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Thinking of putting everything in the G
- Thread starter fant16
- Start date
imported post
The Thrift Savings Plan is closed on Monday, May 31, 2004 for Memorial Day. Therefore, share prices will not be updated and transactions will not be processed until the following business day.
[line]
I think it may pull back a little to digest a few gains, but not a downward turn. I am betting the indexeswill resume thier prior high course. I hope so...I have three stocks ready to break out. (SCSS, WBSN, RHAT...heh, canya tell I'm an IT guy?)
On what do I base that? I don't know, but it is something a little more advanced than tea leaves.
The Thrift Savings Plan is closed on Monday, May 31, 2004 for Memorial Day. Therefore, share prices will not be updated and transactions will not be processed until the following business day.
[line]
I think it may pull back a little to digest a few gains, but not a downward turn. I am betting the indexeswill resume thier prior high course. I hope so...I have three stocks ready to break out. (SCSS, WBSN, RHAT...heh, canya tell I'm an IT guy?)
On what do I base that? I don't know, but it is something a little more advanced than tea leaves.
imported post
Welcome, fant16!
Rolo, you've got me curious.... I'm off to find out what your stock picks are.... are these the picks from USAA? I'll have to check out USAA too. I use quicken to track our spending.... aren't you the one who puts TSP in quicken and if so do you have any tips?
Welcome, fant16!
Rolo, you've got me curious.... I'm off to find out what your stock picks are.... are these the picks from USAA? I'll have to check out USAA too. I use quicken to track our spending.... aren't you the one who puts TSP in quicken and if so do you have any tips?
imported post
Oh, yeah, welcome, fant16!
thinks wrote:
Quicken is always open on my machine here, I have everything into it. I also have my Quicken database regularly backed up onto my server. Definitely have your files automatically backup to another disk, or another machine if possible.
Completely ignore the "Net Worth" figure at the bottom, hehe.
(another topic on here, if you haven't seen it)
I like using the stock research tools in Quicken, the web pages to guage a company's health before I buy.
[line]
I didn't know USAA had stock picks, I'll have to look at that. I only put mutual funds into my IRA accounts, which I have with USAA, so I never looked at them for stocks, after seeing how high their fees are. Save for USAGX, I do not care for any of their funds, they are mediocre at best.
I honestly do not like dealing with them, but they have a pretty good selection of NTF funds, and I can get some funds through them that I cannot get through Scottrade.
WBSN(WebSense) isa product with which I am familiar. I resold it to a client after researching enterprise-level content filtering software. They are the leader in the field and have secured several patents. I had to buy their stock. I've traded in and out of it several times, usually right before major moves. I honestly do not know how I did that. It's a good stock to hold for a while, too, perhaps even years. (I generally only think 3-6 months ahead.)
I read about SCSS (Select Comfort) in Barron's and know two people who bought those beds and they love them. I've traded in and out of it as well. I bought it again on the news that they will be supplying beds to a hotel chain.
I have always believed RHAT (RedHat) will be the leader in supporting/distributing Linux operating systems. As a network engineer, I like it and getting it to replace Windows Server was pretty easy. It made a better Windows Server than Windows did. As a reseller, I like the larger profit-margin
and my clients like the lesser cost. The only thing Linux needs now for the coup-detat is an Exchange-killer. SuSE is the only other major distributor and they primarily sell to Europe.
I read about SIRI and XMSR in Barron's almost a year ago. I hold both, kept SIRI, traded in and out of XMSR. Satellite Radio will go the route cable television did. I intend to hold SIRI for a long time, possibly XMSR, contingent upon earnings.
I bought VLCCF for the dividend yield (check it out, 40% right now). I heard about it on ptcrew.com, hehe
Mutual funds right now: MATFX, REYFX (thinking about ditching it, we'll see how the recovery goes), RIAFX (I love tech...but I keep an eye on it), RSPFX (was supposed to soften the blow, but didn't), DRBNX (I think biotech will pick up again), and SCOVX. I try to stick with top 10% within the fund's category (Quicken lists that).
One fund I really wanted was JAMFX, but I cannot get to it.
Oh, yeah, welcome, fant16!
thinks wrote:
Yes, I put TSP share prices into Quicken pretty much every day, but only for C, S, and I funds. I can export them if anyone wants them.
Quicken is always open on my machine here, I have everything into it. I also have my Quicken database regularly backed up onto my server. Definitely have your files automatically backup to another disk, or another machine if possible.
Completely ignore the "Net Worth" figure at the bottom, hehe.
(another topic on here, if you haven't seen it)I like using the stock research tools in Quicken, the web pages to guage a company's health before I buy.
[line]
I didn't know USAA had stock picks, I'll have to look at that. I only put mutual funds into my IRA accounts, which I have with USAA, so I never looked at them for stocks, after seeing how high their fees are. Save for USAGX, I do not care for any of their funds, they are mediocre at best.
I honestly do not like dealing with them, but they have a pretty good selection of NTF funds, and I can get some funds through them that I cannot get through Scottrade.
WBSN(WebSense) isa product with which I am familiar. I resold it to a client after researching enterprise-level content filtering software. They are the leader in the field and have secured several patents. I had to buy their stock. I've traded in and out of it several times, usually right before major moves. I honestly do not know how I did that. It's a good stock to hold for a while, too, perhaps even years. (I generally only think 3-6 months ahead.)
I read about SCSS (Select Comfort) in Barron's and know two people who bought those beds and they love them. I've traded in and out of it as well. I bought it again on the news that they will be supplying beds to a hotel chain.
I have always believed RHAT (RedHat) will be the leader in supporting/distributing Linux operating systems. As a network engineer, I like it and getting it to replace Windows Server was pretty easy. It made a better Windows Server than Windows did. As a reseller, I like the larger profit-margin
and my clients like the lesser cost. The only thing Linux needs now for the coup-detat is an Exchange-killer. SuSE is the only other major distributor and they primarily sell to Europe.I read about SIRI and XMSR in Barron's almost a year ago. I hold both, kept SIRI, traded in and out of XMSR. Satellite Radio will go the route cable television did. I intend to hold SIRI for a long time, possibly XMSR, contingent upon earnings.
I bought VLCCF for the dividend yield (check it out, 40% right now). I heard about it on ptcrew.com, hehe
Mutual funds right now: MATFX, REYFX (thinking about ditching it, we'll see how the recovery goes), RIAFX (I love tech...but I keep an eye on it), RSPFX (was supposed to soften the blow, but didn't), DRBNX (I think biotech will pick up again), and SCOVX. I try to stick with top 10% within the fund's category (Quicken lists that).
One fund I really wanted was JAMFX, but I cannot get to it.
imported post
Yeah, I did not put much time into tweaking my TSP until I discovered TSPTalk. We'll have to treat Tom to a five-star dinner and deduct it as a business expense, since it will be a convention and all, hehe.
Oh yeah, VLCCF is Knightsbridge Tankers, or Very Large Crude Carrier Fleet. I like the way that sounds, it has a"Whooooooh!" factor.
Yeah, I did not put much time into tweaking my TSP until I discovered TSPTalk. We'll have to treat Tom to a five-star dinner and deduct it as a business expense, since it will be a convention and all, hehe.
Oh yeah, VLCCF is Knightsbridge Tankers, or Very Large Crude Carrier Fleet. I like the way that sounds, it has a"Whooooooh!" factor.
puertorico
Member
imported post
Welcome fant16:^
From Tuesday I will begin to put a least 60% in G-FUND
and play wich 40% around stock only.And keep taking
10% out until get 100% G.
Nobody want to buy top,"too risky"sell high?buy low !
I learn a lesson two week ago.
Have been a big week .That put me in shape waiting
for another round buying low.
That just my game plan.
Welcome fant16:^
From Tuesday I will begin to put a least 60% in G-FUND
and play wich 40% around stock only.And keep taking
10% out until get 100% G.
Nobody want to buy top,"too risky"sell high?buy low !
I learn a lesson two week ago.
Have been a big week .That put me in shape waiting
for another round buying low.
That just my game plan.
puertorico
Member
imported post
After a big week I can handler 40%stock winning just a little big more is ok
but no handler a big down 100%stock in the top.
Tom said one time ago...something like this ....
-------------------------------------------------
When u go down 50%, take 100% up to
get where u were before.
--------------------------------------------------
Just taking a little caution even the firstdays of the
month, most of the time look good.
After a big week I can handler 40%stock winning just a little big more is ok
but no handler a big down 100%stock in the top.
Tom said one time ago...something like this ....
-------------------------------------------------
When u go down 50%, take 100% up to
get where u were before.
--------------------------------------------------
Just taking a little caution even the firstdays of the
month, most of the time look good.
imported post
Many of you weren't with me in January. Right after Xmas I started to see the signs of the marketbeing very overbought and I hid in the G fund. Three or four weeks later the market about topped. That killed me. I had just started the site and the market was taking off without me on a daily basis. Of course every rally had me more bearish and I would say so in the comments. At one time I think the C and S funds were 4 to 6% ahead of my return.
It has been an uphill battle and I could have played a lot of things better, but I scratched my way back to some respectability with the return. (http://www.tsptalk.com/returns/returns.html)
My point is, even if the market is overbought, sometimes you have to wait for the signs of weakness before you get out because you could miss the boat. And even more now that the indicators for the intermediate term are positive. They were getting negative in January.
If you are moving 100% out and in, just be quick and react to the market. If you are wrong, adjust quickly. My indicators help tremendously but sometimes I have to let the daily market activity tell me what is going on.
Many of you weren't with me in January. Right after Xmas I started to see the signs of the marketbeing very overbought and I hid in the G fund. Three or four weeks later the market about topped. That killed me. I had just started the site and the market was taking off without me on a daily basis. Of course every rally had me more bearish and I would say so in the comments. At one time I think the C and S funds were 4 to 6% ahead of my return.
It has been an uphill battle and I could have played a lot of things better, but I scratched my way back to some respectability with the return. (http://www.tsptalk.com/returns/returns.html)
My point is, even if the market is overbought, sometimes you have to wait for the signs of weakness before you get out because you could miss the boat. And even more now that the indicators for the intermediate term are positive. They were getting negative in January.
If you are moving 100% out and in, just be quick and react to the market. If you are wrong, adjust quickly. My indicators help tremendously but sometimes I have to let the daily market activity tell me what is going on.
puertorico
Member
imported post
Here is something basic baby step I find around finance yahoo
. Preserve your capital.
This is perhaps the most important rule. Managing your losses and waiting for the right opportunity to enter trades are critical: A 50% drawdown requires a 100% gain just to get back to break-even. The easiest way to preserve your capital is by keeping your losses small, patiently
. Never let a profit turn into a loss.
Profits are hard enough to come by, so letting one slip away and -- even worse -- turn into a loss, is a sin. One way to avoid this is with a trailing stop, which is a stop order that is entered at some fixed percentage below the market price (for a long position). If the stock moves higher, the stop order moves up, or "trails," proportionately. However, the stop price doesn't move lower if the stock does, essentially putting a floor on where you'll sell the stock without limiting your upside.
Once you have a substantial gain, place a stop just at or slightly above your buy point.
. Take big gains and small losses.
"The whole secret to winning big in the stock market is not to be right all the time, but to lose the least amount possible when you're wrong." I limit losses to 7%, and I take some gains when I am up 20% to 25% on a position. Different percentages may work better for you, but control your losses and lock in substantial gains.
note:
I post all this basic rule not becouse the market
going down but just to limit the losses after big gain
is a win-win situation becouse do not let winning
becoming losses. Just caution my-self wich the basic rules.
Unemployment report friday june 4.
Here is something basic baby step I find around finance yahoo
. Preserve your capital.
This is perhaps the most important rule. Managing your losses and waiting for the right opportunity to enter trades are critical: A 50% drawdown requires a 100% gain just to get back to break-even. The easiest way to preserve your capital is by keeping your losses small, patiently
. Never let a profit turn into a loss.
Profits are hard enough to come by, so letting one slip away and -- even worse -- turn into a loss, is a sin. One way to avoid this is with a trailing stop, which is a stop order that is entered at some fixed percentage below the market price (for a long position). If the stock moves higher, the stop order moves up, or "trails," proportionately. However, the stop price doesn't move lower if the stock does, essentially putting a floor on where you'll sell the stock without limiting your upside.
Once you have a substantial gain, place a stop just at or slightly above your buy point.
. Take big gains and small losses.
"The whole secret to winning big in the stock market is not to be right all the time, but to lose the least amount possible when you're wrong." I limit losses to 7%, and I take some gains when I am up 20% to 25% on a position. Different percentages may work better for you, but control your losses and lock in substantial gains.
note:
I post all this basic rule not becouse the market
going down but just to limit the losses after big gain
is a win-win situation becouse do not let winning
becoming losses. Just caution my-self wich the basic rules.
Unemployment report friday june 4.
imported post
puertorico wrote:
Yet, for whatever reason, I just had to go through it myself and really lock in the knowledge the hard way. :'
Thanks for posting that necessary reminder. Placing floors on the way up is a good idea. It is nota bad idea for mutual funds, either.
I do not actually place stop loss orders, and Bill O'Neill will also tell you that. It tips your hand and you could inadvertantly sell your equitiy during a shakeout. Set e-mail/cell phone notifications near your stop loss price instead.
I had to learn that the hard way too when one of my stocks sold on astop loss during an intra-day dip. Then it went up quite a bit. That was my second or third trade ever, so I was a little too protective of my capital, hehe.
I do place stop limit orders at my target selling price soon after buying to catchlarge spikes upward or if the stock moves more quickly than anticipated. I also have e-mail alerts for when a stock moves 5% or more in one day, up or down.
puertorico wrote:
Y'know, I know that (academically) so well that I can tell you that Bill O'Neil wrote that in How to Make Money in Stocks, the first book on stocks I ever read. I even subscribe to his IBD!
Yet, for whatever reason, I just had to go through it myself and really lock in the knowledge the hard way. :'
Thanks for posting that necessary reminder. Placing floors on the way up is a good idea. It is nota bad idea for mutual funds, either.
I do not actually place stop loss orders, and Bill O'Neill will also tell you that. It tips your hand and you could inadvertantly sell your equitiy during a shakeout. Set e-mail/cell phone notifications near your stop loss price instead.
I had to learn that the hard way too when one of my stocks sold on astop loss during an intra-day dip. Then it went up quite a bit. That was my second or third trade ever, so I was a little too protective of my capital, hehe.
I do place stop limit orders at my target selling price soon after buying to catchlarge spikes upward or if the stock moves more quickly than anticipated. I also have e-mail alerts for when a stock moves 5% or more in one day, up or down.
imported post
Rolo wrote:
OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD
The term OVERBOUGHT means that the market has run out of buyers and OVERSOLD means that the market has run out of sellers. Users of these terms perceive that the market (stock, commodity, etc.) has reached an extreme limit in one direction or the other and that a retracement or consolidation is likely to take place.
The related terms of OVERVALUED and UNDERVALUED refer to market valuations. OVERVALUED means that the market is demanding too much of a premium to fair value. UNDERVALUED means that the stock (market, commodity, etc.) is selling at a discount to fair value.
[font="arial, helvetica"]McCLELLAN OSCILLATOR
The exact calculation of the McClellan Oscillator is covered below, but it is basically the result of subtracting a 0.05 exponential average (40-day moving average) of advances minus declines from the 0.10 exponential average (20-day moving average).[/font]
[font="arial, helvetica"]The McClellan Oscillator is an intermediate-term indicator, but it can also be used for short-term timing when it bottoms in oversold territory -- in the area of -100 and below. When the McClellan Oscillator moves below the Zero Line a SELL Signal is rendered, and a BUY Signal results when it moves above zero; however, these are general guide lines not hard rules guaranteed to result in profitable trading.[/font]
[font="arial, helvetica"]A "typical" McClellan Oscillator pattern series consists of consecutive formation of a Complex Bottom, a Middle Spike, and a Buy Spike. The typical Complex Bottom is a bowl-shaped series of oscillations below the Zero Line while the market is declining. This is followed by a move above well above zero which begins the formation of the Middle Spike -- a stalactite between the move above zero and the move back below zero. The Middle Spike signals the beginning of an intermediate-term up move, but it is usually followed by another down move, possibly to lower lows. After the down leg of the Middle Spike has concluded, we can expect a Buy Spike, which as the name implies signals a new up trend in the market. Buy Spikes are normally formed in oversold territory (-80 and below), but rising series of Buy Spikes is also a possibility.[/font]
[font="arial, helvetica"]While this is a typical series of chart formations that will help us identify changes in market direction and determine current market status, unfortunately, they may not appear in the specified order . . . or at all.[/font]
Rolo wrote:
They are indicators I follow on [url]http://www.decisionpoint.com[/url] (pay site). With their permission, I post these charts on the site from time to time. People smarterthanme figure out the numbers and put them on a chart for me to read. Here is their explaination of the overbought/oversold indicator and the McClellen Oscillator.
OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD
The term OVERBOUGHT means that the market has run out of buyers and OVERSOLD means that the market has run out of sellers. Users of these terms perceive that the market (stock, commodity, etc.) has reached an extreme limit in one direction or the other and that a retracement or consolidation is likely to take place.
The related terms of OVERVALUED and UNDERVALUED refer to market valuations. OVERVALUED means that the market is demanding too much of a premium to fair value. UNDERVALUED means that the stock (market, commodity, etc.) is selling at a discount to fair value.
[font="arial, helvetica"]McCLELLAN OSCILLATOR
The exact calculation of the McClellan Oscillator is covered below, but it is basically the result of subtracting a 0.05 exponential average (40-day moving average) of advances minus declines from the 0.10 exponential average (20-day moving average).[/font]
[font="arial, helvetica"]The McClellan Oscillator is an intermediate-term indicator, but it can also be used for short-term timing when it bottoms in oversold territory -- in the area of -100 and below. When the McClellan Oscillator moves below the Zero Line a SELL Signal is rendered, and a BUY Signal results when it moves above zero; however, these are general guide lines not hard rules guaranteed to result in profitable trading.[/font]
[font="arial, helvetica"]A "typical" McClellan Oscillator pattern series consists of consecutive formation of a Complex Bottom, a Middle Spike, and a Buy Spike. The typical Complex Bottom is a bowl-shaped series of oscillations below the Zero Line while the market is declining. This is followed by a move above well above zero which begins the formation of the Middle Spike -- a stalactite between the move above zero and the move back below zero. The Middle Spike signals the beginning of an intermediate-term up move, but it is usually followed by another down move, possibly to lower lows. After the down leg of the Middle Spike has concluded, we can expect a Buy Spike, which as the name implies signals a new up trend in the market. Buy Spikes are normally formed in oversold territory (-80 and below), but rising series of Buy Spikes is also a possibility.[/font]
[font="arial, helvetica"]While this is a typical series of chart formations that will help us identify changes in market direction and determine current market status, unfortunately, they may not appear in the specified order . . . or at all.[/font]
imported post
Ah! I see, thanks. I kept thinking "overbought" meant "all-kinda-people-are-buyin'" and it was a good thing, but it is the signal of the end of that good thing.
Overbought = diminished demand = prices drop; Oversold = high demand = premium pricing
From investopedia:
A market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. It is primarily used for short and intermediate term trading.
To calculate subtract a 39 day EMA (of advancing issues - declining issues) from a 19 day EMA (of advancing issues - declining issues).
Simplified, it looks as follows: (19 Day EMA of Advances - Declines) - (39 Day EMA of Advances - Declines)
Usually, a small number of stocks making large gains characterizes a weakening bull market. This gives the perception that the overall market is healthy, but in reality it isn't, as rising prices are being driven by a small number of stocks. Conversely, when a bear market is still declining, but a smaller amount of stocks are declining, an end to the bear market may be near.
hmmmm...I wonder if that is what I have been seeing when I see a small number of strong companies making big advances when the market appears to be churning; I would interpret that as a leading indicator of an impendingoverall market advance. Perhaps I have that backwards. Perhaps both apply in certain conditions. AAAAAGH! heh. Thoughts?
Ah! I see, thanks. I kept thinking "overbought" meant "all-kinda-people-are-buyin'" and it was a good thing, but it is the signal of the end of that good thing.
Overbought = diminished demand = prices drop; Oversold = high demand = premium pricing
From investopedia:
A market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. It is primarily used for short and intermediate term trading.
To calculate subtract a 39 day EMA (of advancing issues - declining issues) from a 19 day EMA (of advancing issues - declining issues).
Simplified, it looks as follows: (19 Day EMA of Advances - Declines) - (39 Day EMA of Advances - Declines)
Usually, a small number of stocks making large gains characterizes a weakening bull market. This gives the perception that the overall market is healthy, but in reality it isn't, as rising prices are being driven by a small number of stocks. Conversely, when a bear market is still declining, but a smaller amount of stocks are declining, an end to the bear market may be near.
imported post
[align=left]Market Breadth[/align]
[align=left]A technical analysis theory that predicts the strength of the market according to the number of stocks that advance or decline in a particular trading day.[/align]
[align=left]The breadth of market indicator is used to gauge the number of stocks advancing and declining for the day. If the breadth indicator is strong, this theory predicts that the market will be rising and vice versa.
[/align]
[align=left]Advance/Decline Line[/align]
[align=left]A technical analysis tool representing the total of differences between advances and declines of security prices. The advance/decline line is considered the best indicator of market movement as a whole. Stock indexes such as the DJIA only tell us the strength of 30 stocks where as the A/D line provides much more insight. [/align]
[align=left]If the markets are up but there are more declining stocks than advancing ones it's usually a sign that the markets are losing their breadth. If the number of advancing issues are dominating the declining issues and the market is then said to be healthy. If it is falling, then the market is not healthy.
[/align][align=left]Ah! The MCO considers this to determine market tops/bottoms/reversals.[/align]
[align=left][/align]
[align=left]If I understand the similarities, we have a "FrizzB Oscillator (FBO)"[/align]
[align=left]Market Breadth[/align]
[align=left]A technical analysis theory that predicts the strength of the market according to the number of stocks that advance or decline in a particular trading day.[/align]
[align=left]The breadth of market indicator is used to gauge the number of stocks advancing and declining for the day. If the breadth indicator is strong, this theory predicts that the market will be rising and vice versa.
[/align]
[align=left]Advance/Decline Line[/align]
[align=left]A technical analysis tool representing the total of differences between advances and declines of security prices. The advance/decline line is considered the best indicator of market movement as a whole. Stock indexes such as the DJIA only tell us the strength of 30 stocks where as the A/D line provides much more insight. [/align]
[align=left]If the markets are up but there are more declining stocks than advancing ones it's usually a sign that the markets are losing their breadth. If the number of advancing issues are dominating the declining issues and the market is then said to be healthy. If it is falling, then the market is not healthy.
[/align]
[align=left][/align]
[align=left]If I understand the similarities, we have a "FrizzB Oscillator (FBO)"
[/align]
imported post
[align=left]
One thing, and this kind of started this whole discussion, sometimes when the market is overbought and stretching the limits of that indicator (as we are seeing now) we can still have big moves upward. Also, the ob/os indicator can come down from high toa more normal level while the market isflat or only slightly down for a few days. It doesn't necessarily mean the market is going to pullback. [/align]
[align=left][/align]
[align=left]So it's a great tool for trying to pick tops and bottoms in the market but you risk potentialbig moves in the direction of the indicator (Big rallies even though the indicator is overbought). That catches me off guard a lot. That is why I was saying I wanted to see a sign of weakness here before I hide some money in the G fund. Let's see how strong this market is first.[/align]
[align=left]
Exactly!
One thing, and this kind of started this whole discussion, sometimes when the market is overbought and stretching the limits of that indicator (as we are seeing now) we can still have big moves upward. Also, the ob/os indicator can come down from high toa more normal level while the market isflat or only slightly down for a few days. It doesn't necessarily mean the market is going to pullback. [/align]
[align=left][/align]
[align=left]So it's a great tool for trying to pick tops and bottoms in the market but you risk potentialbig moves in the direction of the indicator (Big rallies even though the indicator is overbought). That catches me off guard a lot. That is why I was saying I wanted to see a sign of weakness here before I hide some money in the G fund. Let's see how strong this market is first.[/align]
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