The Tracker and Paid Services

[SkyPilot]

[FONT=&quot]Actually, I think the various offerings on the site are complementary.

EbbTracker is not the first paid service on the site, and it may not be the last. The EbbTracker never provided information, only predictions. The site is about information, so the EbbTracker never contributed to that process in a significant way. Even Ebb himself is not a cult follower, as he deviates himself (at his own expense it seems).

The reports of the death of this site are greatly exaggerated.

We have only gone from a polemic debate about the Doctrine of the EbbTracker, and have now moved to the Theology of it. Soon it will move to the Escatology of EbbTracker while those who subscribe are mostly interested in the Soteriological aspects.

Cheer up! This is still the best place to "learn and churn"... the free ride is over. If you want to play, then you must pay...
[/FONT]

 

[EW_ret]

How true that statement rings. It is difficult to have paid TSP services and still have successful free content. Once you have a popular paid service everybody wants it and can't keep their mouth shut. So we spend time policing those who are engaging the mouth before the brain.

I will remove you from the Weekly WebTracker, but not the Automated Tracker. Could you send me a PM to that effect so I a record. Then do not post to your account thread in Members' Accounts (no chat) forum. We are considering, and likely implementing changes to the Automated Tracker that will allow everyone to be tracked but hide fund allocations, and recent returns for those that pay for TSP services.

I have started examining member IFTs in the accounts threads this week for following the paid services moves. They will receive a warning if following the EbbChart system or other paid services. Continued violation of rule 6 will be referred to the site administrator, Tom.

roger that, EW. I'm subscribing to ebb, tho not follow 100%. I won't be posting for tracker anymore, so delete me from the tracker if it's convenient. A double edged sword for Tom, I'd think, since the premium services will cut down on the posts, and most likely the traffic overall, but I'm sure he priced all that in. Thanks for your efforts. GL to all

I agree, members rely on our tracker to compare their TSP return with others. They do not have the financial programs to track all their investments. They have a need to keep up, or do better, than the guy next door. For some it’s the gamesmanship and feeding the gambling impulse.

Of course, you can use any number of tools available to track yourself. Compare your results to those using the auto tracker, and there you go.

The auto tracker is really for those who want to enter into a friendly competition to see who can guess the market the best using their own intuition/system/luck.

If you want to know how the systems that are fee for service are doing, then just refer to their published results. Those using those systems will reflect those results anyway.

 

[DCguy]

I think for a nub like me, this site had provided great service of informing about where, how, and when to invest. But now I see this site requires subscription. I only started investing in TSP just a year ago and I don't have much funds invested in TSP. I think paying for service is good only for those with substantial amount of money invested in TSP and you will see the decrease in the number of new members coming to the site if information is not shared. How can you expect us, nubs, to pay the fee if the gain we achieve with this paid service is so small?... perhaps smaller than the subscription fee you require?

 

[SkyPilot]

I think for a nub like me, this site had provided great service of informing about where, how, and when to invest. But now I see this site requires subscription. I only started investing in TSP just a year ago and I don't have much funds invested in TSP. I think paying for service is good only for those with substantial amount of money invested in TSP and you will see the decrease in the number of new members coming to the site if information is not shared. How can you expect us, nubs, to pay the fee if the gain we achieve with this paid service is so small?... perhaps smaller than the subscription fee you require?

Think in terms of percentage growth instead of actual dollars. You will find it is as or more important to grow your balance now than later as todays dollars will ultimately be more valuable in retirement. For example, that $4 Starbucks will likely be worth 5-6x that amount at retirement.

Many people feel they don't have enough to save or invest, but by waiting, they hardly ever accumulate that amount. How much do you need to start earning what you feel such a service could return?

You probably need to use a service now more than later... if you feel a service is worthwhile at all.

Many people used the same logic to stay in the G fund, until they got enough money to justify the effort to move it around... guess what... now they wish they had gotten involved much sooner...

It is true though, the more you have, the smaller the relative cost of the service. The point is to grow your investment as quick as you can, relative to your ability to tolerate risk...

Also... if you want a discount because you are working with a smaller sum, would you be willing to pay a larger fee when you substantially grow your account proportionately? No thanks... give me the flat fee every time...

 

[camper65]

OK! I give up, When are today's rates posted @ TSP,gov?

 

[Minnow]

somebody will correct me if I'm wrong, but they're usually as close to 7pm eastern time as they can get. But, they usually take longer if there is going to be a fair valuation in the "i" fund.

 

[camper65]

somebody will correct me if I'm wrong, but they're usually as close to 7pm eastern time as they can get. But, they usually take longer if there is going to be a fair valuation in the "i" fund.

Thank You!

 

[Minnow]

You're more than welcome Camper65... first time I've ever answered a question here on the site. I'm somewhat proud of myself. :embarrest:

 

[GGal]

I like the idea of allowing the paid people to post to the tracker but blocking their allocations from others.

I like the idea of including the paid people's returns in the tally.

We will all know who they are since their allocations will be blocked, and seeing their returns may be good advertisement for others to sign up (or not!)

A tally is just a tally.

Of course, paid subscribers shouldn't win prizes. That would p#ss everybody off!

GGAL

 

[ocean]

I just implemented the feature that the autotracker is now capable of blocking the paid members with their last three transactions and returns the same same as the paid services. Example (Ocean and TSPTalk_Trading)

link: http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_balance_all.php

Note: The board moderators will make the final decision to determine if this is a good way to block the paid members' info.

Ocean

 

[Aspiration]

Ocean,

Does this mean we can now use the autotracker if we are following a paid service? Thanks in advance for any guidance you can provide.

 

[ocean]

Ocean,

Does this mean we can now use the autotracker if we are following a paid service? Thanks in advance for any guidance you can provide.

Aspiration,

I believe that this is a good way to keep both paid and non-paid members on the same chart. Some comments I read here (GGal and Fundsurfer) that it may be a good way to block out certain parts of the info from paid members but will keep them on the tally.

Again, I'll let the board moderators to make the final decision on this.

Ocean

 

[James48843]

My vote says yes. That seems to be a good idea. I would like to see EVERYONE compete on the autotracker.

I don't follow any of the paid services exactly. But I DO take a look at the paid services, and factor it into my thought process. Perhaps 15% of my decision on placement may be influenced by where the paid services are - Personnally, I watch Ebb and Trader Fred- but I don't mirror either one of them exactly.

And NO, I don't want to compete for any prizes- I want those to go to the folks who show their ability to perform on their own.

My 2 cents- for what it's worth. (And Ocean will even give me back a penny change...)

 

[James48843]

Minnow is correct (Minnow- isn't this fun? )


TSP.gov USUALLY, but not always, posts new fund prices right around 7 pm. eastern time. Sometimes it's a little later, but 9 times out of 10 they are up by 7:30 pm.

And Minnow is right- that sometimes it seems to be that if they have a FV day, the posting is a little later.

Note to all: They seem to ALWAYS have the new prices on the TSP Thrift line phone service PRIOR to it being posted on the internet. There have been multiple times when they didn't have it posted on tsp.gov, and I was able to call the thriftline and get the numbers at about 7:15pm. Although, again, the FV days seem to be a source of slight delay.

 

[EW_ret]

I want the feature. Its useful, but its not sufficiently secure in my opinion. I can guess the IFT moves of Trader Fred by examining the prior IFTs that are not blocked and knowing that Trader Fred is making a move today, under IFT of the day, even when the allocation is blocked for the day. The fact that a paid service or that many members who subscribe are making a move for the day informs the public that a move is being made. I see a pattern formed looking at prior unblocked IFTs moves by the paid services. If the public knows that today the EbbChart is making a move, I can give a good guess if today’s move is to safety or to I/S funds. Over time of a few weeks or month, however, that would change when EbbChart moves between I and S, or S and I. The Trader Fred service is different because its pattern is stocks, safety, stocks, safety, etc. So for this service blocking just the past three moves is insufficient.

I say we should block all prior IFTs, or more than three. We also should not display the paid services' IFTs under IFT of the day.

I also say once again that we not allow public access to IFT of the day | Members IFT Records | Members Ranking | Returns Analysis | (click on to see) Currently anyone can access all tracker records without logging in. Just click on any of these links at the User Logon page. I say that the tracker records only be accessible after a member logs in. I see this as a big risk factor to our tracker service. I see the convenience, but when the public finds this it could degrade the tracker service. Is this concern of mine exaggerated?

 

[ocean]

The following was the private thread and repost here. I will do what is needed to protect the paid service info and the paid members' interest but I do want to provide good info for the public if it is to be determined useful.

Ocean

My theory for opening up certain info unblocked is to attract all site visitors for frequent visits. If the site has useful information, people will come. That is the purpose of the free site. If the blocking of three is not sufficient, I can make it to 5 for both paid members and paid services.

However, if all the members info are blocked, it will defeat the original purpose of the webtracker. Basically all the info are available from the webtracker and its weekly reports and ATCjeff's daily returns for top 10, but the autotracker makes it much easy to locate. I don't see there is any of security issue here.

As for paid services, we have 1 protected service and 2 unprotected services since last summer (until recently). The returns from these services range from below average, to average to extremely exceptional. But it is up to the individual to make their own investment decision. Not everyone 100% follows these services. It is the beauty of free investment. It is indicated from over 140 tracked members' records on the webtracker.

If non-paid visitor could receive some hints or investment idea from this site, why not let them do it if they found the info useful. If they could configure out all the moves of the Ebbchart, that's good for them. But still, will they follow it 100%, that is another question.

My original goal to have the autotracker written was to help the admin to do the job easier and at the same time to provide useful info for visitors. Certainly I do not want to have all the info hidden for paid members.

But I will make certain adjustment for registered members (not the paid members) to view its own data if it is determined to be necessary.

 

[budnipper1]

There is an important and distinct difference between some members' interpretations of the rules and what is actually stated in those rules. A member who pays for a service might not follow the recommendation of that paid service. This will likely apply to the current status of many tsptalk members.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=120765&postcount=12
EW_ret
TSP Tracker
Re: The Tracker and Paid Services
That simple solution is to follow rule six; do not track any member who pays for a TSP service. If you pay for any TSP service you are not in the tracker.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=4775
Automated Tracker Rules
6. You should not use the Automated Tracker if you are following TSP Timing Newsletter, TSP Trader System, or any other allocation service.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=4386
Rules For Posting In Members' Accounts (no chat)
7. You should not create an Account if you are following TSP Timing Newsletter, TSP Trader System, or any other paid service.

Only a select, small number of members of tsp.talk have access to lists of the paying subscribers. (Tom, and others with a "need to know") Unless a member has made a point to announce it, the general population does not know who pays or who does not pay. Considering these facts, I suggest that blocking the IFT's posted by Ebb and the other Pay Services should be all that is necessary to "protect" the sanctity of the tracker and the pay services. After implementing that measure, if any member's returns develop a pattern of exactly mirroring Ebb's moves or returns, or the returns of any of the other pay services, then the blocking of that member's IFT's in the tracker would then be appropriate.

Blocking the IFT's of any other tsp.talk members merely because they have subscribed to a pay service serves no useful purpose, except to penalize those members for supporting this site, which is the main reason these services were created.

 

[camper65]

Were do I go to talk to other paid for service members on matters that should be between them and I???? No one else??
I see a need for a secure thread here, am I wrong???

 

[SkyPilot]

I don't think anyone has suggested just because someone has subscribed to a service that their IFT's should be hidden. However, if an individual is using a subscription service to make their moves, it is incumbent upon them to avoid posting their moves in a manner that reveals the content of the subscription service.

And why would someone want to? Participants who are using a particular service will notice right away, so it's not as if one could claim great prowess in their financial acumen without being outed.

However, if you are using several services and picking and choosing between them, no one will be able to know who's who or what's what. And then, watch folks post their moves on TSP Stategery and smoke the returns on that forum .

If things get to be too much of a problem, I suppose that the proprietor of the paid service could revoke the subscription of the indiscrete poster. :blink:

 

[camper65]

How about US? Moderators get FREE access to the PFSs are we going to be treated the same way as the Member subscribers, or are we trusted enough not to spill the beans? As anyone can see I really don't follow any system, but I do take their allocations into consideration.

The Tracker, I believe is probably the biggest reason people are attracted to TSP Talk, I really believe that. The more people on it the better.

Idealistically the folks that subscribe would have a tracker just for them to track their moves, there may be a few that follow religiously, but I don't think there is many that won't go on their own if the PFS ain't doing too well. They should be in the other tracker too in order for the other members to see how well they are doing in the paid services (Totals only). I know the problems this would create in the tracker but may resolve this problem. Sometimes I have a strange way of looking at things, but that's just how my mind works.
My 4 cents,
Norman

I agree with you! The sooner the better! For my self, I have to ask why I should be paying for a sys. that can be gotten for free! This doesn't work as is. If paid for Sys. work, then there results will stand. No need to show individual moves. (My 2 cents)