This Week in Stocks: 6/30 - 7/06/07

[Show-me]

From Briefing.com

The Week Ahead

Last Update: 29-Jun-07 12:45 ET

We are deviating a bit from our normal "Week Ahead" format due simply to the fact that there would be a lot of empty space on the page if we stuck by the regular format this week.
The Independence Day holiday is the reason for the change, as it has understandably caused the pushback of scheduled activity in the corporate world.
There aren't any investment conferences in the coming week and the earnings calendar is essentially empty.
San Francisco Fed President Yellen, meanwhile, is the only Fed official scheduled to give a speech. Yellen will be in Singapore on Friday to talk about the international dimension of risk as it relates to capital flows and asset prices.
The one area of interest during the week will be the economic front, which features the ISM Index, a report on national manufacturing activity, at the beginning of the week (July 2) and the June employment report at the end of the week (July 6).
Added detail on those reports, and other less influential ones, can be found via the links on our Economic Calendar page.
In observance of the Fourth of July holiday, the Bank of England will convene to discuss how England ever lost the Revolutionary War. We're kidding! The Bank of England, however, does start a two-day policy meeting on the fourth while the European Central Bank is scheduled to hold its policy meeting on the fifth.
The stock market will close early at 1:00 ET on Tuesday, July 3, and will remain closed on the Fourth of July. Trading will resume in its regular fashion on Thursday.

 

[Show-me]

Short week, July 3rd shortened trading day and July 4th Holiday.

First trading day in July Dow up 14 of last 17. But, 100+ point losses in 2002 and 2004.

July begins NASDAQ "worst four months".

 

[Show-me]

I'm seeing a early flight to the G fund. :worried:

 

[FundSurfer]

Food for thought: This week will likely be low volume. Many folks will be taking vacation this week to take advantage of the holiday. Low volume is when the Big Boyz like to play games. The news seems a bit Bearish to me - the UK terrorist, the falling dollar, last weeks stock market slide. This could bring out shorts... which would lead toward an early stock market dip. The big boyz may even help this along by selling some themselves. Then they turn it around and buy and trap some shorts.

How that for a conspiracy theory?

 

[Gilligan]

I'm seeing a early flight to the G fund. :worried:

I'm thinking about flying there myself, but this mornings gap up has me concerned that the market will fill in the gap and close in the red.

 

[tsptalk]

Food for thought: This week will likely be low volume. Many folks will be taking vacation this week to take advantage of the holiday. Low volume is when the Big Boyz like to play games. The news seems a bit Bearish to me - the UK terrorist, the falling dollar, last weeks stock market slide. This could bring out shorts... which would lead toward an early stock market dip. The big boyz may even help this along by selling some themselves. Then they turn it around and buy and trap some shorts.

How that for a conspiracy theory?

Looks like the boyz want it both ways. Jack up the prices before they dump??

I'm watching 1518 on the S&P. If we get above that, it is a good sign for the rest of the week. If we can't hit 1518 I'd expect a test of Friday's lows. Of course TA can probably be thrown out the window during a low volume holiday week.

Good luck!

 

[tsptalk]

I'm thinking about flying there myself, but this mornings gap up has me concerned that the market will fill in the gap and close in the red.

It's the 1st trading day of a new quarter. I think the money managers dumped their dogs last week and today are doing some shopping. I'd be really surprised if we turned around and closed red, although that sure has been the trend lately.

 

[weatherweenie]

I'm watching 1518 on the S&P. If we get above that, it is a good sign for the rest of the week. If we can't hit 1518 I'd expect a test of Friday's lows. Of course TA can probably be thrown out the window during a low volume holiday week.

Right at 1518 now.

 

[weatherweenie]

Right at 1518 now.

I gotta stop doin that.

Everytime I do, it drops. :laugh:

 

[Show-me]

Independence Day

FYI

U.S. stock markets will close at 1 p.m. ET and bond markets closing at 2 p.m. ET ahead of July 4. U.S. financial markets will be closed Wednesday.

Happy Independence Day!

 

[Gilligan]

It's the 1st trading day of a new quarter. I think the money managers dumped their dogs last week and today are doing some shopping. I'd be really surprised if we turned around and closed red, although that sure has been the trend lately.

Thank you for that good call yesterday Tom, I thought the markets might fill in that gap yesterday like they do so often.

 

[350zCommTech]

$VIX has not been working at stockcharts.com since yesterday. It just shows last Fridays' numbers. Anybody knows what's going on?

Thanks,

 

[tsptalk]

$VIX has not been working at stockcharts.com since yesterday. It just shows last Fridays' numbers. Anybody knows what's going on?

Thanks,

From stockcharts.com:

Tuesday, July 3rd - 10:00am Eastern: With the Canadian market open again, the data feed issue has returned. We are working with Thomson to continue adjusting how they send us data in an effort to workaround the bandwidth issue. Right now however, many intraday charts are missing today's data. Be sure to check your charts carefully. Check back here at least once-a-day for updates.
11:05am Eastern: Things are "better" now with most charts updating normally. There are still problems with the CBOE indices ($VIX, $TNX, etc.) as well as some thinly traded stocks. We hope to have those problems resolved shortly.

 

[350zCommTech]

From stockcharts.com:

Tuesday, July 3rd - 10:00am Eastern: With the Canadian market open again, the data feed issue has returned. We are working with Thomson to continue adjusting how they send us data in an effort to workaround the bandwidth issue. Right now however, many intraday charts are missing today's data. Be sure to check your charts carefully. Check back here at least once-a-day for updates.
11:05am Eastern: Things are "better" now with most charts updating normally. There are still problems with the CBOE indices ($VIX, $TNX, etc.) as well as some thinly traded stocks. We hope to have those problems resolved shortly.

Thanks Tom.

 

[Bullitt]

MACD may be making a reversal off the Zero line. Price momentum ready to breakthru the current trading channel after a small bear trap 6/27. Huge short interest to fuel a rally. I like the way it's shaping up to start a huge quarter.

 

[Show-me]

Bank of England raises rates

As expected.

Bank of England raises rates

Fifth increase of interest rates since August sends key figure to a six-year high of 5.75%.

July 5 2007: 7:10 AM EDT


LONDON (Reuters) -- The Bank of England raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point to a six-year high of 5.75 percent Thursday, the fifth increase since last August.
Most economists had predicted the rise as four members of the central bank's nine-strong Monetary Policy Committee, including Governor Mervyn King, had wanted to raise borrowing costs last month because of concerns about rising price pressures.

Markets have been pricing in further interest rate rises but some policymakers such as Deputy Governor Rachel Lomax have warned about the dangers of an overreaction as consumers' disposable incomes are already falling.
More than a million homeowners may soon face significantly higher mortgage payments as two-year fixed-rate deals, taken out in 2005 when borrowing costs were at 4.5 percent, come to an end.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/07/05/news/international/bc.britain.bank.rates.reut/index.htm

 

[Show-me]

Employers look to expand payrolls

Employers look to expand payrolls

Although hiring is expected to slow in the quarter, a survey shows more employers plan to hire than cut workers, newspaper reports.

July 5 2007: 7:14 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Most employers plan to hire applicants than fire employees, according a survey released Monday that suggests slower hiring but continued strength in the job market, USA Today reported.
More than a third of the managers said they would hire more employees, which was lower than the 41 percent polled in a previous survey, but only 5 percent said they would fire workers this quarter, according to an online survey conducted by USA Today and CareerBuilder.com.

Of the hiring managers polled, 52 percent said they expect the number of full-time workers to remain unchanged from July through September, and nearly half said they would increase pay, the paper reported.
"The survey suggests that the job market is holding up well despite the housing downturn and the slowing," in the broad economy, Mark Zandi, Moody's Economy.com chief economist, told the paper.
The survey was conducted within the first two weeks of June and involved 2,417 hiring managers and involved 2,417 hiring managers and human resource professionals, the paper said.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/07/05/news/economy/job_outlook/index.htm

 

[fedgolfer]

... so does this mean the unemployment econ data tomorrow will send stocks higher?

 

[350zCommTech]

... so does this mean the unemployment econ data tomorrow will send stocks higher?

It will send yields up for sure, which might scare the markets.

 

[Show-me]

Here is what Briefing.com said.

It's hard to tell how the thin, post-holiday market will react to the employment report.
Generally, payroll growth under 50K and a rise in the unemployment rate will strengthen expectations for a Fed easing in the not too distant future and provide a lift to the equity markets. Conversely, a gain stronger than 175K and a drop in the unemployment rate to March's 4.4% low will revive expectations that the Fed may not be finished with this tightening cycle.
Payroll growth, the unemployment rate and earnings growth all provide key insight for the path of consumer spending and economic growth. The equity market would like to see a report that is consistent with reduced inflation concerns as well moderate economic growth -- that is moderate payroll growth and a rise in the unemployment rate.