Tipping Point

The Seven Sentinels went to a sell condition two weeks ago tomorrow. As it turns out, that signal was just about perfectly timed.



As you can see, all signals remain in sell conditions, which keeps the system in an intermediate term sell condition.

Market internals had been predicting lower prices for weeks, which the system recognized early on. But it took two weeks for the market to reach the tipping point after that sell signal was achieved. Patience has now been rewarded.

How long will this sell signal last? It all depends on when the system flips back to a buy condition and that will require all signals to return to a buy condition simultaneously.

It is now time to be patient once again.

 

[u.s.dan]

Ah, patience. May be the hardest part of this game.

 

[Bronco07]

Concur CH,
Patience is the main ingredient to TSP investing especially with only 2 primary IFT's per month ..... once again the EU instability issue is providing the markets with volatility. Cheers

 

[DigDugII]

If I could do it over again I would have retreated my last 25% of stock into G on the last day of February to wait and see. Unfortunately, I couldn’t make it to a computer in time to make the IFT before the deadline. Cautiously resisting the urge to get back in on the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] day of March and reluctant to burn an IFT on a 25% retreat. Here I am 4 trading days later….still thinking. I'll have to admit as I watched the clock ticking away the final minutes to the 12:00 EST close today that it was real tempting to put all the chips on the table as I saw a significant, sustained, dip playing out. However, I was watching the same clock and thinking the same thing the day before! Although my hunch is tomorrow may prove to be an opportunity to buy and sell a quick gain, or a better day to retreat to safer ground, I just couldn't gamble what has been a great 2 month ride up…….only to watch it chipped away and disappear with a few more consecutive 'bad hands' being dealt out at the table. When a number of the 'card counters' like the 7-Sentinels are indicating that a lot of the 'high cards' have already been played and your risk is growing higher, amateurs like myself have to step from the table. I ultimately decided to.... listen, pause, and wait for the 'deck to be reshuffled.'

Soaring fuel prices, republican primaries, contraception, Thursday…the Greece saga continues, Israel, Iran, China, tornados in the winter? Cumulonimbus clouds are on the horizon, there’s a storm brewing and no one’s sure which direction it’s moving…….bad mojo, I need break!!!

Thanks CH for your update!

DD

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Some folks have a psychological desire to trade, to do SOMETHING with their accounts to make them grow. Patience is one of the hardest disciplines to master. Following a good system like Coolhand has here can really give TSP participants an advantage over buy & hold, or switching in an out of funds at the wrong time. Kudos Coolhand, for performing such a good service for the many folks who follow your advice.

John

 

[Mapper]

Coolhand, question:

Have you found, over the years, that the 7 sentinels have performed better at predicting buys, sells or no discernible difference.

Wish I had followed them on this move. Even if this is the extent of the drop, selling 2 weeks ago and reinvesting at this level would make for some real nice compounded gains!

 

[coolhand]

Coolhand, question:

Have you found, over the years, that the 7 sentinels have performed better at predicting buys, sells or no discernible difference.

Wish I had followed them on this move. Even if this is the extent of the drop, selling 2 weeks ago and reinvesting at this level would make for some real nice compounded gains!

I was not introduced to this system until a few years ago, and I watched its performance on and off for some time after that before I chose to use it to manage my portfolio. My knowledge of its performance is limited to only the past few years as a result. I have not noticed any difference in performance between buy and sell signals in that time.

 

[coolhand]

Some folks have a psychological desire to trade, to do SOMETHING with their accounts to make them grow. Patience is one of the hardest disciplines to master. Following a good system like Coolhand has here can really give TSP participants an advantage over buy & hold, or switching in an out of funds at the wrong time. Kudos Coolhand, for performing such a good service for the many folks who follow your advice.

John

Thanks John. Like many folks reading my blog, I have had my own issues with patience and perspective over the years. I suspect most of us who chose to follow the market this closely run into that problem. It takes time to develop both.