Summertime Bonds Strategy

[eukrate]

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Here's the results of a little spreadsheet study I did. Used TSP monthly return data from Jan 1990 thru Nov 2003. Euro/dollar exchange rate from finance.yahoo.com. Summer strategy: In the summer months June-Sept,portfolio is 100% in F. In other months, 100% in C, unless dollar is
dropping, then 100% in I.
Results: 100% C for entire period: 162% cumulative return. Summer strategy: 242% cumulative return, which is 50% more!

Moral of this story: go to F in summer and make more money.

 

[tsptalk]

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Seems like a good way to beat the market's typicalsummer doldrums.Also, the Democratic Convention is scheduled for the end of July and I bet we won't see the the best the market has to offer this year until after the convention is over. Maybe bonds through the end of July.

 

[AllexBancs]

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Seems like this would be a great strategy in a stable or decreasing interest rate environment. But we have beat that to death in another series of posts.

Anyways, you may want to do some research at www.syharding.com. He has done a huge amount of research involving seasonal trading. I personally don't do it but I know of a couple of people who follow that dude religiously.

Good luck. AB

 

[zbwmy]

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Bancs,

Looks like I have already been doing this, (at least the winter portion), for 17 years.

I'm on FIRE

 

[eukrate]

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Thanks for the 'sysharding' reference. According to his results chart, he's recently been switching out of the market
in mid-April and back in mid-October (but his dates vary annualy). Similar to what I've suggested except he's been out in May. Going into bonds has produced better results than simply cashing out. Still checking on this...