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This Week in Stocks: 7/28 - 8/3/07
- Thread starter Show-me
- Start date
- Status
ATCJeff
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 26
Probably a computer Buying Program triggered? I think!!
this was my guess since we bounced twice off the lows.
robo
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 471
Tom,
The Big Squeeze em! Have you seen the Sentiment levels from Jason.
71 to 32, WOW!
Robo
Dave's Daily
Wednesday August 1, 2007
Previous | Archives
MARKET COMMENT
August 1, 2007
“Someone”, you know who you are, had fun this afternoon. A trading desk at a large brokerage? A hedge fund with a sense of when to squeeze ‘em? Or, da man? You can bet your bottom dollar we’ll be hearing plenty of conspiracy theories after today’s craziness.
You’d never know we had this big rally based on market internals once again.
There’s no reasonable instant analysis about this late moonshot or obvious divergences. So we’ll just leave it there today with this chart and table. Let’s see if bulls can follow-though tomorrow and rest of the week. It seems neither bulls or bears have been able to gain control so far.
Have a pleasant evening.
http://www.etfdigest.com/daveDaily.php
qibovin
TSP Analyst
- Reaction score
- 6
LOL:laugh::toung::nuts:
I think you're right. Certainly Whoopi is at least a little to the right of that ex-bag-o-wind
James48843
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 907
Well there you go. That's the signal.
The Dow is now solidly going to advance from here on out.
Thanks ABC! You put the economy back on solid footing.
James48843
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 907
Seriously, the double bottom, and then the end of the day solidification was good news.
It tells me that we've hit bottom here. Now, it IS possible we could retest that bottom again, but two solid hits showed there is good resistance there.
So, if I were going to call it, I'd say the worst is over, and it's safe to come back in the water for all those lilly-paders out there.
Of course, what do I know. I'm still fully invested in the "I", and have been for the last week. (oooo that smarts....)
It tells me that we've hit bottom here. Now, it IS possible we could retest that bottom again, but two solid hits showed there is good resistance there.
So, if I were going to call it, I'd say the worst is over, and it's safe to come back in the water for all those lilly-paders out there.
Of course, what do I know. I'm still fully invested in the "I", and have been for the last week. (oooo that smarts....)
weatherweenie
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 179
Eldritch Flatus
Market Tracker
- Reaction score
- 6
This market (and market stuff) getting so wierd I herby confer my first boardname on it.:blink:
At least for me it shall henchforth be known as the 2007 Eldritch market! Heh!:nuts:
Remember; These are the good ole days. I wish us all the best of luck, and may God bless all of us.
At least for me it shall henchforth be known as the 2007 Eldritch market! Heh!:nuts:
Remember; These are the good ole days. I wish us all the best of luck, and may God bless all of us.
Show-me
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 104
http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...vestor&ArticleId=NS20070801123805LookingAhead
Employment Report Preview
Last Update: 01-Aug-07 12:37 ET
Payroll growth has averaged 145K over the first half of 2007 with a 100K range (February's 90K to May's 190K). Briefing.com estimates a slightly stronger 150K July gain as the consensus is a bit lower at 130K
As seen over the last three months, we expect service-providing jobs to rise more than the total as good-producing payrolls (including manufacturing and construction) are expected to decline. The market seems better prepared for a downward surprise given the low 48K estimate for non-government payrolls from ADP -- the company many put in charge of payroll distribution.
Briefing.com expects a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6% from the 4.5% of the prior three months and the cyclical low of 4.4% in March. The consensus call is for a steady 4.5% rate. The low labor participation rate leaves an uncomfortably low unemployment rate for the Fed given its influence on labor costs and underlying inflation.
Employment Report Preview
Last Update: 01-Aug-07 12:37 ET
Payroll growth has averaged 145K over the first half of 2007 with a 100K range (February's 90K to May's 190K). Briefing.com estimates a slightly stronger 150K July gain as the consensus is a bit lower at 130K
As seen over the last three months, we expect service-providing jobs to rise more than the total as good-producing payrolls (including manufacturing and construction) are expected to decline. The market seems better prepared for a downward surprise given the low 48K estimate for non-government payrolls from ADP -- the company many put in charge of payroll distribution.
Briefing.com expects a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6% from the 4.5% of the prior three months and the cyclical low of 4.4% in March. The consensus call is for a steady 4.5% rate. The low labor participation rate leaves an uncomfortably low unemployment rate for the Fed given its influence on labor costs and underlying inflation.
robo
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 471
Is The Selloff Over?
The second triple digit advance for the Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) in as many days has many asking if this is the end of the decline and the beginning of a new advance. What happens next?
There are many positive signs that the fast and furious decline may very well have done most of the damage and relieved the overbought conditions of the stock market. The Volatility Index (VIX) has reached highs not seen since 2006. Typically a high VIX reading, an indicator of fear in the market, leads to higher highs.
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) reached the 200-day moving average. Quite a feat in only two weeks of declines. But when it reached that well recognized support line, it rallied and closed the day with a huge gain.
We may have seen the bottom, but if you take long positions, use sell stops at the lows to protect against the possibility that the market will fool everyone and continue lower.
http://timing.typepad.com/timer/
The second triple digit advance for the Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) in as many days has many asking if this is the end of the decline and the beginning of a new advance. What happens next?
There are many positive signs that the fast and furious decline may very well have done most of the damage and relieved the overbought conditions of the stock market. The Volatility Index (VIX) has reached highs not seen since 2006. Typically a high VIX reading, an indicator of fear in the market, leads to higher highs.
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) reached the 200-day moving average. Quite a feat in only two weeks of declines. But when it reached that well recognized support line, it rallied and closed the day with a huge gain.
We may have seen the bottom, but if you take long positions, use sell stops at the lows to protect against the possibility that the market will fool everyone and continue lower.
http://timing.typepad.com/timer/
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 210
Show-me
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 104
No Sir, I Don't Like It!!
Looks like neither do the OSM's.
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 210
Tom hit the nail on the head this morning, SOOOO you never know!!!
"My thinking on the jobs report is that a weak number could spook the market, but with the Fed on deck this coming Tuesday, a weak number would also put an interest rate cut back on the radar. There are many who believe we should get a cut based on the subprime lending and housing issues. A weak report would add fuel to that argument. On the other hand, an overly strong report will tell us the economy is still on track, but the rate cut would be less likely. Which way it goes, I don't know."
- Reaction score
- 2,474
Surprisingly, the AAII survey, which had been much more bearish than you'd expect during a big bull run as we had the first 6+ months of the year, has not turned overly bearish yet during this downturn.
Our sentiment survey here is very neutral but even the 1.10 to 1 ratio the week before is not at fear levels.
If we get continued failed rallies that lead to lower lows, it will eventually wear on the bulls and those surveys will get overly bearish. It just hasn't happened yet. Every time you hear someone (less sophisticted in the market) say they want to buy this dip (outside of for a short-term trade) we are that much further from a bottom. It's when no one wants to buy it when the bottom will come.
I am surprised the relief rally was so brief myself. They usually last a week or two and suck in more people.
Our sentiment survey here is very neutral but even the 1.10 to 1 ratio the week before is not at fear levels.
If we get continued failed rallies that lead to lower lows, it will eventually wear on the bulls and those surveys will get overly bearish. It just hasn't happened yet. Every time you hear someone (less sophisticted in the market) say they want to buy this dip (outside of for a short-term trade) we are that much further from a bottom. It's when no one wants to buy it when the bottom will come.
I am surprised the relief rally was so brief myself. They usually last a week or two and suck in more people.
- Status
