Strategy for IFT's Election week?

[2manyirons]

We have seen a lot of, what I call, " mountain and valley days", in the market lately.
Mountain when the market starts off early with large gains, then level off and start down, (traders taking profits). By the end of the day, not a lot of change.
Valleys when the market drops like the bottom fell out from under it, but later in the day it starts back up, (traders buying dips). At the end of the day, back up near the starting point.

My Question:
We (at least 1/3 of us I think), are looking for an opportunity to make some money from the election, with IFTs on or near Election Day, and timing a move to the G fund, avoiding the expected correction after.
Could this happen? We see a 3%-4% increase in the markets before noon, Tue or Wed., so we IFT to G, (to try to lock in our gains). But the big boys on Wall Street jump in taking their profits, before close. So we end the day with little or no gains.

Anyone care comment on the best strategy for IFTs, this coming week?

 

[Birchtree]

I've been sitting on 20% cash waiting for an opportunity to buy into the S fund at the golden price of $17.75. That may happen next week - if not I'll probably get back into my C and I fund positions. The I fund has been backing off nicely lately.

 

[fedgolfer]

here's my WAG the next few days... lackluster today, gap up tomorrow (huge)... possible follow through monday, regardless, it's a one or two day gap island reversal with a turnaround tuesday. Then we get some sale prices to do some real accumulation. Now that i've said it, we'll just shoot to the moon another 20%, HA!

 

[fedgolfer]

BTW, Oscar's recent vid was very interesting calling for 22 weeks of $/SPX symbiotic uptrend... that means the Gov/Fed has won the battle, as ugly as it may have been, and we're hitting a more intense inflation cycle as the economy/dollar/equities/job market start to improve. So, a run away bull market is still in the cards, especially since most traders hopped off the train in the short term oversold and toppy looking charts.

 

[nasa1974]

Now that i've said it, we'll just shoot to the moon another 20%, HA!

Let's go, I'm ready.

"To the moon Alice, to the moon"

 

[PessOptimist]

Great question. What to do?

Also a great fantasy, big up day tomorrow, all in to G COB tomorrow, big drop on fear of the election continuing through Friday while results are calculated and lawsuits filed, back in to equities COB Friday and a huge rise for the rest of the year.

Good luck everyone. Even the permabull(s) seem(s) to think we are due for some big pain followed by great pleasure. The question's are can you stand the pain and do you feel lucky?

 

[fedgolfer]

An investor would like that goldilocks GDP number better than a trader would like a giant gap up. I think the weekly charts are going to be telling the real story here. There's a good technical arguement gaining strength that we could do a breakout, then when the reversal comes, the support would be at the recent swing high.


looks like the past week or so is a left shoulder, and we could put in the head over the next week in the UDN:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UDN&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p13388424959

QQQQ's weekly says the continuation on the breakout of the cup & handle can go another 14% or so to `60'ish, or in layman's terms, the election is noise:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQQ&p=W&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p91996329033

 

[tsptalk]

How Elections Affect the Stock Market

"Will a Republican victory in the upcoming congressional elections help the stock market? Or will the market fare better if Democrats hold on to Congress and continue their much-criticized efforts to fix the struggling economy?"
​

Read more: http://www.kiplinger.com/columns/value/archive/how-elections-affect-the-stock-market.html#ixzz13ipWdK5f

 

[fedgolfer]

great article. If that second paragraph is in fact true, how could one not be long here? 100% success rate since 1942.

 

[nnuut]

We should LEARN from History!!

 

[tsptalk]

great article. If that second paragraph is in fact true, how could one not be long here? 100% success rate since 1942.

I know. As nervous as I have been about the market, I have been talking about this positive trend for a couple of weeks now in my commentary and blogs (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=738). It's tough to fight those stats.

But as I always say, as soon as you notice a trend and act on it, it's bound to change on you - Murphy's Law

 

[fedgolfer]

... that's why i like being long here. Almost everyone, bear/bull, Dem/Rep, is nervous or jumping ship. I'm surprised the bulls/bear ratio has so many bulls, all i hear is bears. So why I can't argue the ratio, I can say that there is negativity/pessimism and even fear... those are BUY emotions IMHO.

But, to play devil's advocate to my own arguement, even though 1942-2010 is a long time, it's a relatively small data set when you're talking mid-terms.

Still, 34 for 34 is a great batting average.

 

[Birchtree]

Yes, but a lot can happen in 200 days. Another 8% consolidation would be perfecto in the next two weeks. Hurt me, please.