What a ride? Up, down, up, down, up - it was quite a day for the stock market on Thursday as investors digested some Mag 7 earnings. There was some early volatility as the indices looked for direction, but with Apple reporting after the bell and a tariff announcement about 30 minutes before the closing bell, I hope you were wearing your seat belts. Yields were down slightly and the dollar rode the tariff rollercoaster.
You can see the latest updated TSP share prices and returns, usually posted daily by 8:30 PM ET here: https://www.tsptalk.com/tsp_share_prices.php
The loss in Microsoft put Apple back into the market cap lead, but they reported after hours and it looked like a disappointment - until the conference call. The initial reaction in after hours trading was muted - flat to down about 1.5%, but they guided higher and started to rally back nicely and were up about 3% in evening trading.
In between those two reports there was a brief market shakeup. Love him, or hate him, there is never a dull moment when Trump is in charge. Yesterday the late afternoon rally that had the Dow flirting with a new closing all-time high, was smacked back down with 30 minutes left in the trading day, and it was suddenly in negative territory. The knee-jerk reaction was temporary however, and investors started to buy the dip back just as quickly, although the indices did not recover all of those 3:30 PM losses.
The dollar also rode the rollercoaster and the I-fund took the ride as well -- and survived nicely.
ACWX (the I-fund tracking index) was up 1.3% yesterday and the I-fund was given a gain of 1.01%. The chart continues to hold and improve, although the frequent, and plentiful open gaps on this chart can make investors quite jittery.
The small caps of the Russell 2000 were flying high on Thursday afternoon until the tariff shakeup. While it did close with a solid gain of 1%, that late move lower pushed it back to close below its 50-day simple moving average (green.) That's the third time it traded above that average, but closed back below it. It did close above the descending resistance line for the first time.
The Transportation Index was beaten down by a 14% loss in UPS yesterday. That F-flag that I talked about the other day did break down, as they tend to do, but it has yet to fill that open gap and it was able to close above the 50-day EMA after plummeting below it earlier in the day.
The reaction to Apple will be a major influence today, but before that opening bell rings we will get the PCE Prices and Personal Income and Spending report. As I mentioned earlier, it is a concern with inflation back on the Fed's minds, but with the FOMC meeting in the rear-view mirror, it may not be as impactful to the stock market unless it's a real outlier.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) nearly filled the open gap yesterday, and it it is inching closer to its previous highs again. Whether this would still be considered part of the double top, I 'm not sure. It depends how long it takes to test 6100 again. It could be a triple top, which is less scary. The bulls are hoping that Apple can push it over the finish line, but you never know when the next tariff announcement will come.
DWCPF (S-fund) was up big despite giving up a lot of its early gains in that final hour of trading on Thursday. The I-fund outpaced it, which is a big change recently, but if this can get back above 2400, there's not a lot of resistance on the way up to the previous highs.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was up modestly and it is making its way up to the top of the large descending trading channel after closing above its 50-day EMA for a 4th straight day.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
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| Daily TSP Funds Return
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You can see the latest updated TSP share prices and returns, usually posted daily by 8:30 PM ET here: https://www.tsptalk.com/tsp_share_prices.php
We saw mixed action from the three Magnificent 7 companies that reports after the bell on Wednesday, so there was some pushing and pulling on Thursday morning and by the close Microsoft fell 6%, Tesla gained 3%, and Meta added 1.5%. So the big gains we were seeing by late afternoon were impressive with Microsoft, the largest US company by market cap before the day began, down sharply. The loss in Microsoft put Apple back into the market cap lead, but they reported after hours and it looked like a disappointment - until the conference call. The initial reaction in after hours trading was muted - flat to down about 1.5%, but they guided higher and started to rally back nicely and were up about 3% in evening trading.
In between those two reports there was a brief market shakeup. Love him, or hate him, there is never a dull moment when Trump is in charge. Yesterday the late afternoon rally that had the Dow flirting with a new closing all-time high, was smacked back down with 30 minutes left in the trading day, and it was suddenly in negative territory. The knee-jerk reaction was temporary however, and investors started to buy the dip back just as quickly, although the indices did not recover all of those 3:30 PM losses.
The dollar also rode the rollercoaster and the I-fund took the ride as well -- and survived nicely.
ACWX (the I-fund tracking index) was up 1.3% yesterday and the I-fund was given a gain of 1.01%. The chart continues to hold and improve, although the frequent, and plentiful open gaps on this chart can make investors quite jittery.
The small caps of the Russell 2000 were flying high on Thursday afternoon until the tariff shakeup. While it did close with a solid gain of 1%, that late move lower pushed it back to close below its 50-day simple moving average (green.) That's the third time it traded above that average, but closed back below it. It did close above the descending resistance line for the first time.
The Transportation Index was beaten down by a 14% loss in UPS yesterday. That F-flag that I talked about the other day did break down, as they tend to do, but it has yet to fill that open gap and it was able to close above the 50-day EMA after plummeting below it earlier in the day.
The reaction to Apple will be a major influence today, but before that opening bell rings we will get the PCE Prices and Personal Income and Spending report. As I mentioned earlier, it is a concern with inflation back on the Fed's minds, but with the FOMC meeting in the rear-view mirror, it may not be as impactful to the stock market unless it's a real outlier.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) nearly filled the open gap yesterday, and it it is inching closer to its previous highs again. Whether this would still be considered part of the double top, I 'm not sure. It depends how long it takes to test 6100 again. It could be a triple top, which is less scary. The bulls are hoping that Apple can push it over the finish line, but you never know when the next tariff announcement will come.
DWCPF (S-fund) was up big despite giving up a lot of its early gains in that final hour of trading on Thursday. The I-fund outpaced it, which is a big change recently, but if this can get back above 2400, there's not a lot of resistance on the way up to the previous highs.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was up modestly and it is making its way up to the top of the large descending trading channel after closing above its 50-day EMA for a 4th straight day.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
