Subprime Market

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UBS to report $3.4 billion subprime hit
First quarterly loss in nine years; exec changes, jobs cuts in the works

By Simon Kennedy, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:18 AM ET Oct 1, 2007

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- UBS will take a net third-quarter write-down of around 4 billion Swiss francs ($3.4 billion) tied to its subprime mortgage exposure and plans sweeping management changes and job cuts in its investment-banking division, the Swiss banking giant said Monday.


Events from the sub-prime seem to be loosing their impact. My guess is that the market believes that it has already priced in the effect of losses from this exposure or the risk has been spread so that the impact will not decimate the entire banking industry, thus little or no action on the two big stories today.
 
Boom, Bust in Area Beset by Foreclosures

By ADAM GELLER (AP National Writer)

From Associated Press
October 06, 2007 9:19 PM EDT
QUEEN CREEK, Ariz. - Out on Phoenix's suburban fringes, where cement mixers are fast colonizing what's left of the hay and cotton fields, the day is winding to a close. The home hour has arrived.

But sundown gives away a troubling secret: Behind dark windows and many unanswered doors, it's clear nobody is coming home.

The ranch home on Via del Palo where the newspaper in the driveway has been sitting unclaimed since April. The house at the corner of 223rd Court with faded fliers stuck in the door. The two-story on Via del Rancho with the phone book on the step.

They're all empty, left behind by a rising tide of foreclosures.

This neighborhood has a still-unfolding story to tell, and it is not always a comfortable one to hear.

Not long ago, builders were raising home prices here thousands of dollars week after week. Families pitched tents in front of sales offices and waited for Saturday morning lotteries to win the right to buy. Buyers - including more than a few speculators - gambled with loans whose risks were obscured by euphoria.

This is the tale of how America's real estate boom came to a seemingly ordinary subdivision called the Villages at Queen Creek, where the whipsaw of easy credit has led to some extraordinary times.

They were the best of times, for a while. The empty homes, though, raise serious doubts about what comes next.

As the nation confronts skyrocketing foreclosures, and policymakers try to contain a symptomatic credit crunch, what is happening here and in scores of similar neighborhoods is worth considering.

Because while the pressures at work in Queen Creek were extreme, the choices people made - and the consequences of those decisions - are not so different from those faced by thousands of other homeowners and their neighbors.

"Honestly," says Joy Kessler, a mother of three boys standing on the doorstep of the house she and her husband are surrendering to foreclosure, "if you were in this situation, what would you do?"

---

In June of 2004, Dave Gustafson took time off from his job as a supermarket produce manager, and the family headed to Arizona to visit relatives. The buzz of construction - and word of low home prices - convinced them to have a look around.

Dave and his wife Maryann liked what they saw.

Back in California, they had contented themselves with less than 1,100 square feet. But salesmen here showed them floor plans that would give them 2 1/2 times the space for half the price.

The place they liked the best was a subdivision called the Villages, a crescent-shaped warren of streets cradling a golf course, quickly filling with sand-colored stucco homes. The local schools had a good reputation. It was affordable. There was an extra-big lot on a cul-de-sac, with enough room in back for a pool.

"The sales person was saying that they (homes) were going up $1,000 a week," Dave Gustafson recalls. "So when we came to look, we signed right away."

Builders made it easy. A downpayment of $2,000 to $5,000 was all it took to get started. Buyers could borrow at low teaser rates, requiring payments of nothing more than interest.

As promised, home prices were going up faster than the houses themselves.

By the time the family's new home - a two-story model called The Starling with a cathedral ceiling in the living room - was completed the next spring, the $179,000 base price had climbed to $220,000.

"We were making money while we were waiting," Dave says.

The Gustafsons picked out Corian counters and maple licorice-finished cabinets at the builder's design center, and opted for a pool and a whirlpool bath, adding more than $50,000 to their loan. The interest rate was fixed for only two years, but they didn't worry. With prices rising so fast, they could always refinance. And in five or six years, the Gustafsons figured, they'd sell for $500,000 and downsize.

They hung a plaque over the dining table: "Home is Where Your Story Begins."

They were hardly the only ones feeling optimistic.

Kris Rowberry was ecstatic when the value of his home in nearby Gilbert started to take off. So he bought a second one in the Villages as an investment.

"I was thinking, man, if I could have 10 properties, I could just kind of retire ... and kick back and live off the income," says Rowberry, a nuclear safety inspector.

But the speculative mind-set confounded buyers like retiree David Pickering. When Pickering and his wife left Pennsylvania in August of 2004 for a new home in the Villages, they'd never heard of interest-only loans and the idea of buying a home as an investment hadn't occurred to them.

They were simply buying a place to live, hopefully for a good, long time.

Around them, though, such notions began to look very old-fashioned.

---

The American Dream is a myth overdue for revision.

http://enews.earthlink.net/article/nat?guid=20071006/47070840_3ca6_1552620071006-2022151592
 
Merrill's own subprime warnings unheeded
Mon Oct 29, 2007 2:22pm EDT

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN2962398720071029

By Al Yoon

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Merrill Lynch & Co Inc's own investment advice on subprime loans appears to have gone unheeded in its executive office.

Merrill Chief Executive Officer Stan O'Neal maintained an aggressive tack on subprime securities into 2007 even as investors began balking at the bonds and some in the industry labeled pricing as irrational.

Merrill Lynch (MER.N: Quote, Profile, Research) equity analyst Kenneth Bruce in September 2006 warned clients that companies with subprime exposure could face lower earnings, since demand for the debt "could dissipate quickly" as credit worsened. Bruce's call coincided with soaring prices on subprime bonds even as mortgage defaults escalated.

Bruce declined to comment, a Merrill spokeswoman said. He covers mortgage companies for Merrill.
 
I'm buying into the sector for my daughter - we got 87 positions so far and I imagine a few will go belly up - it's always a sacrifice to get the best prices and throw off income from their dividends. It's a game I dearly like to play.
 
UBS in Shareholder Plea as Subprime Fallout Weighs
UBS has appealed to its shareholders to back a capital injection by the Singapore government and a Middle East investor but warned it still cannot predict how the subprime crisis will play out. UBS's made the appeal in letter to shareholders released on Friday, and it comes after the New York Times reported Merrill Lynch is expected to suffer $15 billion in losses stemming from soured mortgage investments. The Swiss bank is braced for what looks set to be a stormy shareholder meeting on Feb. 27 when it will seek approval for a capital increase, resulting in the sale of a 9 percent stake to the Singapore government and around 1.5 percent to an unidentified Middle East investor.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22603854
 
Moody's reviewing Bank of America
NEW YORK - Credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service said Friday it placed Bank of America Corp. on review for a potential downgrade after the bank said it would acquire mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp. Moody's will review Bank of America for a possible downgrade based on the bank's ability and willingness to raise capital to support its balance sheet after completing the acquisition. Bank of America currently carries an investment-grade "Aa1" rating from Moody's.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22609035/for/cnbc/
 
Yes she is single. She is a 1LT with the 25th Infantry Division and we just set up three accounts to act as a conduit for her earnings. She will be returning to Iraq at the end of the year making a Captain salary and we are just doing a little long term planning picking up some undervalued assets with the idea of dividend reinvestments on automatic pilot. It's truly a simple plan and her money will never sleep.
 
Briefing.com
More federal bankruptcy judges are calling into question the business practices of CFC, as BAC prepares to buy the ailing mortgage lender. According to court documents in a bankruptcy case in Houston, Countrywide didn't properly credit a borrower's payments made during bankruptcy but instead applied them to prebankruptcy debt, which isn't allowed. In the same case, involving a debtor named William Allen Parsley, Countrywide represented to the court that Mr. Parsley owed fees that turned out to be unsubstantiated and in error. These included an improper $450 fee and a $65 unsubstantiated fee.
 
S&P's mortgage view confirms bond insurer woe
MBIA says agency's gloomier loss assumptions won't leave it short of capital. The rating agency increased its forecast for losses on subprime mortgages originated in 2006 to 19% from 14%, as delinquencies continue to rise. Such assumptions are important because S&P uses them to rate securities that are backed in part by those home loans. If projected losses are greater, ratings may have to be downgraded further. That's a potential problem for bond insurers which have guaranteed some of these securities. If more of their exposures are downgraded, rating agencies may decide that bond insurers need to hold more capital to back their guarantees. S&P said on Thursday that total projected losses in the bond insurance business will be 20% higher than previously expected. However, the rating agency stressed that those extra losses didn't cut into bond insurers' capital cushions much. It also didn't take any new rating action on companies in the industry.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...1-651D-4299-9699-FCED27F5A926}&dist=sp_inthis
 
MBIA, Ambac Tumble, Default Risk Soars After Losses
MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc., battered by losses from the collapse of the subprime mortgage market, fell the most ever in New York Stock Exchange trading on concern they will lose their AAA credit ratings. New York-based Ambac dropped 52 percent and Armonk, New York-based MBIA fell 31 percent as Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's increased their scrutiny of bond insurers. Credit-default swaps on both guarantors rose to records, signifying investors see a growing chance that the companies won't be able to pay their debt.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=afPiWbgEN8qU&refer=home
 
MBIA: Priced for Catastrophe
THE EQUIVALENT OF A MASSIVE METEOR strike hit the bond-insurer industry last week, which rendered even the leading concern, MBIA, a smoking crater. It was all the more surprising since earlier in the week MBIA seemed to have solved any rating-agency capital concerns by putting the finishing touches on a $2 billion capital raise, thereby seemingly halting the decline in the company's stock in the past eight months from 70 down to the middle-teens. Yet in the week's last three sessions the stock resumed its slide, plummeting some 60% at one point before settling Friday at around 8. The $1 billion of capital-surplus notes MBIA had issued earlier in the week to yield 14% had sunk in value to the mid-70s, for a yield- equivalent of more than 20%. Credit protection on MBIA's debt likewise jumped to a first-year cost of $3.1 million per $10 million of debt exposure and an insurance-premium cost of $500,000 a year for the next four years. This implies a more-than-70% chance that MBIA will default on its debt in the next five years. These sorts of numbers overstate the severity of MBIA's admittedly substantial problems.

The reasons behind the latest collapse are several. Worries have grown that MBIA's statutory capital -- which, following the completion of its capital raise, will stand at around $8 billion -- won't be enough to make good on the subprime-securities default risks embedded in a $652 billion portfolio insured at par value. And it didn't help that during the week, Standard & Poor's suddenly upped its projection of cumulative losses on 2006-vintage subprime mortgages from around 14% to 19%, which, if valid, might eliminate much of the subordination layer protecting MBIA from claims losses.
http://online.barrons.com/public/article/SB120071150488302379.html?mod=mktw
 
MGIC Shares Plunge With Rising Payouts
Shares of MGIC Investment Corp. plummeted more than 30 percent Wednesday, striking a 15-year low, after the nation's largest mortgage insurance company said paid losses could reach $2 billion this year. The Milwaukee-based company had said payouts could be as high as $1.5 billion in 2008, but raised that to a range of $1.8 billion to $2 billion late Tuesday citing fresh delinquencies and growing claim sizes.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080123/mgic_losses.html?.v=1
 
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