The market is looking for a catalyst

The Dow was down, the S&P 500 was up. The Nasdaq was up, small caps were down. Oil was up and that seems to be helping keep stocks buoyant but the divergence between the indices is interesting. There seems to be some indecision out there as investors pick and choose what might do best next.

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It's been a quiet earnings season so far but even if they turn out better than expected, the gains during the first three and a half months this year set up potential profit taking - at least that's what I have been thinking, but so far the indices are holding up well. Small caps are getting a little flaky on us, but nothing serious yet.

Sorry to do this to you but I went out of town for Easter weekend and I still haven't gotten back to the office. I have some plans over the next couple of days so the commentary may be on the brief side. The market is cooperating by not doing much at all recently so there's not much to report on anyway. I should be back in my office by Tuesday tonight or Wednesday at the latest.



The S&P 500 (C-fund) was up slightly and closed near the highs of the day as every dip continues to be bought. There hasn't been a whole lot of movement in either direction over the last week or so as investors seem to be on hold for something - I'm not sure exactly what that is but they seem to be waiting for a catalyst of some sort.

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The DWCPF (S-fund) lagged with a modest loss yesterday and this fund is trading below a couple levels of support / old resistance, but remains above that 20-day EMA so it's hard to get too alarmed just yet.

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The EFA (I-fund) was down but the I-fund was flat as the dollar dipped trying to fill that gap we showed in Monday's commentary.

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The high yield corporate bonds have been drifting lower, but these aren't bearish patterns. As you can see, these pullbacks often result in new legs higher.

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The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) was down and continues to test that multiple layer of support near 108. It looks like a good place for it to pop higher, so if it doesn't, it would be a red flag for bonds and the uptrend may be over. So, we'll just see which way it wants to go from here.

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Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php


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