Time for new thoughts- and strategies

[James48843]

Well, it hurts to have freedom taken away. And we'll always remember the fight.

But in the greater scheme of things- it really just notches up the challenge.

Until we can get a legislative solution (and a little hint here- it usually takes TEN YEARS between the time someone decides to fight like heck for something, and the time it becomes law in DC- that's just the norm there) then we have a new challenge ahead of us.

So, now that new rules are in place:

What kind of strategies can we employ to make the most under the new rules?

My goal is going to be to try and beat the S&P500. That's all I can ask for. Consistently.

If I can do that, I'll be ok.

And my strategy is going to be to try and clip a little each month, when I see a good opportunity on a down-stroke, to sell on the upswing, and then buy back in lower a while later when I can.

Right now we've got a nice choppy period to try that in. I'm not sure what I will do if things calm down significantly and the markets start to chug along like they've done in the past.

So how about you?

What strategies can you think of to best the system, when we only have two moves per month?

Speak up and give me your thoughts-- your ideas-- you theory of how to catch a little bit better return.

Let's focus on that for a while.

thanks

 

[Birchtree]

As always simply try to be right and then sit tight. Don't worry so much about the nickles and dimes - wait on the quarters and half dollars to come around. Try and plan your investing strategy at least a minimum of three months in advance and preferably as far out as a year or two years. Your primary objective should be focused on searching for the top and not worrying about weekly dips or intermediate corrections. That was one short hair bear market we just experienced, right? I never believed it and still don't - that's why I'm not worried about capital preservation. The best is truly yet to arrive.

 

[JTH]

I'll be staying focused on G & C

If I think I've found a bottom, I'll deploy 65%

If my bottom gets crushed and a new bottom forms, then I'll deploy the rest and scale back into G in increments on the way back up.

If it keeps going down after the 2nd bottom, then I'll pick my line in the sand before going back to G.

It's just a thought for now and certainly open to critisism. :suspicious:

 

[Babo]

Does anyone here have a basic layout of what it would cost/take (if even allowed for FERS still working) to remove my money and invest elsewhere for:

a) gov/personal contributions via work I have accumulated, and
b) for a private sector IRA portion I (regretfully) rolled roll-into the TSP about 4 years ago.

(other than via reduced future contributions or loan).

Thanks

 

[Braveheart]

Well right now I'm 100% F Fund and my only reason is it is cheap and has the upside of .10 cents so my plan is to hold and move out at $12.20 - $12.23 and when I do it will be over to the C Fund S Fund & I Fund.

So my 1st IFT move will be triggered by when the F Fund hits that mark. The downside risk is inflation but I have to start with a plan and what I will look for is what Fund is the best value. I read Brichtree on another thread when he stated he doesn't ever remember being in the G Fund and I thought that was a classic line. He has a plan clearly and what I like about his thought process is he is in control and won't let the TSP or the Market control his moves. It's high risk but after sitting in the G Fund for so long you can't lose and 3 cents a month is pathetic so the G is safe yet with limited moves but it's like running uphill on roller blades.

Since the FV may be exposed with the I Fund at the last day of the month maybe the 2nd IFT would be to move all into the Fund and maybe the L Funds just 1 day before the end of the month. I can't believe I would consider the L Funds but now with this system and a plan they could be a good play. Since Barclays was found to use the last day of the month we could use this to our advantage with the FV.

Right now I think the S Fund is overpriced and the C Fund may take a hit this week so I would look for an entry point to the C Fund at $15.30 and the S Fund at $18.10 but the Market may not comply and either way once the F Fund hits my target I moving to the C, S, and I and if the F Fund takes 3 weeks to hit my mark then I will hold until I get my price.

It's a start and I know there are many great minds on this board that could put together our own different plans and ideas that could help everyone.

 

[luv2read]

Does anyone here have a basic layout of what it would cost/take (if even allowed for FERS still working) to remove my money and invest elsewhere for:

a) gov/personal contributions via work I have accumulated, and
b) for a private sector IRA portion I (regretfully) rolled roll-into the TSP about 4 years ago.

(other than via reduced future contributions or loan).

Thanks

You can't take it out unless you separate, retire or are 59-1/2 or older.

Rollovers from private plans, CSRS and military are getting screwed more than the rest of us. They were sold a bill of goods "come on and share the TSP pot!" then the rules changed midstream. Now their money is held hostage.

 

[The HalfBreed]

Small Cap and International are unknowns, but a good source of 'Advancement', in that, most of the growth will be there, IMHO.

I've basically stuck with a combo of C and F fund. In the past 4 years tho, I've had a tendency to put the 5K catchup contributions into the "G" fund, in 4 installments as a prelude to retirement. Over all, I change the allotment % more often than not. I normally run 50% C, 25% G and F funds nomimal. In times of lowering interest rates, I change all bi-weekly allotments to 100% F fund, as I did last Aug or so.
When the stock market hit just under 12,000 DOW, I changed and started putting 80% into C fund, and 10/10 split into G and F. I feel the rate may stop being cut, so I'll throttle back to 50/25/25 in the near future.

It may not be for everyone, but I feel that yanking out everything to put into the G fund may force me to 'loose an opportunity' elsewhere.

That's just my little opinion tho.

 

[nnuut]

I've been trying to look at three to four week trends. Tech analysis combined with a sharp eye out for the great unknown. To recognize trends is the trick, the trend is your friend. Now that that has been said, just how do you do that smarty?:notrust:

 

[12%ayear]

I have a plan. You have to plan ahead and do not be afraid to lock profits The 1st move should be your best play. I worked on a plan that should be very good.

 

[Braveheart]

I have a plan. You have to plan ahead and do not be afraid to lock profits The 1st move should be your best play. I worked on a plan that should be very good.

I would love to hear your plan. I spelled out mine below now the problem with any plan is right now I don't see a play here. I don't lile the I Fund with the dollar and all the FV crap. I won't waste an IFT to the G Fund So there are the L Funds which I was in for one day since they came out and the S Fund & C Fund and F Fund look like the only plays.

Right now I am 100% F Fund and I know once it hits that $12.23 mark down it goes. I believe it was $12.25 for one day ever so after $12.23 it's a bad play I would rather move out expecting the market to drop Friday to set up next week in the C & S but these restrictions really suck without them I would be moving to the G Fund tomorrow. - Best of Luck

 

[sdouglas3]

I feel we can beat the markets as well even with 2 IFT's a month. It will be trickier though. I think we will have to use the weekly charts to make good buying decisions (which is key for this to work). You can get charts at www.stockcharts.com

Anyone have any thoughts on this?

Steve

 

[Ed_the_Fed]

It will be very difficult to develop any system that can't allow multiple moves in a month. Most systems I can think of would get you out of the market after it has already started back down and back into the market after it starts to go back up. SO in a nutshell, you have lost money at both the top and bottom.

I have now moved to a charting system where I have five charts to help me make decisions. I will invest solely in the I fund or the G fund until the day comes when the I fund performs at a lower relative strength level to the S or C. This has not been the case for a number of years. It will be strictly 100I or 100G, no splits. Since May 2003, only 11 buy signals have been generated (21 total trades since a sell invokes a transfer to the G). The most recent buy signal occurred on March 19th.

My backtesting results tend to support my claim at the beginning that you will lose money on tops and bottoms with any system. My backtest yields a 99 percent gain since May 2003. If you had just bought the I fund and held it the entire time, you would be up 138% through yesterday COB. This is rather frustrating buy at least my system will prevent me from having ulsers when the market tanks and I wouldn't just be sitting in the I watching my funds evaporate into thin air.

The simple fact of the matter is I just fail to understand why the TSP Board didn't just elect to charge a fee for moves above a set number (say 2 since that is the ridiculoulsly low figure they went with). That way everybody is happy. The buy and holders are happy and the constant fund shifters are happy. Win-win situation as I see it.

 

[tsptalk]

Hi Ed -

Trader Fred was thinking of incorporating longer term signals like MA crossovers, but your point was the same as mine - you miss a big part of the move before the signals are given.

You might want to incorporate sentiment into your mix. Depending which method you use (surveys, put/call ratios, rydex asset allocation, etc.) you can get a better feel for bottoms and tops based on extreme readings. Just a thought.

Also, the win-win situation you mention assumes something that may not be true. I don't think the TSP wanted everyone to win. They were hell bent on stopping the frequent trading. They gave 2 reasons for not implementing a fee structured system. The first said they were worried participants would make mistakes and be charged a fee for something they didn't want to do, which is a little insulting. The second was that they were not sure exactly how much to charge per transaction since they don't always know how much the transaction will cost. The second one makes more sense.

 

[camper65]

For what it’s worth, I too have tracked and charted the TSP since May of 2003 and use that information as a primary source in decision making. I also listen carefully to market sentiment for bear and bull bias. My TV is stuck on CNBC though I don’t put there opinions in concrete. I do pay attention to treasuries and indicators as to were the money is going.
As to the IFT’s controversy. It is my opinion that there are segments of our government that are looking at a 250 billion dollar piggy bank and would love to get another 10% into the G fund to play with!

 

[buda]

Let me get this correct so I dont shoot myself in the foot. If I am sitting 100% 'I', I can make unlimited moves in increments to the G fund? Even surpassing the 2 set by FTRB

 

[Guest2]

Let me get this correct so I dont shoot myself in the foot. If I am sitting 100% 'I', I can make unlimited moves in increments to the G fund? Even surpassing the 2 set by FTRB

YES,,,,,,Buda, thats correct. 1% at a time,,,,,5% at a time,,,,,50%
at a time,,,,,,,etc

 

[Eagle_Addict]

But now comes the tricky part.....

Let me get this correct so I dont shoot myself in the foot. If I am sitting 100% 'I', I can make unlimited moves in increments to the G fund? Even surpassing the 2 set by FTRB

I thought the same thing, start with a high allocation, then scale back into the G fund as the climate changes, then, if you are heavy G, and something positive happens where you want to get back into stocks, use YOUR SECOND IFT to shift into stocks......WRONG!!!,,,, I tried that, and now I cannot make a second trade, the TSP line 'helper' says that my first 2 trades, any 2 trades, count as my 2 IFTs for the month, then I can only do a G fund transfer....even if my second trade was a stock to G fund......I do not agree, I was of the opinion that we could do a Stock Fund (C, S, I, F) into G anytime and it would not count, but by their logic, if I started the month from the previous month heavy in stocks, and on the second moved 25% into G fund, then another 25% into G fund 2 days later, I have now completed "my 2 trades for the month".......And I do not believe that is what the TSP said we could do....since I did not trade into stocks (i.e. I did not increase my allocation into a stock fund), and only increased my G fund holdings FROM MY STOCK HOLDINGS, I thought that was unlimited....but TSP is counting any first 2 transfers as the first 2, then only G fund transfers......Anyone have a better read on this???

Thanks, EA

 

[XL-entLady]

Re: But now comes the tricky part.....

I thought the same thing, start with a high allocation, then scale back into the G fund as the climate changes, then, if you are heavy G, and something positive happens where you want to get back into stocks, use YOUR SECOND IFT to shift into stocks......WRONG!!!,,,, I tried that, and now I cannot make a second trade, the TSP line 'helper' says that my first 2 trades, any 2 trades, count as my 2 IFTs for the month, then I can only do a G fund transfer....even if my second trade was a stock to G fund......I do not agree, I was of the opinion that we could do a Stock Fund (C, S, I, F) into G anytime and it would not count, but by their logic, if I started the month from the previous month heavy in stocks, and on the second moved 25% into G fund, then another 25% into G fund 2 days later, I have now completed "my 2 trades for the month".......And I do not believe that is what the TSP said we could do....since I did not trade into stocks (i.e. I did not increase my allocation into a stock fund), and only increased my G fund holdings FROM MY STOCK HOLDINGS, I thought that was unlimited....but TSP is counting any first 2 transfers as the first 2, then only G fund transfers......Anyone have a better read on this???

Thanks, EA

The reason TSP presents for the IFT limit is to decrease costs. (Right.:suspicious But because that's the reason, you only get 2 IFTs for the month.

ANY 2 IFTs count!

Then in order to ensure that we can get our $ to safety in case of an extreme market downturn (again their thoughts not mine) they have magnanimously allowed us to move to G after we have used our 2 IFTs for the month. I think at the time they set up the rules they hadn't considered incremental moves to G or they'd probably have blocked that as well.

Lady

 

[luv2read]

It's two plus G. The first two IFT's of the month are "unrestricted" - you can move to ANY fund. This includes IFT's TO G FUND - they count. Once you've used those two "unrestricted" IFT's, you are restricted to IFT's ONLY TO G FUND. However, you can make as many transfers to G fund as you want.

If your first IFT of the month is to G fund, you've just used one of your "unrestriced" IFT's. So be careful. One strategy is to set up at the end of the month for the following month by moving into G on the last day of the month. That way you start the month with a clean slate - two IFT's.

The rules on TSP website are pretty clear, they even give an example using an IFT to G fund as the first or 2nd IFT of the month, and we've discussed it in-depth on several threads here.

 

[Fivetears]

That's about as crystal clear as it gets L2R.