This Month in Stocks: 12/1 - 12/28/07

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Market Update

Weekly Recap - Week ending 14-Dec-07 After trading in volatile fashion, the major averages finished the week noticeably lower, as concerns about weakness in the financial sector and credit market turmoil continued to weigh on investor sentiment.

Stocks rose on Monday, as investors welcomed a strategic investment in Swiss banking giant UBS AG (UBS), and a report that bond insurer MBIA Inc. (MBI) will receive a $1 billion capital infusion from private equity firm Warburg Pincus, as signs of relief for the beleaguered financial sector.

The market continued to rally ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy-setting meeting on Tuesday; however, stocks ended the session lower as investors dismissed a quarter percentage point cut in the fed funds rate.

The Fed trimmed its key interest rate for the third consecutive time to 4.25%, and also lowered the discount rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%.

Investors were hoping for a larger rate cut and more aggressive action by the Federal Reserve amid mounting concerns that the liquidity strain in the financial markets could lead to larger problems for the economy.

Meanwhile, U.S. treasuries rallied on Tuesday as investors fled to safe-haven investments. The 10-year note gained more than one full point to yield 3.99% during the session.

On Wednesday, the market was caught by pleasant surprise when the Federal Reserve announced it is coordinating efforts with other central banks to add liquidity through a series of auctions of term funds and currency swap lines to help ease current credit market pressures.

Stocks surged in the early-going on the news, but steadily declined during the session to finish only modestly higher.

The Fed's efforts to increase short-term lending did little to boost shares in the financial sector, which remained under pressure after Bank of America (BAC) warned that its fourth quarter results would again disappoint and student lender SLM Corp. (SLM), also known as Sallie Mae, cut its full-year earnings forecast and said a group of investors led by J.C. Flowers no longer had any interest in buying the company.

The market closed mixed on Thursday with the tech-heavy Nasdaq posting a slight decline, as investors digested a mixed batch of economic data.

In a positive sign for the holiday shopping season, the Commerce Department reported retail sales rose 1.2% in November, well above analysts' expectations for a 0.6% increase.

Separately, however, the Labor Department said its producer price index jumped 3.2 % as gasoline prices surged to record levels. Excluding food and energy costs, core PPI was still up a larger than expected 0.4%, which fanned inflation concerns.

In corporate news, Dow component Honeywell International (HON) issued positive guidance for fiscal 2008, and investment bank Lehman Brothers (LEH) reported fourth quarter and year-end results that were much better than expected in spite of ongoing credit market issues.

Stocks were undercut on Friday, though, due to a rise in consumer inflation and more bad news in the financial sector.

The Labor Department said its consumer price index rose 0.8% in November, due in part to a jump in gasoline prices, raising further questions about the direction of the economy. Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI was up 0.3%. That was above the expected 0.2% increase, and reflects the inflationary pressures noted in the most recent Fed policy statement that may have been a factor in holding the Fed back from cutting rates even more.

On the corporate front, financial giant Citigroup (C) announced plans to consolidate $49 billion worth of assets from several of its structured investment vehicles, or SIVs, that have been hurt by the meltdown in sub-prime lending and tighter credit markets.

Also, Dow component United Technologies (UTX) reaffirmed its full-year outlook and offered a mixed forecast for next year. Power tool maker Black & Decker Corp. (BDK) lowered its fourth quarter earnings target due to a recall of some portable drills and continued challenging business conditions in North America, stemming from the fallout in the housing and credit markets.
--Richard Jahnke, Briefing.com

http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/update
 
http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...vestor&ArticleId=NS20071214120440LookingAhead

The Week Ahead

Last Update: 14-Dec-07 12:03 ET

The Christmas holiday is approaching, but the coming week will continue to be business as usual for Wall Street.

Both the earnings calendar and economic calendar will be a focal point as each features some key reports.

With respect to earnings, investment banks Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), and Bear Stearns (BSC) will report their results, as will other well-known companies such as Best Buy (BBY), Nike (NKE), General Mills (GIS), Oracle (ORCL), FedEx (FDX), Darden Restaurants (DRI), Circuit City (CC) and Walgreen (WAG).

A complete list of companies scheduled to announce their results can be previewed on Briefing.com's Earnings Calendar.

Similarly, our Economic Calendar provides the complete lineup of economic reports. The Housing Starts and Personal Income and Spending reports for November are the top economic items for the week.
________________________________________________________________
Monday, December 17:
  • Earnings: Adobe Systems (ADBE)
  • Economic Data: December New York Empire State Index, October Net Foreign Purchases
  • Events: Spartan Motors Analyst Meeting, CA Analyst Meeting
  • Conferences: No conferences are scheduled at this time
  • Fed Speakers: None
Tuesday, December 18:
  • Earnings: Best Buy (BBY), Goldman Sachs (GS), Darden Restaurants (DRI), Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV), Take-Two (TTWO), Palm (PALM)
  • Economic Data: November Housing Starts, November Building Permits
  • Events: Choice Hotels Analyst Meeting, Alpharma Analyst Meeting
  • Conferences: No conferences are scheduled at this time
  • Fed Speakers: Fed Governors are scheduled to hold an open meeting regarding mortgage rules (10:00 AM ET)
Wednesday, December 19:
  • Earnings: CarMax(KMX), General Mills (GIS), Morgan Stanley (MS), Accenture (ACN), Herman Miller (MLHR), Nike (NKE), Oracle (ORCL), Paychex (PAYX), Steelcase (SCS)
  • Economic Data: Weekly Crude Inventory supplies (week ending Dec. 14)
  • Events: UST Inc. Analyst Meeting
  • Conferences: No conferences are scheduled at this time
  • Fed Speakers: Richmond Fed President Lacker discusses the economic outlook in North Carolina (1:00 PM ET)
Thursday, December 20:
  • Earnings: American Greetings (AM), Bear Stearns (BSC), Cintas (CTAS), ConAgra (CAG), Discover Financial Services (DFS), FedEx (FDX), Pier 1 Imports (PIR), Rite Aid (RAD), Winnebago (WGO), Worthington (WOR), Cognos (COGN), Jabil Circuit (JBL), Micron (MU), Research In Motion (RIMM)
  • Economic Data: Final Third Quarter GDP Calculation and Chain Deflator, Initial Jobless Claims (week ending Dec. 15), November Leading Indicators, December Philadelphia Fed Index
  • Events: None
  • Conferences: No conferences are scheduled at this time
  • Fed Speakers: None
Friday, December 21:
  • Earnings: Circuit City(CC), Walgreen (WAG)
  • Economic Data: November Personal Income and Spending, November Core PCE Inflation, Revised December Consumer Sentiment Survey from University of Michigan
  • Events: None
  • Conferences: No conferences are scheduled at this time
  • Fed Speakers: None
--Jeffrey Ham, Briefing.com
 
If the Fed were completely attuned to the deflationary risks the economy is facing, it would be cutting rates far more aggressively. I believe they'll do another discount cut before their next meeting on Jan. 30.
 
The Fed is scheduled Monday to offer $20 billion in 28-day credit through an auction, and bids will be accepted between 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. EST. The aim of the auction is to spur commercial banks to borrow from the central bank, and in turn, encourage increased lending on the part of the banks to businesses and consumers.

A speech Sunday night by former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan likely added to the market's ill humor. Greenspan said that "stagflation" -- simultaneous inflation and economic slowdown -- is a possibility, given last week's data showing spiking consumer prices.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071217/wall_street.html
 
Pump that money into the market.

Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Money market rates tumbled after the European Central Bank injected an unprecedented $500 billion into the banking system as part of a global effort to ease gridlock in the credit market.
The amount banks charge each other for two-week loans in euros dropped a record 50 basis points to 4.45 percent, after climbing 83 basis points in the past two weeks, the European Banking Federation said today.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abY98bxmZTOU&refer=home
 
What does everyone expect mortgage rates to do in the weeks to come. They've inched higher over the last two weeks. But, with the economy "slowing" will they head back down?
 
What does everyone expect mortgage rates to do in the weeks to come. They've inched higher over the last two weeks. But, with the economy "slowing" will they head back down?

Yes, they will head lower. How much lower? I don't know. The 10yr and the 30 yr yields are used to set mortgage rates. During the last recession, the 30 yr went as low as 4.2%. Today, it closed at 4.54%. In 2003-4, the lowest 30 yr fix (no points) was at 4.95%.

Here are two symbols you can use in Yahoo.com to monitor yields:

^TNX
^TYX
 
AP
Morgan Stanley Post Loss on 4Q Writedown
Wednesday December 19, 7:55 am ET Morgan Stanley Loses $5.8B After $9.4 Billion 4Q Writedown, Gets $5B Investment From China
NEW YORK (AP) -- Morgan Stanley, the No. 2 U.S. investment bank, on Wednesday reported a larger-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter loss due to a $9.4 billion writedown from its exposure to subprime and other mortgage-related investments.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071219/earns_morgan_stanley.html
 
AP
US Foreclosure Filings Up 68 Pct in Nov.
Wednesday December 19, 6:55 am ET
By Alex Veiga, AP Business Writer US Foreclosure Filings Up 68 Percent in November Over Same Month Last Year

LOS ANGELES (AP) -- U.S. homeowners increasingly failed to keep up with their home loan payments in November, as the number of foreclosure filings surged 68 percent nationwide compared with the same month a year ago, according to a mortgage research company.

In all, 201,950 foreclosure filings were reported last month, compared with 120,334 in November 2006, Irvine-based RealtyTrac Inc. said Wednesday.
Last month's filings fell 10 percent from October's 224,451.

The last time there was a sequential drop in foreclosure filings was between August and September, when they fell 8 percent.

"It's a little bit of good news in the otherwise murky real estate market right now," said Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac's vice president of marketing. "The fact that we're seeing a 10 percent decrease is significant. It's a good thing." The U.S. had one foreclosure filing for every 617 households in November, RealtyTrac said.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071219/foreclosure_rates.html
 
Morgan Stanley missed big. Expected was -.39 and actual was -3.61 and that will leave a mark.:nuts::laugh:
 
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