After a two-day pullback, stocks resumed their winning ways although the results were mixed. We saw a strong close but small caps did end in a negative territory, and once again a rally in the dollar hurt the I-fund. Bonds fell sharply. The Dow gained 70-points.
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 300"]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 163"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] +0.0063%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] -0.30%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] +0.29%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] -0.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] -1.07%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 69%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 (SPY) remained above the old resistance line, which is the first step in avoiding a more serious pullback.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Last week we talked about the S&P 500 being more than 150-points above the 200-day EMA, which percentage-wise (8.5%), is pretty extreme. The small dip last week helped, but it is still 138-points above the 200 EMA and that's a cautionary flag.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation Index (ETF) had a big day on Friday - gaining 1%, but the chart formation is basically the same as the S&P 500, although it is further above the old resistance line. This is the leader and it looks very healthy except the Transportation Index is now 12% above its 200-day EMA. That's a little scary.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The small caps pulled back most last week and it is the first major index to close below its 20-day EMA. So we have leader doing well but very extended (Trannies), and one pulling back below the first major moving average. Let's see which the S&P follows.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
It seems that every time I announce the breakdown of the dollar, it quickly rebounds. It has now been up 6 days in a row after breaking below a multi-year low a week or so ago. This is why the I-fund has been lagging lately. The dollar has now moved back above the 50-day EMA as well as the descending resistance line. It seems to have some room to run now, but every time I say something like that, it seems to dish me up some humble pie.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Bonds dropped sharply on Friday as yields rose with the dollar rallying. The first open gap was filled and there is another one near 101.50 on this 7 to 10 year Treasury ETF.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The trend on this ETF remains up but it is close to testing that rising support line. Filling the open gap, while testing the support line and the 50-day EMA, then rebounding would be a typical bullish move for bonds. If that does not hold, maybe the rally in bonds is over. We'll see.
In today's TSP Talk Plus report we go over some interesting sentiment data from newsletter writers, plus look at some divergences in the indicators. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 300"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 163"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] +0.0063%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] -0.30%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] +0.29%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] -0.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] -1.07%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 69%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 (SPY) remained above the old resistance line, which is the first step in avoiding a more serious pullback.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Last week we talked about the S&P 500 being more than 150-points above the 200-day EMA, which percentage-wise (8.5%), is pretty extreme. The small dip last week helped, but it is still 138-points above the 200 EMA and that's a cautionary flag.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation Index (ETF) had a big day on Friday - gaining 1%, but the chart formation is basically the same as the S&P 500, although it is further above the old resistance line. This is the leader and it looks very healthy except the Transportation Index is now 12% above its 200-day EMA. That's a little scary.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The small caps pulled back most last week and it is the first major index to close below its 20-day EMA. So we have leader doing well but very extended (Trannies), and one pulling back below the first major moving average. Let's see which the S&P follows.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
It seems that every time I announce the breakdown of the dollar, it quickly rebounds. It has now been up 6 days in a row after breaking below a multi-year low a week or so ago. This is why the I-fund has been lagging lately. The dollar has now moved back above the 50-day EMA as well as the descending resistance line. It seems to have some room to run now, but every time I say something like that, it seems to dish me up some humble pie.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Bonds dropped sharply on Friday as yields rose with the dollar rallying. The first open gap was filled and there is another one near 101.50 on this 7 to 10 year Treasury ETF.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The trend on this ETF remains up but it is close to testing that rising support line. Filling the open gap, while testing the support line and the 50-day EMA, then rebounding would be a typical bullish move for bonds. If that does not hold, maybe the rally in bonds is over. We'll see.
In today's TSP Talk Plus report we go over some interesting sentiment data from newsletter writers, plus look at some divergences in the indicators. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
