Thinking of putting everything in the G

[Rolo]

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Frizz B. wrote:

Rolo, Thanks for the compliment, I think.

hehe...Yes, you're worthy of an acronym!



tsptalk wrote:

One thing, and this kind of started this whole discussion, sometimes when the market is overbought and stretching the limits of that indicator (as we are seeing now) we can still have big moves upward.

A Voyager probe sling-shot comes to mind. Would this event also mark where a resistance line becomes a support line?



tsptalk wrote:

Also, the ob/os indicator can come down from high toa more normal level while the market isflat or only slightly down for a few days. It doesn't necessarily mean the market is going to pullback.

Ah, like a few tiny black days after a run-up? Flags and pennants come to mind, too, as well asthe handle portion of a base.

 

[azanon]

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Since theC and S both closed high,I am thinking of moving to the G this evening (5/28/04) when will it be effective (Monday is a Holiday)? Anyone else thinkthe market willtake a downward turn soon?

Short-term (meaning market timing short) perhaps, but I dont care. I can sort of make sense out of monthy timers, give or take, but this daily jumping around I think will just produce frustration. Of all the timing models ive seen, the wisest ones seem to be those that reassess the markets about once a month or so, then reevaluate the 1-year outlook. I am glad Tom is also doing that for us, and that is the one i'm following. I wouldnt be shocked at all if his 1-year timer beats his day-to-day jumping around . (currently 35%C, 35%S, 30%I, for aggressive).

In the mid-term (1 year), i think stocks will be strong from here on out, particularly mid and large cap growth. Too bad we dont have one of those for TSP, but all my Roths are mid/large cap growth atm.

 

[puertorico]

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[Mondays most of the time are down ].

[Fridays most of the time are up] .

It's the true ? :?

 

[tsptalk]

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puertorico wrote:

[Mondays most of the time are down].

[Fridays most of the time are up] .

It's the true ? :?

From 1950 to 2202, Monday's werethe worst performing day but it actually had a positive average return when the S&P 500 was trading above its 220 day moving average (which it is now).

Fridays and Wednesdays are close as the top performing days of the week.

 

[puertorico]

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Thank Toms for the numbers

I was checking my numbers and there not a big difference in this year.

-Fridays-C-fund-----{january to may}

10-up

8-down

2-flat

-Mondays-C-fund------{january to may}

10-up

10-down

1-flat

 

[puertorico]

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References

October is the cruelest month for the U.S.stock market

In 1929 october 29 the market collapse

---12.8% $14 billion

....In October 19, 1987 !crash !

---22.6% $500 billion

For reference *octoberand september worst down*

I'm doing my home-work...

 

[tsptalk]

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S&P 500 on Tuesdayafter Memorial Day...

2003 - Up 1.9%
2002 - Down .85%
2001 - Down .78%
2000 - Up 3.2%
1999 - Down .58%
1998 - Down 1.5%

Seems to be down more often but the up days were big. We are so due for a pullback but I have a feeling if we can get through the weekend without a major catastrophe, we may have a good Tuesday. Then it may be time to protect a little of the account.

 

[Rolo]

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[align=right]"October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February."[/align]

[align=right]-Mark Twain[/align]

[align=left][/align]

[align=left]I've noticed periods where Mondays seemed habitually down/Fridays up and the reverse, Mondays up/Fridays down. I thought I read somewhere where they were indicative of the type of market, i.e. Bull/Bear respectively. I do not know if there is any validity to that, but I had noticed it on occasion.[/align]

 

[puertorico]

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Tom I'm not feel to positive becouse last week there was twices "big up".

But I hope rally

I'm in the bote too TAKING CHANCES:?



tHE best holidays

after Thankgiving almost always- up {15 to 1}

after Christmas most of the time up about{12 to 5}

 

[puertorico]

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more references

big rallys of this year

1-January 5 Monday {134}

2-January 26 Monday {134}

3-March 25 thursday {171}

4-April 22 thursday {144}

5-may 25 Tuesday {159}was the 2nd big rally of the year

 

[puertorico]

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numbers for S and I

FRIDAYS "this year"

S-13 up------8 down

I-11 UP--------10 down

-------------------------------

MONDAYS"this year"

S-13 up-------8 down

I-12 up---------9 down