TSP Fund Correlation

Greetings

TLDR: When The C-Fund closes up, the FSI Funds are more likely to close up. When The C-Fund closes down, the FSI Funds are less likely to close down.

Since I consider our C-Fund to be the standard by which all other funds should be measured, I thought it would be a good time to measure the correlation of the funds. Simply put, how often do the FSI funds trade in the same direction or against the C-Fund. For this study I've chosen to use 11, 27, 55, & 101 sessions, this will give us a good sample of data where the markets were trading both Bullish & Bearish.

First up, is a chart that shows both directions for the C-Fund, and how often the FSI funds traded in the same direction. As you might suspect, the S-Fund has the strongest correlation across all time frames, followed by the I-Fund (and in a distant third) the F-Fund.

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The second charts shows only the positive days where the C-Fund closed up. What's interesting, is that the positive correlation with the C & I Funds gets stronger on all time frames. The I-Fund ties with the S-Fund on 11 & 101 sessions & beats the S-Fund on 27 & 55 sessions. Perhaps the I-Fund performance gap improves based on the direction of the dollar, (this data has not been factored in for this study).

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The Third chart shows only the negative days where the C-Fund closed down. This is where it gets fun, with only 1 exception, the FSI funds are all less likely to close down with the C-Fund. The S-Fund correlation is still the strongest, but the F & I funds gain an advance here (breaking away from the C-Fund).

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Thanks for reading... Jason

 
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