Stocks faded late to turn a quiet day into a blah day on Tuesday. Nothing serious yet - just a day of rest after the recent 7 or 8 day rally off the recent lows. The indices are getting a little overheated and even the bulls realize we may need to see some consolidation of the recent gains. The Dow lost 97-points and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both ticked into negative territory just before the close. Small caps held onto gains but also faded late.
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The internal numbers were slightly positive with more shares advancing than declining on both the NYSE and Nasdaq, despite the small loss in the indices.
Bond yields fell down below 1.7% again but again testing some possible support. The growth stocks didn't do poorly, but yields as a catalysts seems to have simmered down.
The price of oil has been a decent barometer for stocks although it has lost a lot of steam since the early march highs, and that bear flag could be a bad sign for the stock market if it breaks down, as bear flags tend to do. That 50-day EMA is trying to hold but its been tested about a dozen times in the last two weeks.
There hasn't been a lot of news out there so the talk on Wall Street lately has been about that Archegos Capital Management that failed recently. The talk is about, who is next? Many believe it's not a matter of if, but when the next fund goes broke because of over levered accounts. I think a second, or a third, could stop this market in its tracks, so who is going to fess up next?
Coinbase, the largest crypto currency broker, will go public with next week's IPO. It may be a hot stock, but as the bitcoin crazed era continues, how fitting would it be for this market to peak once this IPO hits the trading ticker? It seems appropriate.
March Madness contest link: Winners posted! Thanks to all who participated!
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was down slightly after a quiet, mostly flat day of a trading. That spinning top candlestick is often considered a sign of fatigue and a possible reversal formation, but we all know the market should be fatigued after what it has done over the last week or two. It's reaching toward the top of the blue rising trading channel, and yesterday's open created an open gap near 4025 that would be the first target on any pullback. Every breakout since about November has seen a pullback at least back to the breakout level so maybe 3980 is also a target?
The DWCPF (small caps / S-fund) outperformed the large caps and it may have been the small rally in oil yesterday, even though the chart of oil looks precarious. 2200 is a possible upside target but if it reverses down before then, it could be in trouble as it would be another lower high.
The EFA (I-Fund) fell sharply filling its open gap from Monday. It's also back in the wedge formation after another breakout failure.
BND (bonds / F-fund) rallied with those yields falling. It was due for a pop but the bear flag is still intact.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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The internal numbers were slightly positive with more shares advancing than declining on both the NYSE and Nasdaq, despite the small loss in the indices.
Bond yields fell down below 1.7% again but again testing some possible support. The growth stocks didn't do poorly, but yields as a catalysts seems to have simmered down.
The price of oil has been a decent barometer for stocks although it has lost a lot of steam since the early march highs, and that bear flag could be a bad sign for the stock market if it breaks down, as bear flags tend to do. That 50-day EMA is trying to hold but its been tested about a dozen times in the last two weeks.
There hasn't been a lot of news out there so the talk on Wall Street lately has been about that Archegos Capital Management that failed recently. The talk is about, who is next? Many believe it's not a matter of if, but when the next fund goes broke because of over levered accounts. I think a second, or a third, could stop this market in its tracks, so who is going to fess up next?
Coinbase, the largest crypto currency broker, will go public with next week's IPO. It may be a hot stock, but as the bitcoin crazed era continues, how fitting would it be for this market to peak once this IPO hits the trading ticker? It seems appropriate.
March Madness contest link: Winners posted! Thanks to all who participated!
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was down slightly after a quiet, mostly flat day of a trading. That spinning top candlestick is often considered a sign of fatigue and a possible reversal formation, but we all know the market should be fatigued after what it has done over the last week or two. It's reaching toward the top of the blue rising trading channel, and yesterday's open created an open gap near 4025 that would be the first target on any pullback. Every breakout since about November has seen a pullback at least back to the breakout level so maybe 3980 is also a target?
The DWCPF (small caps / S-fund) outperformed the large caps and it may have been the small rally in oil yesterday, even though the chart of oil looks precarious. 2200 is a possible upside target but if it reverses down before then, it could be in trouble as it would be another lower high.
The EFA (I-Fund) fell sharply filling its open gap from Monday. It's also back in the wedge formation after another breakout failure.
BND (bonds / F-fund) rallied with those yields falling. It was due for a pop but the bear flag is still intact.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
