10/23/12
After Friday's big 200-point sell-off, stocks were holding on most of the morning yesterday, but fell apart in the early afternoon trading. The last hour of trading however, saw buyers step up and the Dow closed up 2-points on the day, which was 110-points above the day's low.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 241"]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 158"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.0114%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.05%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.18%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.54%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 broke below the 50-day EMA, and as I mentioned yesterday, probably caused a little bit of panic, but the bulls were there ready to buy. It closed above the key 1430 area.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The question is, was the late 100 point rally in the Dow just a 'dead cat bounce' after the nearly 400+ point decline from last week's high?
The Nasdaq was due for a bounce, but the downtrend is clearly intact. Can we get a relief rally to the top of the descending trading channel? Sure. But that's when the bears will put the pressure on again, if they wait that long. It sure looks like it wants to test the 200-day EMA.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
We have posted this Semiconductor Index a few times over the last couple of months since it can be a major influence on the tech stocks of the Nasdaq. It has been in a downtrend since mid-September and the upside may be limited if resistance holds.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
As always, we are watching the dollar closely and it is once again testing the 20-day EMA and will either break above it, or pull back from it. While the trend appears to be down, the dollar bears have not been able to get the UUP below the September lows, but at the same time the dollar bulls haven't been able to keep it above the 20-day EMA.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
As I have mentioned before, when you continue to knock on the door [of a moving average or support / resistance line] eventually someone is going to let you in. I will look for stocks to break counter to the way this chart breaks.
This chart shows that the put / call options traders are looking at this pullback differently - as usually. The dumb money of the CBOE ratios have been in retreat as the market has fallen, while the smart money has become less defensive.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
This is typical action, but the smart money is generally peaking on the bullish side (up closer to 1.25) before we see a market bottom. They buy on the way down, while the dumb money sells on the way down. This is at least a short term bullish indication, but it is a short-term indicator and traders will be able to move a lot faster than we can in our TSP accounts.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
After Friday's big 200-point sell-off, stocks were holding on most of the morning yesterday, but fell apart in the early afternoon trading. The last hour of trading however, saw buyers step up and the Dow closed up 2-points on the day, which was 110-points above the day's low.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 241"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 158"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.0114%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.05%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.18%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.54%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 broke below the 50-day EMA, and as I mentioned yesterday, probably caused a little bit of panic, but the bulls were there ready to buy. It closed above the key 1430 area.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The question is, was the late 100 point rally in the Dow just a 'dead cat bounce' after the nearly 400+ point decline from last week's high?
The Nasdaq was due for a bounce, but the downtrend is clearly intact. Can we get a relief rally to the top of the descending trading channel? Sure. But that's when the bears will put the pressure on again, if they wait that long. It sure looks like it wants to test the 200-day EMA.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
We have posted this Semiconductor Index a few times over the last couple of months since it can be a major influence on the tech stocks of the Nasdaq. It has been in a downtrend since mid-September and the upside may be limited if resistance holds.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
As always, we are watching the dollar closely and it is once again testing the 20-day EMA and will either break above it, or pull back from it. While the trend appears to be down, the dollar bears have not been able to get the UUP below the September lows, but at the same time the dollar bulls haven't been able to keep it above the 20-day EMA.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
As I have mentioned before, when you continue to knock on the door [of a moving average or support / resistance line] eventually someone is going to let you in. I will look for stocks to break counter to the way this chart breaks.
This chart shows that the put / call options traders are looking at this pullback differently - as usually. The dumb money of the CBOE ratios have been in retreat as the market has fallen, while the smart money has become less defensive.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
This is typical action, but the smart money is generally peaking on the bullish side (up closer to 1.25) before we see a market bottom. They buy on the way down, while the dumb money sells on the way down. This is at least a short term bullish indication, but it is a short-term indicator and traders will be able to move a lot faster than we can in our TSP accounts.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
