The Frog Pond Market & Retirement Report

[Spaf]

The Frog Pond Market & Retirement Report
Post No. 1. (Reserved)

 

[Spaf]

The Frog Pond Market & Retirement Report
Sunday Edition
September 16, 2007 - - September Issue​

Commentary:

The market has been in a rather choppy trading environment, good if you were a nimble hopping bunny-. The S&P has been consolidating in a somewhat pennant formation. There should be a break out soon, up or down. The good news is that the S&P closed with prices above the 13 day moving average. The Bollinger Bands which record volatility have come back to a normal range with a width of about 60. The Stochastics oscillator is registering bullish with %K above %D. However the bad news is that it is at 74.41, close to the overbought range of 80.

We should see some [$SPX] upward resistance about 1,495 with the lower support level at about 1,435. For any up trend to be wholesome the volume really needs to pick up. We haven't had any good volume since around mid August, and low volume signals uncertainty. We also have an energy factor; crude has been increasing recently, closing on Friday at $79.10 a barrel.

For a retirement position we will be protecting cash and waiting to see what plays out. We have some problems: the history of September (not being a good month), the credit debacle, housing declines, low market volume, etc.


Fundamentals:

Economic News - CNNMoney

NYMEX crude - wtrg


Technical Analysis:

[$SPX] 1,484.25 up 30.70 for the week. Fridays volume was low at 2.23B, having a EMA of 2.85B.
[$SPX] Stops; Alert (-1%) = 1,469....Trail (-2%) = 1,454

Risk vs Reward: 40 / 60. Risk: moderate. Volatility: Normal.


Allocation: 100% G-fund. Capital preservation.


TSP Share Prices:
Week Ending........G=12.12..F=11.56..C=16.64..S=19.91..I=23.83
End of 2006.........G=11.71..F=11.14..C=15.69..S=18.76..I=22.22

A look at the chart(s)
[$SPX]
Large Caps

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com​

 

[Spaf]

The Frog Pond Market & Retirement Report
Daily Edition
September 17, 2007 - - September Issue​

Commentary:

The market took some small losses on weak volume. Crude prices were up over $80.00 a barrel. Investors are still worried about the possibility of US economic slowdown, and the disruption to the credit market.

The Stochastics oscillator registered 77.04 for the S&P, flurting with overbought conditions. The 50 day moving average is still trending downward.

For a retirement position we will be protecting cash, still waiting to see what plays out.


Fundamentals:

Economic News - CNNMoney

NYMEX crude - wtrg


Technical Analysis:

[$SPX] 1,476.65 down 07.60 for the day. Volume was low at 2.13B, having a EMA of 2.83B.
[$SPX] Stops; Alert (-1%) = 1,469....Trail (-2%) = 1,454

Risk vs Reward: 40 / 60. Risk: moderate. Volatility: Normal.


Allocation: 100% G-fund. Capital preservation.


TSP Share Prices:
Daily..............G=12.12..F=11.57..C=16.56..S=19.74..I=23.56

 

[Spaf]

The Frog Pond Market & Retirement Report
Daily Edition
September 19, 2007 - - September Issue​

Commentary:

The market has had some nice gains on the lowering of interest rates by the Fed. Crude prices were up close to $82.00 a barrel.

The Stochastics oscillator (S.O.) registered 86.48 for the S&P, in overbought conditions. The 50 day moving average is starting a curve upward.

For a retirement position we will be protecting cash. Two days ago it was a gamble. Nope, not worth the risk! The DOW went up 412 points in the last two days. If the Fed had not lowered rates and let's say the Dow went down 412 points, how would that have affected your retirement funds? The retirement strategy is to lose none and gain some!

The next strategy is to find a place to buy in. However with the S.O. in overbought conditions, buying high would be to great of a risk, especially since the G-fund will attain our goal at no risk.

PS: The goal is a +7%


Fundamentals:

Economic News - CNNMoney

NYMEX crude - wtrg


Technical Analysis:

[$SPX] 1,529.03 up 09.25 for the day. Volume was ok at 3.17B, having a EMA of 2.85B.
[$SPX] Stops; Alert (-1%) = 1,514....Trail (-2%) = 1,499

Risk vs Reward: 60 / 40. Risk: moderate. Volatility: Increasing.


Allocation: 100% G-fund. Capital preservation.


TSP Share Prices:
Daily..............G=12.12..F=11.59..C=17.14..S=20.50..I=24.46

 

[Spaf]

The Frog Pond Market & Retirement Report
Sunday Edition
September 23, 2007 - - September Issue​

Commentary:

The market has had a good advance to levels of resistance. But will it continue?

Volume picked up on Friday [$SPX Volume=3.27B, EMA was V=2.85B] S&P closed above the 13 day moving average, however it's stochastics oscillator was registering 85.69, as overbought and below %D of 87.39, kind of bearish. The Bollinger bands started increasing in width; indicating an increase in volatility.

For a retirement position we will still be protecting cash and waiting; for some sort of a trend to develope and to get out of the overbought conditions.


Fundamentals:

Economic News - CNNMoney

NYMEX crude - wtrg


Technical Analysis:

[$SPX] 1,525.75 up 41.50 for the week.
[$SPX] Stops; Alert (-1%) = 1,514....Trail (-2%) = 1,499

Risk vs Reward: 80 / 20. Risk: high. Volatility: Increasing.


Allocation: 100% G-fund. Capital preservation.


TSP Share Prices:
Week Ending........G=12.13..F=11.54..C=17.11..S=20.44..I=24.61
End of 2006.........G=11.71..F=11.14..C=15.69..S=18.76..I=22.22

A look at the chart(s)
[$SPX]
Large Caps

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com​

 

[Spaf]

The Frog Pond Market & Retirement Report
Periodic Edition
Thursday September 27, 2007 - - September Issue​

Commentary:

Retirement -Inflation & the Cost of living.

The Story

I grew up in San Antonio Texas where my Dad was a small business man, his name was "Jack". We had one policeman for the north side of Bexar County; Constable Bill Hancock. We also had two good size highschools. Noth side and Robert E. Lee. Since Constable Bill couldn't be at two football games at the same time, he needed some deputies.

Several of the small business men were sought out by the Constable to help with some of the local social affairs, just be there was what constable Bill wanted.

So he gave my Dad and other businessmen a badge (about the size of a 0.50 cent piece that fit in a man's wallet.

Then he told my Dad that he needed a gun. I think my Dad's quote was $*&^ &$%# )^@* *&@!) what do I need a &^%*( %$@*^# gun for????? [that's a pretty exact quote!]

Well, my Dad looked around and kept complaining about the cost of a hand gun! He bought a foreign gun that wasen't worth a %$#&. (his quote not mine!)

We were visiting my Uncle Pete in Grandview Texas. Uncle Pete was a farmer, Grandview Texas had a population of 2XX I believe! My Dad brought up the subject of being a deputy constable, he liked helping out schools and social programs but the idea of carrying a handgun made him upset, besides costing a arm and a leg!

Old Uncle Pete said that he had bought a pistol from Sears, but the dang shells cost so much that he had rather use his 22 rifle! If my Dad wanted the pistol he could have it!

Well my Dad took the pistol, and I now have it!

Now we get to the retirement, inflation and cost of living factor!

In 1897 in the Sears Catalogue, the pistol a H&R Automatic Revolver cost $2.85
BTW: Postage was 0.22 cents.
In 1897 in the Sears Catalogue, the caliber .38 shells, 50 per box cost. $0.54

In 1998 in the Gun Traders Guide listed the H&R Automatic Revolver as $145.00
Yesterday I bought a box of shells; .38 S&W short, 50 per box cost. $27.95

The moral of the story is inflation and the cost of living! Please keep this in mind when planning for retirement!

Be careful out there.....

Regards

Spaf

 

[Spaf]

The Frog Pond Market & Retirement Report
Sunday Edition
September 30, 2007 - - September Issue​

Commentary:

Last week appeared to be a consolidating period for SPX. We will be going into the 4th quarter which is generally the strongest quarter of the year.

Volume was light for the week even though there was a slight pick up on Friday [$SPX Volume=2.27B, EMA was V=2.79B]. S&P closed above the 13 day moving average, however it's stochastics oscillator was registering 88.48, as overbought, but above %D of 85.20, kind of bullish. The Bollinger bands are trending upward, giving the prices a bit of room.

For a retirement position we will still be protecting cash, but some light diversification has been made in the bonds and stocks.


Fundamentals:

Economic News - CNNMoney

NYMEX crude - wtrg


Technical Analysis:

[$SPX] 1,526.75 up 01.00 for the week.
[$SPX] Stops; Alert (-1%) = 1,516....Trail (-2%) = 1,501

Risk vs Reward: 100 / 00. Risk: high.


Allocation: 60% G-fund, 10% F-Fund, 10% C-Fund, 10% S-Fund, and 10% I-Fund.


TSP Share Prices:
Week Ending........G=12.14..F=11.58..C=17.13..S=20.48..I=25.18
End of 2006.........G=11.71..F=11.14..C=15.69..S=18.76..I=22.22

A look at the chart(s)
[$SPX]
Large Caps

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com​

 

[Spaf]

The Frog Pond Market & Retirement Report
Sunday Edition
October 07, 2007 - - October Issue​

Commentary:

Last week was a good week for Stocks, Sox and Socks! According to the Stock Traders Almanac October is known as the jinx month because of crashes; October 19,1987, DOW down 22.6% in one day! Ouch! Yet October is also known as a "bear killer". It's been the best month in the last 8 years. A great time to buy! Big October gains five years 1999-2003 after bad Septembers!

$SPX pricing is holding above the 13 day MA, and is in a upward trend. Volume has been light, but ok. Pricing remains under the top Bollinger Band which gives it room to advance. The Stochastics oscillator is above 80, and is in overbought conditions.

For a retirement position we will still be protecting cash, but some light diversification has been made in the bonds and stocks. Generally we are holding a position between the L-Income fund and the L-2010 fund,


Fundamentals:

Economic News - CNNMoney

NYMEX crude - wtrg


Technical Analysis:

[$SPX] 1,557.59 up 28.75 for the week.
[$SPX] Stops; Alert (-1%) = 1,542....Trail (-2%) = 1,527

Risk vs Reward: 50 / 50. Risk: moderate.


Allocation: 60% G-fund, 10% F-Fund, 10% C-Fund, 10% S-Fund and 10% I-Fund.


TSP Share Prices:
Week Ending........G=12.15..F=11.57..C=17.48..S=21.18..I=25.58
End of 2006.........G=11.71..F=11.14..C=15.69..S=18.76..I=22.22

A look at the chart(s)
[$SPX]
Large Caps

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com​

 

[Spaf]

The Frog Pond Market & Retirement Report
Sunday Edition
October 14, 2007 - - October Issue​

Commentary:

SPX remains in the overbought area and has turned a little bearish with %K below %D. However it might stay in this area for some time as the market consolidates. The moving averages look good with pricing holding above the 13d MA on a bullish trend. Volume has been somewhat light; last reported at 2.2B versus a EMA of 2.7B.

For a retirement position we will still be protecting cash, but some light diversification has been made in the bonds and stocks to increase our buffer. Generally we will continue to hold a position between the L-Income fund and the L-2010 fund.


Fundamentals:

Economic News - CNNMoney

NYMEX crude - wtrg


Technical Analysis:

[$SPX] 1,561.80 up 04.21 for the week.
[$SPX] Stops; Alert (-1%) = 1,550....Trail (-2%) = 1,535

Risk vs Reward: 40 / 60. Risk: moderate.


Allocation: 60% G-fund, 10% F-Fund, 10% C-Fund, 10% S-Fund and 10% I-Fund.


TSP Share Prices:
Week Ending........G=12.16..F=11.57..C=17.53..S=21.25..I=25.84
End of 2006.........G=11.71..F=11.14..C=15.69..S=18.76..I=22.22

A look at the chart(s)
[$SPX]
Large Caps

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com​