Wow! What a day. It looks like 2016 is going to be a rough year - and I don't just mean in the stock market. I lost one of my PC's yesterday along with many of the files, emails, and data that I rely on. I have some backups and should be alright, but there are some issues. Between that and getting the AutoTracker set up for the initial run in 2016, I was way behind in writing my commentary for today.
Not a good day to make it brief, but I think we knew the first day in January could be a wild one, and it sure was. The Dow lost 276-points, but that was actually about 200-points off the low as there was a strong relief rally to end the day.
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A major sell-off in China seemed to be the catalyst, taking the weakness in oil off the front page - at least for a day.
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-Fund) gapped down sharply but that weak open was actually the high of the day until the final minutes of trading when the gap started to pull stocks up again. It was minor, but a lower low was made making that recent peak a second lower high. It's possible that this is a big bull flag, but the other charts aren't confirming that kind of bullish formation.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Completion Index (small caps / S-Fund) lagged again but closed well off the lows and possibly made a double bottom.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Chinese's Shanghai Index was down nearly 7% on Monday and their "safety" circuit breakers shut down their trading early. As I write this Monday night, the Shanghai had not yet opened for trading on Tuesday morning.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) put in a similar scenario - a big gap, a possible double bottom, and at a do or die level.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The AGG (Bonds / F-Fund) was up sharply early as investors moved to safety, but as stock rebounded, bonds came back down and the AGG actually closed in negative territory, bit it found support at the 200-day EMA.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Not a good day to make it brief, but I think we knew the first day in January could be a wild one, and it sure was. The Dow lost 276-points, but that was actually about 200-points off the low as there was a strong relief rally to end the day.
[TABLE="width: 89%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 180, align: center"]
[TD="width: 49, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
A major sell-off in China seemed to be the catalyst, taking the weakness in oil off the front page - at least for a day.
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-Fund) gapped down sharply but that weak open was actually the high of the day until the final minutes of trading when the gap started to pull stocks up again. It was minor, but a lower low was made making that recent peak a second lower high. It's possible that this is a big bull flag, but the other charts aren't confirming that kind of bullish formation.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Completion Index (small caps / S-Fund) lagged again but closed well off the lows and possibly made a double bottom.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Chinese's Shanghai Index was down nearly 7% on Monday and their "safety" circuit breakers shut down their trading early. As I write this Monday night, the Shanghai had not yet opened for trading on Tuesday morning.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) put in a similar scenario - a big gap, a possible double bottom, and at a do or die level.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The AGG (Bonds / F-Fund) was up sharply early as investors moved to safety, but as stock rebounded, bonds came back down and the AGG actually closed in negative territory, bit it found support at the 200-day EMA.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
