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Testing the waters on Thursday - 4/8/04
- Thread starter JerBer
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We had another earnings warning after the close today. This one from Seagate. It seems to have the futures down after the close. If we are down again in the morning (Wednesday) before the noon deadline, I will make a ONE DAY move into stocks for Thursday. The Monday after Easter is not usually a great day and depending on what happens Wed and Thurs we will probably continue the short pullback early next week. If we are down big Wednesday, which is a long shot, I may keep a small something in the C,S or I over the weekend. I will send out an email and post something here.
Remember, Friday the stock markets are closed although I'm not sure how that affects the EAFE.
Tom
We had another earnings warning after the close today. This one from Seagate. It seems to have the futures down after the close. If we are down again in the morning (Wednesday) before the noon deadline, I will make a ONE DAY move into stocks for Thursday. The Monday after Easter is not usually a great day and depending on what happens Wed and Thurs we will probably continue the short pullback early next week. If we are down big Wednesday, which is a long shot, I may keep a small something in the C,S or I over the weekend. I will send out an email and post something here.
Remember, Friday the stock markets are closed although I'm not sure how that affects the EAFE.
Tom
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im a gambler, yes ill be in s and c for thursday,
im a gambler, yes ill be in s and c for thursday,
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I'm a bit of a risk taker as well so I'll give it a go also! I have a question for you about jumping in and out though. We place a transfer before noon today effective tomorrow, got that. Do we then place another transfer tomorrow effective for Monday or do we just ride out Monday and hope for a good Tuesday and place another transfer effective for Wednesday?Sorry, it's just a bit confusing for me. Thanks!
I'm a bit of a risk taker as well so I'll give it a go also! I have a question for you about jumping in and out though. We place a transfer before noon today effective tomorrow, got that. Do we then place another transfer tomorrow effective for Monday or do we just ride out Monday and hope for a good Tuesday and place another transfer effective for Wednesday?Sorry, it's just a bit confusing for me. Thanks!
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puertorico
TSP Strategist
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Tom,do u made 100% to C ?
Tom,do u made 100% to C ?
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Like I mentioned in the comments, this seasonality data didn't work out for me in March, but you have to admit this Good Friday chart is compelling.
Chart provided by [url]www.sentimentrader.com[/url]
Like I mentioned in the comments, this seasonality data didn't work out for me in March, but you have to admit this Good Friday chart is compelling.
Chart provided by [url]www.sentimentrader.com[/url]
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It's an interesting chart, but the statistics are based on only 53 days. Except for the -1 day, tomorrow, the %positives look to be within normal variability. Only the 70% (which represents 35 days) looks convincing. Going by this chart alone, I would agree about 100%C tomorrow, but after that it's not clear..
It's an interesting chart, but the statistics are based on only 53 days. Except for the -1 day, tomorrow, the %positives look to be within normal variability. Only the 70% (which represents 35 days) looks convincing. Going by this chart alone, I would agree about 100%C tomorrow, but after that it's not clear..
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It actually gets better in bull markets.The67% is for all occurances of theThursday prior to Good friday.I don't have the chart to post but basically when the S&P was above its 50-day m.a., then the day before Good Friday was higher 76% of the time. In this instance the Monday and Tuesday following Easter is generally positive more often than negative and within in normal range for that stat, but the averagegain on that Tuesday is significantly above the normal range. Particularly if Monday was a down day.
The fact that we are stilloverbought, althoughthese last couple days are helping,makes it likely that itis a one day play, then I will go back to following my normal indicators. If we do pullback on Monday,ideally down near the gap I mentioned and the50 day ma (both are at about the same level) Tuesday could also be a day to be in stocks, perhaps even for longer term. But that might be premature. We'll have to wait and see on that one.
Tom
It actually gets better in bull markets.The67% is for all occurances of theThursday prior to Good friday.I don't have the chart to post but basically when the S&P was above its 50-day m.a., then the day before Good Friday was higher 76% of the time. In this instance the Monday and Tuesday following Easter is generally positive more often than negative and within in normal range for that stat, but the averagegain on that Tuesday is significantly above the normal range. Particularly if Monday was a down day.
The fact that we are stilloverbought, althoughthese last couple days are helping,makes it likely that itis a one day play, then I will go back to following my normal indicators. If we do pullback on Monday,ideally down near the gap I mentioned and the50 day ma (both are at about the same level) Tuesday could also be a day to be in stocks, perhaps even for longer term. But that might be premature. We'll have to wait and see on that one.
Tom
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Tom , thank you for the info that u supply. it really helps when deciding about a transfer of funds.
how did u find the history of the thursday before good friday.
the odds are in our favor tomorrow,
if the market is up tomorrow , in ur opinion, would the i fund theory be useful.
Tom , thank you for the info that u supply. it really helps when deciding about a transfer of funds.
how did u find the history of the thursday before good friday.
the odds are in our favor tomorrow,
if the market is up tomorrow , in ur opinion, would the i fund theory be useful.
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