1/17/13
Stocks continued their sideways action as the indices have closed in a very tight range for 5 straight days. The Dow lost 24-points while the Nasdaq was up 6, and the S&P 500 was flat.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 154"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.03%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.29%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.57%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Small caps lagged yesterday but they have been leading on the upside, and the I-fund lost 0.6% yesterday after Japan's Nikkei lost 2%.
The S&P 500 closed near 1473 again, but can't seem to move past it. These prolonged consolidations tend to end with a big move in one irection or the other, and while I have been anticipating some kind of test of the 1490-1500 area, the indicators are giving us some mixed messages.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The sideways action has helped take the indices off of the very overbought levels we've seen recently, but they still remain modestly overbought.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
This sharp defensive move from the smart money of the OEX put/call ratios has me concerned. Yesterday's one-day reading of 5.55 is one of the largest in years - only surpassed by last August's reading near 6.0. We have seen a few readings greater than 4.0 and the market saw a couple a large pullbacks shortly after them.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The 10-day moving average hit a 2 to 1 ratio, also a reading than has caused some problems in the past, but not always instantly.
The dollar is on the side of stocks. This chart keeps getting more and more bearish. The current head and shoulders pattern (blue), which is bearish, is actually within a larger head and shoulders pattern (not shown). Then, the UUP moved up to test the head, failed, and has now created a bear flag while running back up to the 20-day EMA.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Got all that? That's a bearish chart, and if technical analysis has any say, this chart could see a pretty serious decline in the coming weeks, and of course that could help stocks. It may not keep stocks positive, but it would be somewhat of a cushion barring any kind of collapse, and looking at this chart, I'm not ruling out a minor collapse.
I have to say that I am not quite as bullish as I was a couple of days ago, although I still think it's possible we could see a break to the upside near 1500, but it may be short lived. The smart money is getting too bearish, and judging by our recent sentiment survey results, us dumb money folks have been getting a little too bullish.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks continued their sideways action as the indices have closed in a very tight range for 5 straight days. The Dow lost 24-points while the Nasdaq was up 6, and the S&P 500 was flat.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 154"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.03%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.29%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.57%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Small caps lagged yesterday but they have been leading on the upside, and the I-fund lost 0.6% yesterday after Japan's Nikkei lost 2%.
The S&P 500 closed near 1473 again, but can't seem to move past it. These prolonged consolidations tend to end with a big move in one irection or the other, and while I have been anticipating some kind of test of the 1490-1500 area, the indicators are giving us some mixed messages.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The sideways action has helped take the indices off of the very overbought levels we've seen recently, but they still remain modestly overbought.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
This sharp defensive move from the smart money of the OEX put/call ratios has me concerned. Yesterday's one-day reading of 5.55 is one of the largest in years - only surpassed by last August's reading near 6.0. We have seen a few readings greater than 4.0 and the market saw a couple a large pullbacks shortly after them.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The 10-day moving average hit a 2 to 1 ratio, also a reading than has caused some problems in the past, but not always instantly.
The dollar is on the side of stocks. This chart keeps getting more and more bearish. The current head and shoulders pattern (blue), which is bearish, is actually within a larger head and shoulders pattern (not shown). Then, the UUP moved up to test the head, failed, and has now created a bear flag while running back up to the 20-day EMA.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Got all that? That's a bearish chart, and if technical analysis has any say, this chart could see a pretty serious decline in the coming weeks, and of course that could help stocks. It may not keep stocks positive, but it would be somewhat of a cushion barring any kind of collapse, and looking at this chart, I'm not ruling out a minor collapse.
I have to say that I am not quite as bullish as I was a couple of days ago, although I still think it's possible we could see a break to the upside near 1500, but it may be short lived. The smart money is getting too bearish, and judging by our recent sentiment survey results, us dumb money folks have been getting a little too bullish.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
