch the morning action yesterday up until about the TSP deadline, but then I was on the road for 5+ hours. However I did see that the indices barely moved from the time I left my office at around noon until I got back online to check out the charts after the close. So it was a mixed, kind of quiet Tuesday after Monday's selloff. There was no rebound or bounce, but no tack on selling either and the charts are telling an interesting story of a market that may have an excuse to go either way.
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The Dow was flat, the S&P was down slightly, and the Nasdaq lagged. The dollar was up yesterday but the I-fund didn't really flinch as it led on the upside again with a moderate gain. Well, at least EFA ETF, which the I-fund tracks, did. We'll see what price the TSP gives the I-fund when it gets posted later (Tuesday night.)
The yield on the 10-year was up again but as I mentioned regarding the stock indices, bonds look like they have a reason to go in either direction as well as I see a big bull flag on this chart, yet a more modest sized bearish looking flag (red.) For those who may not know, bonds and the F-fund generally move in the opposite direction as yields.
The S&P 500 chart looks quite interesting. There is a bullish looking flag developing, but it could also be considered an "F" flag, which is more bearish. The difference is the slop of the flag, and in this case it's kind of in between the two, although currently leaning more toward an F-flag. The open gap below would be a potential downside target if this flag breaks down. There is also an open gap above near 4070 - not shown on this chart, but it is on the large chart down below. But if this happens to be a bull flag and breaks to the upside, that gap could be a potential upside target.
It's a busy week for economic data including the November jobs report which comes out on Friday with estimates looking for a gain of about 200,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.7%. But today's catalyst will be the speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. I had mentioned yesterday that the speech was on Thursday, but I got that wrong because I see it is now scheduled for 1:30 PM ET today. It could be his final appearance before the next FOMC meeting and rate hike.
Admin note: I was on the road most of the day yesterday, and I may be back on the road later today, or more likely tomorrow. I had to take care of some personal business and when I head back home depends on when I get things done, and the weather. So, depending on which day I travel, the commentary may have to be brief that day. Sorry for any inconvenience.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) shows the bunching of resistance overhead so at this point the surprise move would be to the upside above 4100. I am always on the lookout for the big money to try to fool us and get us to lean the wrong way, so a move up to that 4050+ area before a fall back down could mess with everyone. I wouldn't rule that out but overall this looks mostly bearish - either now, or after they fake us out with a surprise upside move first.
The DWCPF (small caps / S-fund) chart looks bearish to me as well, but the 20 and 50-day EMAs have been holding so the bulls are doing some buying in this area. Can they keep it up? I marked Veteran's Day on a few charts today to show that it was a bit of a fake out on that light volume trading day.
The EFA (I-fund) had another gain yesterday although it is still below the recent double top area and there are a couple of large open gaps below. That could be an F-flag but it hasn't even tested the lower side of the flag yet. It's above its 200-day EMA and that's a bullish sign since that's usually a tough barrier to get above in a bear market.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was down sharply as yields rallied yesterday. Again, maybe another F-flag here with that large open gap waiting to be filled below. It's testing the lower end of that flag now so today we may get a breakdown, or the flag will resume with a move toward the upper end again.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks so much for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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The Dow was flat, the S&P was down slightly, and the Nasdaq lagged. The dollar was up yesterday but the I-fund didn't really flinch as it led on the upside again with a moderate gain. Well, at least EFA ETF, which the I-fund tracks, did. We'll see what price the TSP gives the I-fund when it gets posted later (Tuesday night.)
The yield on the 10-year was up again but as I mentioned regarding the stock indices, bonds look like they have a reason to go in either direction as well as I see a big bull flag on this chart, yet a more modest sized bearish looking flag (red.) For those who may not know, bonds and the F-fund generally move in the opposite direction as yields.
The S&P 500 chart looks quite interesting. There is a bullish looking flag developing, but it could also be considered an "F" flag, which is more bearish. The difference is the slop of the flag, and in this case it's kind of in between the two, although currently leaning more toward an F-flag. The open gap below would be a potential downside target if this flag breaks down. There is also an open gap above near 4070 - not shown on this chart, but it is on the large chart down below. But if this happens to be a bull flag and breaks to the upside, that gap could be a potential upside target.
It's a busy week for economic data including the November jobs report which comes out on Friday with estimates looking for a gain of about 200,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.7%. But today's catalyst will be the speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. I had mentioned yesterday that the speech was on Thursday, but I got that wrong because I see it is now scheduled for 1:30 PM ET today. It could be his final appearance before the next FOMC meeting and rate hike.
Admin note: I was on the road most of the day yesterday, and I may be back on the road later today, or more likely tomorrow. I had to take care of some personal business and when I head back home depends on when I get things done, and the weather. So, depending on which day I travel, the commentary may have to be brief that day. Sorry for any inconvenience.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) shows the bunching of resistance overhead so at this point the surprise move would be to the upside above 4100. I am always on the lookout for the big money to try to fool us and get us to lean the wrong way, so a move up to that 4050+ area before a fall back down could mess with everyone. I wouldn't rule that out but overall this looks mostly bearish - either now, or after they fake us out with a surprise upside move first.
The DWCPF (small caps / S-fund) chart looks bearish to me as well, but the 20 and 50-day EMAs have been holding so the bulls are doing some buying in this area. Can they keep it up? I marked Veteran's Day on a few charts today to show that it was a bit of a fake out on that light volume trading day.
The EFA (I-fund) had another gain yesterday although it is still below the recent double top area and there are a couple of large open gaps below. That could be an F-flag but it hasn't even tested the lower side of the flag yet. It's above its 200-day EMA and that's a bullish sign since that's usually a tough barrier to get above in a bear market.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was down sharply as yields rallied yesterday. Again, maybe another F-flag here with that large open gap waiting to be filled below. It's testing the lower end of that flag now so today we may get a breakdown, or the flag will resume with a move toward the upper end again.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks so much for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
