2/05/13
Concern over the European debt crisis intensified again causing the market to see the largest losses of the year. The Dow gave back 130 of the 150-points it had gained on Friday.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 147"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0135%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.16%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.15%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.38%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The losses took most of the major indices down to the bottom of the narrow, short-term rising trading channels (red). That support has held all year on the S&P 500 but it is not as strong as the longer-term resistance line it flirted with last week.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq went from the top of its short-term channel, right to the bottom where it meets the 20-day EMA.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The small caps of the Russell 2000 also fell the lower end of the recent rising trading channel.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Should these short-term support lines break, most of them have another level of support modestly lower.
The dollar, which makes me look foolish every time I try to analyze it, bounced right back above that support line (red), but it has another level of resistance overhead (blue). Weakness in the European economy will usually give the dollar a boost.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
From sentimenTrader.com: "According to Hulbert Financial Digest, newsletters have increased their recommended stock exposure to 64.8%. The only two weeks that matched or exceeded that reading in the past five years were 4/23/10 and 4/29/11, both of which marked intermediate-term peaks for the S&P 500.
"At the same time, they have moved to a 50% recommended net short position for bonds. That has occurred close to short- to intermediate-term lows in Treasury Bonds over the past 15 years. Due to our agreement with Hulbert Financial Digest, our charts on the site will not be updated until Friday with these readings."
There are a lot of lines drawn in the sand on almost every major chart where we'll find out if short-term support, or in the case of the dollar - resistance, holds or if we start seeing stocks breakdown a little more modestly. Yesterday's 130 decline in the Dow, the day after a 150-point rally is nothing to get too worried about in and of itself, but the S&P 500 has been down 3 of the last 4 days and volatility is ticking up some so like any other time, its not an easy call.
If we rebound from here we'll say it was an easy call to stay with the trend. If the support breaks then the bulls will have to decide if they want to follow those who went out the door early. We should know our answer in the next day or two.
Administrative Note: RevShark is offering a free trial to his TSP Timing Service this week . Click here for some basic info on RevShark's service... or click here for information on how to gain access.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Concern over the European debt crisis intensified again causing the market to see the largest losses of the year. The Dow gave back 130 of the 150-points it had gained on Friday.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 147"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0135%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.16%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.15%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.38%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The losses took most of the major indices down to the bottom of the narrow, short-term rising trading channels (red). That support has held all year on the S&P 500 but it is not as strong as the longer-term resistance line it flirted with last week.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq went from the top of its short-term channel, right to the bottom where it meets the 20-day EMA.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The small caps of the Russell 2000 also fell the lower end of the recent rising trading channel.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Should these short-term support lines break, most of them have another level of support modestly lower.
The dollar, which makes me look foolish every time I try to analyze it, bounced right back above that support line (red), but it has another level of resistance overhead (blue). Weakness in the European economy will usually give the dollar a boost.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
From sentimenTrader.com: "According to Hulbert Financial Digest, newsletters have increased their recommended stock exposure to 64.8%. The only two weeks that matched or exceeded that reading in the past five years were 4/23/10 and 4/29/11, both of which marked intermediate-term peaks for the S&P 500.
"At the same time, they have moved to a 50% recommended net short position for bonds. That has occurred close to short- to intermediate-term lows in Treasury Bonds over the past 15 years. Due to our agreement with Hulbert Financial Digest, our charts on the site will not be updated until Friday with these readings."
There are a lot of lines drawn in the sand on almost every major chart where we'll find out if short-term support, or in the case of the dollar - resistance, holds or if we start seeing stocks breakdown a little more modestly. Yesterday's 130 decline in the Dow, the day after a 150-point rally is nothing to get too worried about in and of itself, but the S&P 500 has been down 3 of the last 4 days and volatility is ticking up some so like any other time, its not an easy call.
If we rebound from here we'll say it was an easy call to stay with the trend. If the support breaks then the bulls will have to decide if they want to follow those who went out the door early. We should know our answer in the next day or two.
Administrative Note: RevShark is offering a free trial to his TSP Timing Service this week . Click here for some basic info on RevShark's service... or click here for information on how to gain access.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
