06/19/13
The Dow gained 138-points keeping the triple digit moves coming. The gain was broad but volume was light in front of today's Fed press conference.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 305"]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 154"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.0050%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.78%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.94%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.46%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 is holding above the descending resistance line (red), but there is a small rising wedge (blue) that could cause problems. You can see how volume has been drying up as the index rallied off its recent low.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I could go over some indicators or talk about the breakout as a positive - and the chart does look pretty good, but my attention right now is still on the 1987 comparison. If we can get by this without any damage I will have likely missed out out on some decent gains and we'll go from there, but the volatility is high and I am taking note that something may be brewing and I'm playing it safe - just in case.
Here's the current intermediate-term chart. Looks nice...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
And here is the 1987 chart in about the same area...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
And of course here is what happened shortly afterward in 1987...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Of course there are many differences in the current conditions, but it's the chart formation I am watching. We have a debt bubble today that many expect to burst, but whether that happens this week or in a couple of years, no one really knows. If this current comparison is trying to tell us something, why not be ready for it? The doomsday December 21, 2012 believers may have been embarrassed when the world didn't end, but they were alive and probably have a nice stash of food for emergencies now. No harm, no foul.
The FOMC meeting started yesterday and today at 2:30 PM, I believe, Ben Bernanke's press conference begins. If he mentions the word "taper" (in the context of QE) you may see some panic ensue. Investors are so worried about this that if they hear the word "paper", or any word that rhymes with taper, there may be some selling first, ask questions later reaction. Ben should measure his words carefully, but we are set up for a sell-the-news reaction, despite the nice set up in many charts.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
The Dow gained 138-points keeping the triple digit moves coming. The gain was broad but volume was light in front of today's Fed press conference.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 305"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 154"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.0050%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.78%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.94%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.46%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 is holding above the descending resistance line (red), but there is a small rising wedge (blue) that could cause problems. You can see how volume has been drying up as the index rallied off its recent low.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I could go over some indicators or talk about the breakout as a positive - and the chart does look pretty good, but my attention right now is still on the 1987 comparison. If we can get by this without any damage I will have likely missed out out on some decent gains and we'll go from there, but the volatility is high and I am taking note that something may be brewing and I'm playing it safe - just in case.
Here's the current intermediate-term chart. Looks nice...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
And here is the 1987 chart in about the same area...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
And of course here is what happened shortly afterward in 1987...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Of course there are many differences in the current conditions, but it's the chart formation I am watching. We have a debt bubble today that many expect to burst, but whether that happens this week or in a couple of years, no one really knows. If this current comparison is trying to tell us something, why not be ready for it? The doomsday December 21, 2012 believers may have been embarrassed when the world didn't end, but they were alive and probably have a nice stash of food for emergencies now. No harm, no foul.
The FOMC meeting started yesterday and today at 2:30 PM, I believe, Ben Bernanke's press conference begins. If he mentions the word "taper" (in the context of QE) you may see some panic ensue. Investors are so worried about this that if they hear the word "paper", or any word that rhymes with taper, there may be some selling first, ask questions later reaction. Ben should measure his words carefully, but we are set up for a sell-the-news reaction, despite the nice set up in many charts.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
