07/11/25
The relentless rally continued on Thursday, and other than a fade into the close, the action was impressively broad, and the market breadth (advance / decline) was very strong. The small caps of the Russell 2000 did well (+0.48%) but that didn't translate into the S-fund leading as it only gained 0.22% on the day. The I-fund has been lagging in July with the dollar moving higher. Bonds were flat.
(The most current commentary is always posted here: www.tsptalk.com/comments.php)
It was a positive day for stocks on Thursday but by the close it didn't feel like a very strong day, however internally the numbers were actually quite impressive. The Nasdaq was only up 0.09% yesterday but the share volume was showing much more strength than that.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) continues to slide up the lower half of that ascending trading channel. The PMO indicator has been pinned near "2" which is probably frustrating the bears as this normally moves up and down with oscillating momentum, but the bulls have been relentless in recent months, keeping the bullish momentum alive.
How long that can last, we can only guess, but I continue to bring up that we have been in a bullish biased period, but that historic advantage does wane next week and particularly later in the month.
The 10-year Yield was up early yesterday, hit the 50-day average and rolled over, but once again it held at the 200-day average. The chart looks bearish (for yields), and bullish for bonds, but just staying flat is good and should give the stock market comfort. Any volatility here, up or down or both, could shake up the stock market.
The dollar has rallied most of the month and that has the I-fund lagging in July. However, the UUP is now testing some overhead resistance and which way it breaks from here could make or break the I-fund's relative performance compared the the C and S-funds.
The Dow Transportation Index - one of the market leaders and a good barometer for the economy, had a big day yesterday gaining 2.6%, but it also faded off the intraday highs. This index has lagged the three major indices this year, but yesterday was its highest closed since mid-February.
Next week we'll get some inflation data in the CPI and PPI reports, but we still have a couple of weeks before the Fed's next FOMC meeting and decision on interest rates.
DWCPF / S-fund made a higher high yesterday but it closed off the intraday highs and created a spinning top candlestick formation. This isn't a major warning or anything, but these patterns can be signs of indecision and can often precede a change in direction.
The ACWX (I-fund) lagged yesterday with a modest gain but it continues to hold firm on top of that rising support line. The dollar (see the UUP chart up top) is at an important pivot point where it will either break through resistance, or stall and rollover to the downside again, and whichever it is may determine if this trading channel will hold on. A strong dollar could knock it below support, although so far the strength in the dollar this month has only slowed the gains in the I-fund, rather than sending it lower.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was flat but it overcame a morning sell off to close a tick higher. The gap is still open inside the trading channel so it's a battle between the support of that old resistance line, and the lure of the open gap.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
The relentless rally continued on Thursday, and other than a fade into the close, the action was impressively broad, and the market breadth (advance / decline) was very strong. The small caps of the Russell 2000 did well (+0.48%) but that didn't translate into the S-fund leading as it only gained 0.22% on the day. The I-fund has been lagging in July with the dollar moving higher. Bonds were flat.
(The most current commentary is always posted here: www.tsptalk.com/comments.php)
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It was a positive day for stocks on Thursday but by the close it didn't feel like a very strong day, however internally the numbers were actually quite impressive. The Nasdaq was only up 0.09% yesterday but the share volume was showing much more strength than that.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) continues to slide up the lower half of that ascending trading channel. The PMO indicator has been pinned near "2" which is probably frustrating the bears as this normally moves up and down with oscillating momentum, but the bulls have been relentless in recent months, keeping the bullish momentum alive.
How long that can last, we can only guess, but I continue to bring up that we have been in a bullish biased period, but that historic advantage does wane next week and particularly later in the month.
The 10-year Yield was up early yesterday, hit the 50-day average and rolled over, but once again it held at the 200-day average. The chart looks bearish (for yields), and bullish for bonds, but just staying flat is good and should give the stock market comfort. Any volatility here, up or down or both, could shake up the stock market.
The dollar has rallied most of the month and that has the I-fund lagging in July. However, the UUP is now testing some overhead resistance and which way it breaks from here could make or break the I-fund's relative performance compared the the C and S-funds.
The Dow Transportation Index - one of the market leaders and a good barometer for the economy, had a big day yesterday gaining 2.6%, but it also faded off the intraday highs. This index has lagged the three major indices this year, but yesterday was its highest closed since mid-February.
Next week we'll get some inflation data in the CPI and PPI reports, but we still have a couple of weeks before the Fed's next FOMC meeting and decision on interest rates.
DWCPF / S-fund made a higher high yesterday but it closed off the intraday highs and created a spinning top candlestick formation. This isn't a major warning or anything, but these patterns can be signs of indecision and can often precede a change in direction.
The ACWX (I-fund) lagged yesterday with a modest gain but it continues to hold firm on top of that rising support line. The dollar (see the UUP chart up top) is at an important pivot point where it will either break through resistance, or stall and rollover to the downside again, and whichever it is may determine if this trading channel will hold on. A strong dollar could knock it below support, although so far the strength in the dollar this month has only slowed the gains in the I-fund, rather than sending it lower.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was flat but it overcame a morning sell off to close a tick higher. The gap is still open inside the trading channel so it's a battle between the support of that old resistance line, and the lure of the open gap.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
