Stocks rallied in from of yesterday's Rose Garden Tariff kickoff event which started after the closing bell, but it was another volatile day and you can feel the uncertainty in the air. The rally yesterday took the S&P 500 right up to the area of resistance that many bulls should be worried about, but if it can clear that hurdle, it would be all's clear. Unfortunately it wasn't looking too good in after hours trading.
The internal numbers were strong yesterday with advancing trading volume out pacing declining on the NYSE by a 3 to 1 margin, and the Nasdaq was 7 to 2 in favor of advancers, but was that a trap heading into the Tariff kick off? The indices and bond yields are at such interesting pivot points that it could go either way.
What some suspect might happen is that countries that were calling Trump's bluff may come to the table now that the tariffs are real, and that could set up a big rally if they relent, but for now the tariffs are going into place and here's the dilemma for stock market technicians:
The S&P 500 (C-fund) ran right up to resistance yesterday but hit a wall just before 5700. It pulled back slightly from that level but that is the key pivot point going forward. A gap up open today could have have opened the door to another big rally, but the reason it would be a big rally is because the resistance looks quite formidable at that 5700 area.
The 10-year Treasury Yield was up yesterday but it only made it to the bottom of the bear flag that it fell through earlier this week, and support, once broken, can become resistance. It was actually trading below 4.13% last night while Trump was still speaking, but who knows what will happen between then and the opening bell? Everything was whipping around widely.
I'm hearing many different stories and possibilities from economists, stock market analysts, and money managers. Some say this will be inflationary, some say it will be deflationary, some like me just have to wait and see. I don't believe anyone really knows for sure, including the Federal Reserve. The Plus subscribers know my plan, but there's been nothing easy about this.
We will get the March Jobs Report on Monday and estimates for the employment data are looking for a gain of 130K to 145K jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.1% to 4.2%.
The March TSP Talk AutoTracker winners have been posted in the forum. Congratulations to tom1tom1 for the 3.15% gain in the month, plus the other top finishers. Get in on the action - it's free!
I am reluctant to waste time posting the charts of DWCPF (S-fund), ACWX (I-fund), or BND (F-fund) from yesterday because of the changes they may be going through overnight.
I do usually post an updated chart sometime in the morning before the IFT deadline over in the forum in my tsptalk's Market Talk thread.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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The internal numbers were strong yesterday with advancing trading volume out pacing declining on the NYSE by a 3 to 1 margin, and the Nasdaq was 7 to 2 in favor of advancers, but was that a trap heading into the Tariff kick off? The indices and bond yields are at such interesting pivot points that it could go either way.
What some suspect might happen is that countries that were calling Trump's bluff may come to the table now that the tariffs are real, and that could set up a big rally if they relent, but for now the tariffs are going into place and here's the dilemma for stock market technicians:
The S&P 500 (C-fund) ran right up to resistance yesterday but hit a wall just before 5700. It pulled back slightly from that level but that is the key pivot point going forward. A gap up open today could have have opened the door to another big rally, but the reason it would be a big rally is because the resistance looks quite formidable at that 5700 area.
The 10-year Treasury Yield was up yesterday but it only made it to the bottom of the bear flag that it fell through earlier this week, and support, once broken, can become resistance. It was actually trading below 4.13% last night while Trump was still speaking, but who knows what will happen between then and the opening bell? Everything was whipping around widely.
I'm hearing many different stories and possibilities from economists, stock market analysts, and money managers. Some say this will be inflationary, some say it will be deflationary, some like me just have to wait and see. I don't believe anyone really knows for sure, including the Federal Reserve. The Plus subscribers know my plan, but there's been nothing easy about this.
We will get the March Jobs Report on Monday and estimates for the employment data are looking for a gain of 130K to 145K jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.1% to 4.2%.
The March TSP Talk AutoTracker winners have been posted in the forum. Congratulations to tom1tom1 for the 3.15% gain in the month, plus the other top finishers. Get in on the action - it's free!
I am reluctant to waste time posting the charts of DWCPF (S-fund), ACWX (I-fund), or BND (F-fund) from yesterday because of the changes they may be going through overnight.
I do usually post an updated chart sometime in the morning before the IFT deadline over in the forum in my tsptalk's Market Talk thread.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
