The Tariff Talk

[tsptalk]

Latest Tariff news:

Trump tariffs on Mexico to be paused one month, Sheinbaum says, as she announces troop border deployment

President Donald Trump paused for a month new 25% tariffs on goods entering the United States from Mexico.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum agreed to immediately send 10,000 soldiers to her country’s border to prevent the trafficking of fentanyl and other drugs.

The announcement came two days after Trump slapped 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, as well as a 10% tariff on goods imported from China.

Trump said there will be Mexican officials, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent, and Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick will negotiate on tariffs.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/03/trump-tariffs-mexico-canada-china-sheinbaum-responds.html

 

[TommyIV]

That news seemed to cut this morning's losses. Where's Canada's phone call?

 

[tsptalk]

I believe a Trudeau call is on Trump's to do list this morning.

 

[tsptalk]

The art of the deal...

President Donald Trump paused for a month new 25% tariffs on goods entering the United States from Mexico.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum agreed to immediately send 10,000 soldiers to her country’s border to prevent the trafficking of fentanyl and other drugs.

The market will stay bumpy, but once they understand this is all negotiation tactics and not a permanent practice, things will settle down.

The fact that Trump is threatening European countries with tariffs is a little more tricky. No fentanyl at those borders, but he certainly has something he is trying to get them to do.

Again, the market will just have to accept the volatility while it unfolds, but by the end of the year we'll wonder what the fuss was all about. We'll have to get used to it and see if we can't take advantage of the inevitable volatility this will bring.

 

[tsptalk]

China retaliates with additional tariffs of up to 15% on select U.S. imports starting Feb. 10

Key Points

• China’s Finance Ministry said Tuesday it will impose additional tariffs of 15% on coal and liquefied natural gas imports from the U.S., starting Feb. 10.

• China will also levy 10% higher duties on American crude oil, farm equipment, and certain cars and trucks, as well as enacting export controls on certain products related to critical minerals.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/04/china-levies-tariffs-on-select-us-imports-starting-feb-10.html

 

[James48843]

This isn’t a negotiation tactic.

I’m pretty sure somebody convinced Don to go ahead and do tariffs, like they did in the 1880’s, and it’s going to bring in big bucks.

Unfortunately, Trump has no idea of the problems Tariffs brought during the Great Depression. Smoot-Hartley tariffs in the 1930’s killed our Economy in the 30’s, and will do so again now.

 

[James48843]

 

[James48843]

China tariffs jump tomorrow from 10% to 20%.

Mexico and Canada- jump to 25% tomorrow.

Trump has said EU is going to be soon.

Those are all going to hurt U.S . GDP numbers. Recession will hit soon.

 

[nasa1974]

It's funny how Trump has complained about the trade imbalance between the U.S., Mexico and Canada. But isn't this the trade agreement that was signed between the three countries during his first administration?

 

[James48843]

So- I just had another thought-

What happens if…..

If on March 14 the government runs out of money. And can’t get the votes to pass a debt ceiling boost?

Will the markets drop 20%? 30%. More?

I’m thinking there is a very, very real possibility of have several days, at least, that become critical. Being unable to pass a timely budget extension would be terrible. Add to that the tariffs and decreasing GDP, increasing job losses from government layoffs, with all the related bad news.

Could be nasty.


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

 

[James48843]

 

[James48843]

So- how is it that the President has the power to suddenly impose tariffs on anything anyway?

His claim is that tariffs are punishment for allowing fentanyl in from Canada. Isn’t that a heck of stretch? Why do we let a single person make decisions to impose a tariff? Shouldn’t there be some kind of ratification by Comgressof tax rates? After all, it’s Congress that is given the power to tax in the Constitution, not the President.

 

[nasa1974]

So- how is it that the President has the power to suddenly impose tariffs on anything anyway?

His claim is that tariffs are punishment for allowing fentanyl in from Canada. Isn’t that a heck of stretch? Why do we let a single person make decisions to impose a tariff? Shouldn’t there be some kind of ratification by Comgressof tax rates? After all, it’s Congress that is given the power to tax in the Constitution, not the President.

Because a certain portion of Congress have capitulated.

 

[WorkFE]

View attachment 68303

Saturday and Sunday is looking good.

 

[tsptalk]

So- I just had another thought-

What happens if…..

If on March 14 the government runs out of money. And can’t get the votes to pass a debt ceiling boost?

Will the markets drop 20%? 30%. More?

I can't say you haven't called this one perfectly so far, James.

History suggests otherwise, however there are a lot of people who would love to see it go down so they can post Trump memes.

 

[nasa1974]

I can't say you haven't called this one perfectly so far, James.

History suggests otherwise, however there are a lot of people who would love to see it go down so they can post Trump memes.

Dang!! I was in every one of those.

 

[jonfresno]

Dang!! I was in every one of those.

Whoa, no way!! Got me beat.. I'll never forget the 95-96 shutdown. I worked on a Navy contract, a procurement system, and even though it was shutdown, AND there was a day where we had a massive snow storm, my boss made me come in, then sent us home around 11am. White knuckle drive to get in and go home. Was so glad when I became a fed later on in 96.

Nice, and thanks for your service.

 

[evilanne]

Whoa, no way!! Got me beat.. I'll never forget the 95-96 shutdown. I worked on a Navy contract, a procurement system, and even though it was shutdown, AND there was a day where we had a massive snow storm, my boss made me come in, then sent us home around 11am. White knuckle drive to get in and go home. Was so glad when I became a fed later on in 96.

Nice, and thanks for your service.

I remember 95-96, DoD only shut down for a couple of weeks. When they finally past budget to get everybody back to work, we got about 18" of snow that shut down the whole DC metro area...I called it Poetic Justice

 

[WorkFE]

I remember 95-96, DoD only shut down for a couple of weeks. When they finally past budget to get everybody back to work, we got about 18" of snow that shut down the whole DC metro area...I called it Poetic Justice

I don't recall the shutdown; I was still on active duty then. However, I do remember the winter storm. My wife and I were visiting my sister in Virginia, power went out and had to visit the creek for water to flush the toilets. If I remember correctly, it was around the holidays.

 

[Greensboro]

Latest Tariff news:

Trump tariffs on Mexico to be paused one month, Sheinbaum says, as she announces troop border deployment

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/03/trump-tariffs-mexico-canada-china-sheinbaum-responds.html

So much winning...

Seriously, Trump is wanting companies to move manufacturing from outside the US to inside the US. That takes a lot of time and business certainty to make those kind of decisions. With the flip flopping on tariffs being on/off/delayed based on who has sucked up to him last, there's no way that creates certainty to justify the business decisions he seeks. Seems more like a stunt that puts him, and he alone, in the "Suck up to me chair".

Have never understood why people continuously make excuses for and give this guy a pass on WHATEVER he does. These tariffs were a bad idea. Haven't seen a single respected economist say they're a good idea. We're in more trouble than anyone wants to admit.