Talk about macdtrader's account

[macdtrader]

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50% G, 5% F, 25% C, 15% S and 5% I effective tonight. Good work Tom! It seems that a bounce is coming to pass today in the equity markets as Tom forecasted. Time will tell if it is a dead cat bounce or a new bullmarket rally.I am increasing my exposure to stocks effective tonight. Since my indicators still look terribleI keeping 50% in G Fund.If wesee a rip snorting bull market rally today and Monday I will likely increase my allocation to the stock marketfunds next week. Everyone have a fabulous weekend and lots of luck with your TSP accounts!

 

[macdtrader]

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Moving to 45% g, 15% f, 20% c, 10% s, and 10% i effective tonight. I don't like thedirection of the c, s, and i fundsnow and am becoming more defensive.A bottom may or may notbe near butmy losses are becoming morepainful. Good luck to everyone!

 

[macdtrader]

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IFT to 50% C, 30% S and 20% I effective tonight. I realize this is a very risky allocation and your guesses are as good as mine about the future trends of the stock markets. That said,I am hoping for the wind atour backs to bring us a year end rally (as in 2004) asOctober ends today.

Historically, November and December are strong months and most years ending in 5 are positive years for the stock market. Gasoline prices are falling and the S&P 500 is higher. The London stock market ended almost 2.0% higher today. Rising interest rates may hurt us eventually but I feel that they are still relatively low.

Iwish all of you the very best of luck in your TSP accounts.

 

[Birchtree]

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Macdtrader,

From my humble perspective you are not in a very risky allocation - you have obviously planned your strategy for gains and you have to be in to win. I wish you good tidyings.

Dennis

 

[macdtrader]

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Thank you very much for your kind words,Birchtree. You are obviously one of themost successfulstock market expertson this website and we all look up to you.

Tonight I am making an interfund transfer to 40% C, 35% S, and 25% I.The 2005 end of year rally appears to be well underway and my TSP account reached a new17year high yesterday. I have found that I am not smart enough to jump from 100% G Fund into 100% C, S, or IFund on a frequent basis. With my limited knowledgeit ismore profitable tomake smaller portofolio adjustments. The uptrendsince the Veteran's Day weekend seems to be shifting in favor of large US stocks, i.e., the S&P 500.

Again let mewish the very bestof luck to all of myfellow TSP traders and investors. I fear that our national debt is growingso rapidly thatfederal and military retirees mayneed to be more financially self-reliant in thefuture. The only way I am aware of to do that withthe TSPvehicle is to invest more heavily in the stock market now while things are still going well.

 

[mlk_man]

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macdtrader wrote:

Thank you very much for your kind words,Birchtree. You are obviously one of themost successfulstock market expertson this website and we all look up to you.

This one of your alias's Birch? Just kidding......................

 

[Birchtree]

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mlk-man,

I appreciate your humor - after all you have had your battles and I can learn from a master strategist - it's just my turn. So I'll swing as it arrives - and you know it won't be pretty.

 

[macdtrader]

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mlk_man, I am not Birchtree. He only invests in the C Fund. I am a TSP trend watcher/follower or TSP momentum investor. Which approach is more risky? Each TSP investor must decide for himself or herself. I believe in going 100% stocks duringbull market rallies and reducingmy exposure to stocks gradually if I can determine thatthey arebegining to plummet. That is the expensivelessonI paid Wall Street $60,000 to learnin 2000 - 2002. Stock market bottoms are hard to identify whilethey are happening.If you think you may have found one, only afew investors like Tom have the courage to jump in 100%.

Tonight I will be allocatingas follows: 40% C, 40% S and 20% I. What a great month November 2005 has been! My TSP balance has risento a new record high several days in a row and added about $15K. It seems that S Fundnow has slightly more momentum than C Fund.A rising US Dollaroften puts the brakes onI Fund returns now. However,I Fund has sometimes beentoo explosively rewardingto omit from one's TSP portfolio. (Perhaps foreignersarebuying US Dollars to purchase US stocks or bonds?)

At http://www.businessweek.com, the macd signal was very timely for the S&P 500 and DWCP rally beginning late in October 2005. You will note that the Commodity Channel Index, Relative Strength, Bollinger Bands, Stochastics, and all other signals for the S&P 500 and DWCP indices are now pointing upward (green) forecasting a rosy future. Our risk may be increasing as Tom states everyday.....but, on the other side of the coin, who knows? In addition, if you buy now and catch a year end rally plus the great returns in 2006 Tomsuggests are coming, won't that be having your cake and eating it too?

(Disclaimer: My investment record is not perfect. Now that I have explained my philosophy of investing, the markets may drop sharply. Historical charts aregood butthey certainly cannot predict thefuture of the stock markets.Everyone please do your own homework,make wise,sound and prudentinvestment decisions, and enjoy excellent returns.)

Everyone have a wonderful Thanksgiving andgive thanks forthemany blessings which Americans have butsometimes take for granted!

 

[macdtrader]

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It looks and feels likethe 2005Year End stock market rally is underway. I hope that none of you will miss it.

Best Wishes to Everyone!

 

[macdtrader]

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30% C, 35% S, and 35% I effective tonight. I realize this is a risky allocation. However,with only 9 trading days left in December, I am hoping that the odds are truly in our favor and we getthe Santa Claus rally which Tom's seasonality chartpredicted in his daily messagelast Friday.

I sendeveryone my best wishes fora Merry Christmas with a gift ofsuccessful TSP investingin Decemberand a Happy New Year in 2006!

 

[macdtrader]

My 2005 unofficial TSP return was 8.5% but my real return was 5%.

Although I was not officially tracked by TSP Talk, by my own calculations my 2005 return was approximately 8.5%. Since then January 2006 was terrific and February is more difficult to predict.

Effective tonight I am reallocating to a more defensive portfolio: 40% G, 20% F, 10% C, 10% S, and 20% I. One reason is that all of the Business Week indicators have turned red and are pointing downward. I have not gone 100% G yet because I do not have 100% confidence in charts and indicators. In my opinion, we have to be somewhat aggressive to beat inflation. We never know when another 200 or 300 point increase will happen in the DJIA. We all need to catch a piece of those 200+ point gain days to improve our returns.

The government's official measure of inflation, CPI-W (1982-1984 = 100) rose from 186.0 in Dec. 2004 to 192.5 in Dec. 2006, an increase of 3.5% according to BLS data. Therefore my real return was only 8.5% - 3.5% = 5% in 2005.

I hope that all of you will invest wisely in 2006 and trounce the CPI!